Ukraine is seeing a steady trend toward reducing acreage for grain crops in favor of oilseeds, driven by a significant difference in their profit margins, said Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“The profitability of wheat production, and of grains in general, is currently lower than that of oilseeds. This trend has been clearly evident over the past few seasons. While before the full-scale invasion, the area under wheat was significantly larger than that under sunflowers, the situation has changed since 2023: sunflower crops in Ukraine have become more stable and extensive than grain crops,” he said during the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to UkrAgroConsult, the profitability of wheat cultivation in the current season is less than 30%, while for sunflowers this figure reaches about 50%. The profitability of other oilseed crops—rapeseed and soybeans—remains at a similarly high level.
The analyst emphasized that despite the loss of some territories, the area under oilseed crops has not only recovered but, in some segments, has exceeded pre-war levels. This reflects farmers’ strategic shift away from grains in favor of more profitable crops.
According to the infographic, the crop mix of major export crops in Ukraine is shifting in line with profitability indicators. Until 2022, wheat led in terms of acreage, but its unprofitability—at -14.9% in 2022 and -1.8% in 2023—forced farmers to rethink their priorities. The graph shows a so-called “inflection point” in the 2022/23 season, after which sunflowers finally surpassed wheat. Currently, it offers the highest profitability at 48%, while the profitability of wheat and corn stands at only 26% and 23%, respectively, which serves as an incentive for farmers to further expand the acreage under oilseed crops.
“We are seeing an increase in production across all oilseed crops. In particular, we expect the sunflower harvest (in the 2026/2027 season – IF-U) to grow to 13.7 million tons due to better yields and increased acreage,“ forecasts ”UkrAgroConsult.”
Ukraine’s grain market is entering the 2026–2027 marketing year (MY, July–June) under significant pressure due to accumulated stocks and intensifying global competition, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“The key factor remains the accumulation of carryover stocks, which could reach about 10.7 million tons, putting pressure on prices,” analysts noted.
According to their forecasts, gross grain production in Ukraine in the 2026 season is expected to reach about 60.3 million tons, with about 51 million tons to be exported to foreign markets.
UkrAgroConsult identified the growing role of logistics, costs, and global competition as the main trends of the season. According to analysts’ estimates, export dynamics will be shaped by the need to unload the market, and the market itself will shift to a buyer’s market.
Oilseed production in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 season will show growth due to high margins and the development of domestic processing, according to the information and analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.
Analysts noted that sunflower will remain a priority crop for farmers. At the beginning of 2026, sunflower seed prices approached UAH 30,000/t, which encourages farms to expand their crops. The area under this crop in the new season may increase to 6.1 million hectares.
The soybean and rapeseed markets remain stable. At the same time, domestic processing of these crops is growing in Ukraine, which strengthens the country’s role in the Black Sea region. An increase in gross seed harvest will stimulate plant utilization and further growth in oil and meal exports.
Among the key trends for the 2026/27 season, UkrAgroConsult named the preservation of oilseeds as one of the most profitable segments of agricultural production, with sunflower maintaining its leading position. Analysts also predict an increase in processing capacity utilization and a further increase in exports of processed products amid relative stability in the soybean and rapeseed markets.
Ukrainian farmers expanded their sunflower production area by 3.3% in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) compared to the 2024-2025 MY, given its attractive prices in the past poor harvest year, and the harvest will be 3% higher, according to forecasts by the industry analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.
The agency expects that the sunflower harvest forecast for 2025/26 MY will be 3% higher than last year, given that the sunflower market is the “grayest” among other oilseeds.
“Currently, harvest statistics show low yields. Expectations that the northward and westward progress of the harvest will significantly increase yields have not been confirmed. Yields are increasing but remain quite low,” experts explained.
They recalled that in 2024/25 MY, the sunflower harvest was 20% lower than in 2023/24 MY and at the same time became the lowest since 2016/17 MY. At the same time, the sown area was reduced by 2%, and the yield by 18%.
The share of domestic processing of the harvest in 2024/25 MY remained high at 97% due to the cessation of active outflow of raw materials for export, while sunflower oil exports became minimal since 2026/17 MY (-24% compared to 2023/24 MY). Almost the entire season was marked by farmers’ restraint in selling sunflower seeds. Accordingly, sunflower meal exports were also minimal over the last three seasons (-27% compared to 2023/24 MY).
“In general, the 2024/25 marketing year can be characterized as a crisis, which led to a balance between limited resources and the desire to maintain Ukraine’s position in the global market for sunflower processing products,” UkrAgroConsult stated.
Consulting agency UkrAgroConsult forecasts a 5.7% decline in sunflower harvest in the 2025 season to 13.3 million tons from 14.1 million tons in the previous forecast due to drought in southern and eastern Ukraine, the agency’s press service reported.
“Crop losses are mainly observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly affected crops. In contrast, the situation is more favorable in the northern and western regions, where rains have been regular. Sunflower yields are expected to increase during harvesting in the northwestern belt, as was the case with wheat and barley,” the agency said.
Analysts added that market estimates of the sunflower harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 million tons. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult sticks to the upper end of the estimate due to the expansion of acreage in the west and north after the start of the war. However, seed quality is a concern due to diseases caused by rains during harvesting in these regions.
UkrAgroConsult has more optimistic forecasts for corn.
“The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and crops in the south account for a small share. This year’s pollination and grain filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to last year, and periodic rains contributed to crop development,” experts said.
Market estimates of the corn harvest range from 28 million tons to 35 million tons, but at the end of July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons, or 6.6%, which is one of the highest figures on the market.
UkrAgroConsult’s wheat harvest forecast remains stable at 22 million tons. As of August 7, almost 15 million tons had been harvested from 74% of the planted area. The remaining 26% is in regions with the highest yields, which gives grounds for optimism, the agency concluded.
Despite the negative expectations, Ukraine retained its leadership in the global sunflower oil market in 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), accounting for 42% of the global production, while Russia accounted for 29%, UkrAgroConsult, a Ukrainian information and analytical agency, reports.
The analysts referred to the forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, according to which in 2023-2024 MY the forecast for Ukraine’s gross sunflower production due to higher yields was increased by 27% to 15.5 mln tonnes compared to 2022-2023 MY, and for Russia – by 5% to 17.1 mln tonnes.
The high exports of sunflower oil were achieved due to the increase in harvest. Stable operation of the sea corridor is becoming an important point for Ukraine in realization of the export potential: the country increased exports by 9% compared to 2022-2023 MY, Russia – by 10%, experts noted.
They noted that since the beginning of the war, the markets for sunflower oil have been redistributed. For Ukraine, the European Union has become the key sales destination. In addition, Turkey has reoriented its purchases from Russia to Ukraine, while India and China continued to increase Russian imports.
According to analysts’ forecast, 2024-2025 MY will be a bad harvest year for sunflower. According to the current USDA forecast for September 2024, the global sunflower production is estimated to be the lowest in the last four seasons due to unfavorable weather conditions in the key producing countries – 50.6 mln tonnes, which is 10% less than the previous season. At the same time, Ukraine is expected to reduce the production of this crop by 19% to 12.5 mln tonnes compared to 2023-2024 MY, and Russia – by 6% to 16.0 mln tonnes.
“Ukraine will retain the leadership, but the share in the global production will decrease to 41% vs. 42% in 2023/24 MY in favor of Russia – 33% vs. 29%. The forecast for Russia seems quite optimistic,” UkrAgroConsult stated.
