The market of commercial premises as part of residential complexes is actively developing, the highest demand is for small objects with an area of up to 150 square meters, said Ukrainian developers in a survey “Interfax-Ukraine”.
“The highest demand is observed for small areas (50-100 square meters) under cafes, pharmacies, beauty bars, and medium commercial areas (100-150 square meters) under clinics and grocery stores. Small and medium-sized areas are popular because they are easier to adapt to the needs of different businesses. Large areas (from 200 square meters) are in less demand, they are mostly occupied by supermarkets or restaurants,” the press service of KAN Development informed the agency.
The high demand for small commercial premises may indicate the high activity of small and medium-sized businesses looking for locations for coffee shops, salons, stores and offices, says Yuri Motuz, Director of Zezman Holding.
According to his data, about 58% of sales of commercial premises in the LCD in Odessa fall on objects with the area of 21-40 square meters. m. However, there is also a tendency for investors to purchase two small premises to combine into a large space (up to 200 square meters) for supermarkets, pharmacies, chain stores with warehouses.
The popularity of smaller premises is also due to their lower cost, said Anna Laevskaya, commercial director of Intergal-Bud.
“Investors are interested in commercial premises at different stages – both at the excavation stage and when the object is already ready. Everything depends on location and payment conditions. Smaller premises are sold faster because their cost is lower. Operators are actively expanding, entering new premises, and in general this segment is developing even better than the apartment market”, – she told in her commentary to ‘Interfax-Ukraine’.
According to the marketing director of DIM group of companies Daria Bedya, in general, investors’ requests to the developer to buy and rent commercial real estate as part of the LCD for the last three months have increased by 24% and 23% respectively.
“First of all, these data testify to the adaptation of Ukrainians and businesses to life in war conditions,” the expert emphasizes.
In addition to traditional cafes and restaurants, mix-format establishments are becoming increasingly popular in the LCD: a combination of cafes with flower stores or bookstores, said Irina Mikhaleva, CMO Alliance Novobud. Pet stores and grooming salons for animals are also gaining popularity.
“Owners of space make their own decision on what exactly to do. As a rule, they study the existing business infrastructure, weigh their options, studying supply and demand,” the expert explained.
At the same time, there is a tendency in the market to plan commercial space at the stage of concept creation and design of a residential complex, said Avalon’s operating director Yaroslav Vozniak.
“The builder or developer aims to form an ideal ecosystem of necessary infrastructure for apartment residents. Commercial space ‘advocates’ appeared at the level of project concept creation and subsequent design. Thus, the concept of “city in the city” and complexes with developed infrastructure appeared Long before the start of construction companies already understand what functions and business should be provided in certain places of the residential complex. Everything is for the sake of comfortable life or stay in the residential complex, for the sake of the resident,” he said.
This principle in the design of residential complexes is also adhered to in the company City One Development.
“We take into account the needs of the commercial segment at the design stage, offering a wide range of premises with different functional purpose. The most liquid commercial areas are premises with the size from 80 to 100 square meters, which are in the greatest demand among investors”, – reported in the press-service of the developer.
Alliance Novobud, Avalon, CITY ONE DEVELOPMENT, Daria Bedia, DIM, INTERGAL-BUD, Irina Mikhaleva, KAN Development. Zezman Holding, Yaroslav Vozniak, Yuri Motuz, Анна Лаевская.
The Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO) has already completed 30 projects under the Green Recovery of Ukraine program, created in response to Russia’s aggression in 2022, NEFCO Investment Advisor Yulia Shevchuk said in an interview withInterfax-Ukraine.
“We are actively working under this program. It now covers more than 60 projects, and several more are under development. Despite the war, we have already managed to complete 30 projects. The main areas of our work are improving the energy efficiency of public sector buildings, reconstruction and construction of new housing for internally displaced persons, as well as projects related to critical infrastructure. We work in the areas of water supply, heat supply, and waste management, contributing to their modernization and sustainable development,” Shevchuk said.
In total, NEFCO has managed to raise more than EUR 330 million for the green recovery program. Of this amount, approximately two-thirds was provided by the European Union, one-third by NEFCO’s founders, the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland), as well as the Eastern Europe Energy Efficiency and Environment Partnership (E5P) and the Nordic Environmental Development Fund (NMF).
JSC “Ukrtransnafta” has increased its stake in PJSC “Insurance Company Transmagistral” from 91.99% to 98.45%, according to the company’s information posted in the information disclosure system of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market (NCSSM). As reported on February 28, 2025, IC “Transmagistral” has increased the authorized capital to UAH 248 million by conducting an additional issue for the amount of UAH 200 million Additionally, 20 million shares with a par value of UAH 10 for the amount of UAH 200 million were sold.
