The corn market is gradually shifting its focus to the new harvest, last year’s grain has almost lost its liquidity, and there are practically no real deals with it, At the same time, Europe is showing steady interest in
Ukrainian products, and demand from importers remains high, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The new corn harvest is valued on the market in a wide range of $197-203 per ton. Some traders are already offering higher prices — $205-206 on a CPT-port basis with deliveries in October-November. Demand from importers is active, particularly from Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands, with deliveries in November-December. The EU is facing serious yield problems. In France, the first threshing showed only 3-4 tons/ha. Other corn producers — Romania, Hungary, and Poland — are facing similar difficulties, forcing the EU to increase imports from the projected 18-19 million tons to 22-23 million tons, and Ukraine looks to be a key supplier here,” analysts noted.
According to their information, Ukrainian exporters have already sold about 4 million tons of the new harvest to importers with deliveries in November-December. However, there may be a shortage on the market due to weather conditions, which will further stimulate the growth of purchase prices.
“Traders may have to raise prices, but no significant growth is expected. One of the determining factors will be the progress of the harvesting campaign. Due to the delay in vegetation, the first significant batches of corn from the center and north will arrive only in the second half of October. We can predict indicative prices of $220 CPT port in October. However, during this period, American corn will actively enter the market. Its volume will significantly exceed demand, which will put serious pressure on prices in October-December. Therefore, in November-January, the market is likely to stabilize at $220-230 CPT port per ton, which is in line with seasonal patterns,” Pusk concluded.
