Ukraine exported almost 1.7 million tons of corn as of December 23, and by the end of the month the total volume will exceed 2 million tons, despite problems with shipments at the beginning of the month that slowed down the pace of exports, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
According to analysts on the UAC’s Facebook page on Thursday, corn prices are stable at $205-207 per ton on a CPT basis. They predict that corn has the potential to reach $210-215/ton in January. The key factor that may affect further price growth is weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
“The corn market is in a kind of “golden period”. In January, any importer who wants to receive supplies has to turn to Ukraine, as the US corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate the price. However, it is important to remember that in February-March we may face competitive pressure on the European market due to cheaper U.S. corn,” the experts said.
They pointed out that Ukrainian corn remains the main player on the European market, while the US actively exports to Latin America and Mexico. However, the price difference between Ukrainian and American corn on the European market is about $10 in favor of American products.
According to forecasts, in January the market will be sensitive to news about the sowing campaign of the second harvest in Brazil and the condition of crops in Argentina, where there are already problems with moisture.
“Over the past 10 years, only twice the corn market has been stable in January and February without significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the probability of getting higher prices during this period is quite high. But in April-May, corn may become a scarce commodity, which will again create preconditions for price growth,” Pusk summarized.