As reported, the decision on the issue was made by the shareholders at the meeting on November 29, 2024.
Earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine agreed to the state of Ukraine indirect ownership of 92.4059% of shares of PJSC Insurance Company Transmagistral. Prior to that, on January 8, the NBU confirmed the company’s ownership structure compliance with transparency requirements.
As noted on the company’s website as of Q3 2024 the shareholders of the company were JSC “Ukrtransnafta” – 91,992%, Primary trade union organization of JSC “Ukrtransnafta” (Kremenchug, Poltava region) – 5,1%.
IC “Transmagistral” was registered in 2003, specializes on rendering services in the sphere of risk insurance.
Issue No. 1 – March 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
Since the beginning of March, the Ukrainian currency market has undergone significant changes in the dynamics of the dollar and euro. While the dollar was gradually strengthening in February, it began to decline in early March, followed by a gradual recovery after March 10, and the euro, after relative stability, began to grow.
Domestic Ukrainian factors had virtually no impact on this situation, which reflects global processes in the international currency market.
The main international factors that influenced the exchange rate dynamics:
Ø The start and further escalation of tariff wars launched by the administration of the new US president, which pose risks to US economic growth and accelerating inflation. This encouraged global investors to exit the dollar in search of more stable assets.
Ø The dollar is weakening on the global market due to softer statements by the US Federal Reserve. Investors have begun to expect a likely rate cut later this summer, which has weakened support for the dollar.
Ø The European Central Bank (ECB) had previously signaled possible stimulus to support the economy, which led to the euro’s weakness. However, since the beginning of March, EU macroeconomic indicators have improved, pushing the euro to strengthen.
Key internal factors affecting the Ukrainian FX market:
Ø Decreased demand for the dollar after a large-scale import of cash currency in February: according to the NBU, $1.316 billion in cash dollars and the equivalent of $450 million in euros were imported into Ukraine.
Ø The NBU’s interventions help to smooth out exchange rate volatility and maintain a controlled market situation.
Ø Increased budget expenditures in March traditionally create additional demand for foreign currency, which may affect the correction of the hryvnia exchange rate.
Exchange rate dynamics
Ø Since the end of February, the dollar has been accelerating its pronounced downward trend, slipping from the average of UAH 41.42-41.97/$ to UAH 41.1-41.65/$. This downward trend primarily reflects the situation on the global currency market and the lack of domestic drivers for the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate amid decreasing pressure on the national currency and a temporary decline in demand for the dollar. The appreciation observed since March 10 may be only a temporary correction, which generally reflects the temporary volatility of the US currency.
Ø In contrast, the euro hryvnia exchange rate moved in the opposite direction. Since the beginning of March, it has soared from 43.35-44.05 UAH/€ to 44.46-45.15 UAH/€, effectively returning to the level of mid-January this year after a long slump. This behavior of the euro is also entirely due to external factors.
Much more informative for analyzing the state of the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is the dynamics of spreads between buying and selling rates, which are an indicator of market liquidity and allow us to diagnose the level of uncertainty among its key operators.
Ø In March, we saw the average spread for the dollar narrow below February’s levels, from 50-60 kopeks to 40-50 kopeks, and in some cases to 30 kopeks. This indicates a balanced supply and demand for the US currency.
Ø For the euro, the average spread increased from 50-60 kopeks to 70-80 kopeks, as the sharp rise in the euro made the market less predictable, forcing banks and exchange offices to put in higher margins.
Thedeviation of the market rate from the NBU’s official exchange rate remained insignificant, confirming that the regulator’s currency policy is in line with the market balance. However, for the euro, this deviation increased in the second half of March, indicating that the market reacts more quickly to global factors, often outpacing the NBU’s official exchange rate adjustments.
USD exchange rate outlook
Ø In the short term, over the next 2-4 weeks, the dollar is likely to remain in the range of UAH 41.30-42.30 per dollar. The main factor that will influence the situation will be the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, as well as possible decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding the discount rate. If the NBU continues to actively intervene in the market through interventions, exchange rate fluctuations will be minimal.
Ø During the spring months, in the medium term (2-4 months), the dollar may move to the range of UAH 41.50-42.50 per dollar. In this period, the demand for foreign currency is expected to increase, in particular due to increased budget spending and import activity by businesses. An additional, though unlikely, risk is possible delays in international financial assistance, which could put temporary pressure on the hryvnia.
