Ukraine’s construction market is showing mixed trends at the start of 2026: infrastructure and engineering construction remains the main driver, while the residential and part of the commercial segments continue to face pressure from rising costs, limited effective demand, and military risks. However, complete official statistics for January–March 2026 have not yet been published: according to the statistical agencies’ calendar, construction data for January–March is expected to be released in late April, so the current picture as of April 10 is based primarily on January–February results and related first-quarter indicators.
After a 12% increase in the volume of completed construction work in 2025—to UAH 248.1 billion—the market entered 2026 with a higher base, but growth rates began to level off as early as the first few months. In January, the volume of construction work grew by 3.3% year-over-year to UAH 11.254 billion, while building construction declined by 6.5%—including residential construction by 12% and non-residential construction by 4%—while civil engineering added 15.5%. Based on the results for January–February, the market already showed a 1.8% year-over-year decline to UAH 23.04 billion: the residential segment fell by 11.5%, the non-residential segment by 9.5%, while civil engineering structures, conversely, grew by 8.5%.
Rising construction costs remain a separate factor putting pressure on the market. According to the State Statistics Service, in February 2026, prices for construction and installation work rose by 7.2% compared to February of last year, and by 6.5% for the January-February period. In residential construction, price growth over two months was 6.1%, in non-residential construction—6.9%, and in civil engineering—6.4%. This means that even if certain growth areas remain stable, the profit margins of developers and contractors remain under pressure, especially in projects where sales prices or budget limits cannot keep pace with rising construction costs.
The residential segment, meanwhile, continues to present a mixed picture. On the one hand, the National Bank noted in its January inflation report that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of projects where construction began rose by 19% year-over-year, including a 77% increase in residential projects, and the number of buildings commissioned increased by 21%, including residential housing—by 40%. On the other hand, the NBU noted in its December Financial Stability Review that sales in unfinished projects remain sluggish, especially in the early stages of construction and in less secure regions, and housing prices in most regions are changing only slightly, indicating subdued demand.
Preferential mortgages remain a key support mechanism for the primary market. As of early April 2026, banks had issued 2,152 loans totaling 4.19 billion UAH under the “eOselya” program since the start of the year, and a total of 24,765 families have purchased housing since the program’s inception, for a total of 43.1 billion UAH. At the same time, in just one of the latest weekly reports, 101 out of 158 loans were for “first-sale” housing, including 48 loans for apartments in buildings under construction. This confirms that part of the demand for new housing in 2026 continues to be driven by state-subsidized mortgages.
According to Maksim Urakin, founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, in January–March 2026, the Ukrainian construction market entered a phase of more complex but more mature growth. “It is no longer possible to speak of a single construction boom. Ukraine is effectively operating in three parallel markets: the first is reconstruction and engineering infrastructure, where demand remains stable; the second is the locally active residential segment in relatively safe regions; the third consists of frozen or very slow-moving projects in high-risk zones. The main trend at the start of 2026 is not simply volume growth, but a redistribution of capital toward infrastructure, logistics, industrial, and social real estate,” Urakin believes.
In his assessment, the market will depend on three factors in the coming months: continued funding for reconstruction, the sustainability of the “eOselya” program, and companies’ ability to maintain construction costs. “If state and international reconstruction programs maintain their pace, and mortgage instruments continue to support primary demand, the construction sector will be able to remain in positive territory in 2026. But without an expansion of long-term financing and a reduction in military risks, the housing market will grow in isolated pockets rather than across the board,” noted the founder of Experts Club.
Overall, the start of 2026 shows that Ukraine’s construction market remains vibrant and adaptable, though its growth is becoming increasingly segmented. Infrastructure, logistics, and restoration projects are performing the most steadily, while mass residential construction still depends on security, affordable mortgages, and developers’ ability to finance projects amid rising costs.
CONSTRUCTION MARKET, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, URAKIN
According to Serbian Economist, Romania has prepared a strategic study on the creation of a 781.9-km railway corridor from Constanța to the Hungarian border, which will combine modernized sections with speeds of 160–200 km/h and new double-track sections designed for speeds of up to 250 km/h. This is reported by Romanian business publications.
According to the study, the most suitable route is the Constanta–Bucharest–Brasov–Sighisoara–Târgu Mureș–Cluj-Napoca–Zaleu–Oradea–Hungarian border corridor. The project is estimated at €14.93 billion, with an average investment cost of approximately €19 million per kilometer.
