Exports of agricultural products in December 2023 should exceed 6 million tons, which became possible due to the opening of the Ukrainian shipping route, said Maksym Kharchenko, analyst at UkrAgroConsult, an information and analytical agency.
“Exports of agricultural products in December 1-15 totaled 3.38 million tons, which is 20% more than in the same period of the previous month. At the same time, the share of land exports in total exports decreased to 14.1% amid increased activity of seaports. At the same time, the role of the Danube ports in the first half of December was the lowest for the whole of 2023,” he said.
According to him, the rate of exports of agricultural products by road decreased by the end of the year due to the continuation of strikes in neighboring European countries. Currently, a queue of almost 4,000 trucks has formed to enter Ukraine from Poland. The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine says that by the end of this year, Ukraine and Poland may come to a common position on blocking the borders.
“It should be noted that vegetable oils remain the main commodity transported by road for export,” UkrAgroConsult said.
Speaking about the export of agricultural products by rail, analysts noted that its pace in the first weeks of December is only slightly behind the pace of previous months. The total export volume in December is forecast at 800-900 thousand tons, which does not differ from the average for the last four months. Export flows by rail have not yet had time to reorient towards seaports.
UkrAgroConsult reported that as of December 19, 6.6 thousand railcars with grain (or about 400 thousand tons) were heading to Ukrainian seaports via domestic rail transportation, which is almost a thousand more than a week earlier.
At the same time, exports by sea through the ports of the Danube region in the first half of December amounted to only 0.56 million tons, which is far behind the same period last month.
“The Danube region is gradually losing its attractiveness for exporters due to the opening of a much cheaper option for exporting through Odesa ports,” analysts explained.
Partly due to the activity of the ports in the Danube region, in January-November, the Romanian port of Constanta shipped 32.6 million tons of grain, setting a record (the previous annual record was just over 25 million tons). Ukrainian grain amounted to 13 mln tons, or about 40% of the total transshipment volume. In 2022, the volume of transshipped agricultural products from Ukraine in the port of Constanza amounted to 8.6 million tons, UkrAgroConsult stated.