Ø In the longer term, i.e., over 6 months, the dollar has the potential for gradual appreciation due to the persistence of key factors of depreciation pressure on the hryvnia. If economic conditions remain unchanged, it may return to the range of UAH 42.50-44.00 per dollar, but we should remember the budget exchange rate target of UAH 45 per dollar, which leaves room for the exchange rate to be used for fiscal purposes to manage budget revenues. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s policy may affect global dollar liquidity: if the regulator begins to ease monetary policy, the US currency will remain relatively stable despite the hryvnia’s devaluation.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Ø In the coming weeks, the euro is likely to reach and stabilize in the range of UAH 44.80-45.70 per euro. After a sharp jump, the market may enter a correction phase where there will be no significant fluctuations.
Ø In the medium term, over the next 2-4 months, the dynamics of the euro will largely depend on the policy of the European Central Bank. If the ECB continues its measures to support economic growth, the euro may remain in the range of UAH 44.50-46.00 per euro. At the same time, the euro may weaken somewhat if there are prerequisites for a stronger dollar or if negative economic news from the EU.
Ø In the long run, the euro has the potential for relative stability or moderate growth. If the economic situation in Europe improves, the euro may remain in the range of UAH 45.00-46.50 per euro. However, as in the case of the dollar, macroeconomic factors and risks to the European economy may have a significant impact on the euro’s further dynamics.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
Diversifying your portfolio across currencies and assets is more important than ever: consider your individual needs first. Depending on where and how long before you plan to spend your foreign exchange in euros or dollars, this currency should be the dominant currency in your savings portfolio to avoid conversion losses. Other reserve currencies in your portfolio should act as a stabilizer: when one currency falls, the other rises, compensating for at least part of the exchange rate losses.
Regularly analyze and revise the structure of foreign currency savings: in the current turbulence and poor predictability in international currency markets, you should analyze the appropriateness of the current portfolio structure at least once a month and adjust it if necessary.
Currency speculation: In general, the current situation is quite favorable for cautious speculation, but it will require careful monitoring of key indicators and information signals to respond to changes in market trends in a timely manner. Experienced investors can take advantage of the current opportunities, while inexperienced investors should stick to conservative strategies focused on preserving their savings.
As for the hryvnia, we reiterate our recommendation to hold it only in the amount necessary to finance current expenses, service short-term financial obligations, and for unforeseen expenses in special life situations.
The basic recommendation for all currencies is to keep all savings as liquid as possible, avoiding long-term investments. This will ensure freedom of maneuver in the face of currency turbulence and poor predictability that will accompany us at least in the medium term.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
The volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economy of mainland China in January-February decreased by 20.4% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 171.21 billion yuan ($23.87 billion), according to the Ministry of Commerce. The manufacturing industry accounted for 47.82 billion yuan, and the service sector for 120.49 billion yuan.
At the same time, the UK’s FDI in China grew by 87.9%, Germany’s by 54.7%, and South Korea’s by 45.2%, Xinhua cited the ministry’s data.
At the same time, 7,574 thousand new enterprises with foreign capital were registered in the country in two months, which is 5.8% more than their number in the same period in 2024.
As reported, the volume of FDI in 2024 fell by 27.1% to 826.25 billion yuan. This is the largest decline in the history of calculations (since 2008).
As of March 13, Ukraine sowed 83 thousand hectares of spring grains and legumes in 15 regions, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
According to the report, a week ago, the work was carried out in two southern regions – Mykolaiv and Odesa. Now they have been joined by 13 more regions.
Currently, barley has been sown on 45.2 thousand hectares, peas – on 17.8 thousand hectares, spring wheat – on 12.9 thousand hectares, oats – on 7.2 thousand hectares.
Ternopil – 15.2 thousand hectares, Volyn – 11 thousand hectares, Rivne – 10.84 thousand hectares, Vinnytsia – 10.1 thousand hectares and Mykolaiv – 10 thousand hectares are the leaders in sowing spring crops.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reminded that in 2025 Ukraine plans to plant more than 5.7 mln ha of spring grains and legumes, which corresponds to the level of 2024. The new season is characterized by the increase in the area under spring wheat by 28% (to 222.8 thou hectares), which is due to the growing demand from processors and exporters.
As reported, in 2024 the sowing campaign started on February 29. As of March 14, the sowing campaign was conducted in 14 regions of Ukraine, where 128.1 thou hectares of grains and pulses were planted, including 12.9 thou hectares of wheat, 69.6 thou hectares of barley, 41.5 thou hectares of peas and 3.7 thou hectares of oats.
