The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that gas imports will rise to $2.9 billion in 2025 due to Russia’s destruction of gas infrastructure, which will be partially financed by international partners.
“In the forecast period, production will gradually recover, but it will be insufficient to fully cover the domestic needs of the economy, including industry, housing and communal services, and households,” the National Bank said in its Inflation Report for April 2025.
The regulator expects gas procurement needs to gradually decline in 2026 to about $1.1 billion and fall to $0.4 billion in 2027.
“The continuing electricity deficit and losses in the gas production industry will hamper GDP recovery over the forecast horizon and increase the dependence of the energy and industrial sectors of the economy on imports, which will generate corresponding price risks that may be passed on to consumer prices,” the NBU added.
It is noted that significant risks of further destruction of energy infrastructure remain, and their realization could further dampen GDP growth and increase inflationary pressures. At the same time, the possibility of a faster recovery of the electricity or gas infrastructure or the introduction of new capacities remains a positive factor for the forecast.
As reported, during three years of full-scale invasion, Russia has carried out more than 30 massive complex attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, causing billions of dollars in damage.
According to the former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (OGTSU), Serhiy Makogon, given the volume of its own production, Ukraine will need to import 5.5-6.3 billion cubic meters of gas by the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require approximately $2.5-3 billion. According to his estimates, by the start of the next heating season, it is necessary to have at least 9 billion cubic meters of reserves (excluding buffer gas) in underground gas storage facilities, as this year’s experience has shown that starting the season with lower reserves is extremely risky, since by the end of the season reserves fell to approximately 0.68 billion cubic meters.
In turn, Dmitry Abramovich, a member of the board and commercial director of the Naftogaz group, said at the end of March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas by November 1 this year.
Since the beginning of this year, Naftogaz has contracted 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas: 800 million cubic meters were urgently imported at the beginning of the year, 400 million cubic meters will arrive in the country in preparation for next winter, and another 300 million cubic meters of LNG were purchased by Naftogaz from Poland’s ORLEN. The company is also negotiating with the government and international financial institutions to attract EUR 1 billion in financing to purchase more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
According to Makogon, guaranteed gas import capacity is approximately 50 million cubic meters per day, so it will take three months to import 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas and four months to import 5.6-6.3 billion cubic meters, assuming 100% capacity utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve.
Thus, he believes that in order to import the necessary volumes by November 1, it is necessary to start importing significant volumes of gas as early as May.
