Prices for motor fuel will stabilize in early August after new batches of fuel will enter the market, taking into account excise duty in the price structure, according to the director of consulting group “A-95” Sergei Kuyun.
“This will happen when the volume of fuel with a new tax burden, which began to be cleared from July 1, will fully replace the old stocks. According to our expectations, this will happen in early August,” the expert said at a briefing at Ukrinform on Monday.
According to Kuyun, the wholesale market, which reacts much faster to fiscal changes, can serve as a certain predictive indicator for future fuel prices on the retail market.
“The wholesale market is characterized by the fact that operators have no residuals there, they work very quickly and incorporate all new circumstances and factors into prices very quickly. The wholesale market began to grow back in late June and today we have the following picture: for gasoline A-95 prices have increased by 7.74 UAH/liter, for diesel fuel – by almost 7 UAH/liter. In this market new taxes are already in place and it can be projected on future retail prices,” – said the director of “A-95”.
In turn, according to the consulting group, for the first week of July in the retail price of A-95 in the first week of July on average rose by 3 UAH – to 47.90 UAH / l, diesel fuel – by 3.45 UAH, to 46.86 UAH / l, liquefied gas – by 1.47 UAH, to 23.39 UAH / l.
“The main factor in the price rise was VAT, as this tax is paid immediately at the time of sale and immediately automatically came into effect. Further we expect that the price will gradually increase already at the expense of excise duty, excise duty is paid at the time of crossing the border,” the expert explained.
As he recalled, the tax burden on motor fuels from July 1 increased on A-95 – by 11 UAH/liter, diesel fuel – by 8 UAH/liter, liquefied gas – by 3 UAH/liter.
According to the director of “A-95”, in June in Ukraine there was a record level of imported diesel fuel supplies since the beginning of full-scale Russian aggression at the level of 650 thousand tons.
“Accordingly, this indicates that traders were preparing for this, brought a lot of low-tax fuel. This stock will now be realized and gradually motor fuel with new taxes will come to the market. And when this stock rotation is completed, then we can talk about the full integration of new taxes into the price,” summarized the expert.
As reported, in mid-March 2022, the Rada adopted a law on additional tax incentives to support business during the war, aimed, among other things, at keeping fuel prices down. According to it, temporarily, for the period of martial law, zero excise tax and VAT of 7% instead of 20% were set on fuel.
On September 21, 2022, the Rada passed Bill No. 7668-d on the return of excise taxes on motor fuel, setting them at EUR100 for gasoline and diesel (hereinafter – per 1,000 liters), EUR52 for liquefied gas, butane and isobutane, and EUR100 for alternative motor fuel and biodiesel. VAT for all types of fuel remained at 7%.
However, according to this document, from July 1, 2023 the level of fuel taxes returned to the pre-war level: VAT – to 20%, excise duty on gasoline – to EUR213, on diesel – to EUR140 per 1,000 liters.