The first phase involves the construction of a new double-track line between Bucharest and Cimpina with a design speed of 250 km/h, while the Cimpina–Brasov section is proposed to be upgraded to 200 km/h. The second phase covers the new Brasov–Cluj-Napoca line via Targu Mures, the third—Cluj-Napoca–Oradea via Zalau, and both of these new lines are also designed for 250 km/h. The fourth phase includes upgrading the Bucharest–Fetești section to 200 km/h and constructing a new double-track section between Fetești and Constanța for speeds of 250 km/h.
The document examines the technical, investment, operational, and institutional parameters of the project and recommends phased financing after 2027 through European funds, the state budget, and, potentially, public-private partnership mechanisms.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2476
Kernel, one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, invested $25 million in logistics sustainability and infrastructure in July–December 2025 (the first half of fiscal year 2026), the company said in its financial report.
“Net cash used in investing activities amounted to $145 million during October-December 2025. The outflow of funds mainly consisted of $120 million invested in financial assets as part of the group’s liquidity management strategy, and $25 million in capital expenditures, mainly related to the reconstruction of the transshipment terminal in Chornomorsk, agricultural machinery, backup power equipment, and grain transport cars,” the document says.
According to the report, the group’s total capital investments for the entire reporting half-year amounted to $55 million. In addition to infrastructure projects, $25 million was invested in agribusiness, in particular in upgrading the fleet of precision farming equipment, and about $5 million was spent on other capital expenditures. Thus, the company continues to implement projects to modernize the logistics chain and ensure the autonomy of production capacities.
As reported, the cost of sales in the second quarter increased by 28% compared to the previous quarter. The holding explained this dynamic by a 55% increase in the cost of delivery and handling of cargo, which was a result of higher insurance premiums due to increased Russian attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea port area during the reporting period.
Kernel is the world’s largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil, the largest exporter of grain from Ukraine, an operator of an extensive network of logistics assets, and a leading producer of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine. It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. It is also engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (FY, July–December 2025) decreased by 33% compared to the same period last year, to $119 million. The agricultural holding’s consolidated revenue for the reporting period amounted to $1.924 billion, which is 1% less than in the first half of FY 2025. EBITDA decreased by 14% to $247 million.
In 2025, the European Investment Bank (EIB) Group provided Ukraine with nearly €1.5 billion in new financing for energy, infrastructure, small business support, and European integration projects, according to a statement released by the financial institution on Thursday.
“Today, more than ever, Europe stands with Ukraine. It is a priority for us, and our focus is clear: energy, heating, water, transport, health, and education—the systems that underpin daily life and the country’s resilience,” said EIB President Nadia Calviño.
The release notes that since 2022, Ukraine has already received more than EUR4 billion in financing under European Union (EU) guarantees to strengthen critical infrastructure, support municipal services, and maintain economic activity in the context of war.
According to the bank, in 2025, a EUR300 million transaction was signed with Naftogaz of Ukraine to replenish gas reserves, which was supplemented by a EUR127 million EU grant, as well as EUR 120 million for PJSC Ukrhydroenergo to restore strategic hydroelectric power plants and EUR 200 million through partner banks to help communities restore and modernize centralized heating systems.
Three recovery programs totaling EUR 740 million, including EUR 100 million signed in 2025, are financing the reconstruction of water supply, heat supply, and municipal infrastructure (schools, hospitals, housing) in more than 150 communities, with more than 500 projects underway across the country.
Separately, in 2025, the EIB signed the Ukraine Water Recovery project for EUR 100 million to repair and modernize water supply and sanitation systems damaged by the war.
A loan of EUR 134 million has been allocated to transport and European integration infrastructure for the repair of key bridges and roads and the modernisation of border infrastructure along the “solidarity routes”, as well as EUR 40 million for the deployment of an EU-compatible 112 emergency assistance system in Ukraine.
Regarding support for the private sector, the EIB noted the signing of agreements with seven Ukrainian banks under the EU4Business guarantee program, which is expected to unlock approximately EUR 250 million in financing for approximately 4,600 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The report also mentions investments of EUR 15 million in the Ukraine Phoenix Tech Fund and EUR 50 million in the Amber Dragon Ukraine Infrastructure Fund, as well as a EUR 70 million loan to Ukrgasbank to expand access to long-term financing for SMEs and mid-cap companies.
In addition, together with the European Commission, an EU export credit guarantee instrument worth EUR 300 million is being promoted under the InvestEU program to support European companies exporting to Ukraine.
According to reports, in 2026, the EIB plans to maintain its priority on energy sustainability, expand support for the private sector and SME financing, and strengthen assistance to social and municipal infrastructure and advisory and technical support as part of Ukraine’s preparations for EU accession.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) has allocated EUR46.2 million to support Ukrainian municipalities in restoring vital public infrastructure and providing essential services, backed by an EU guarantee under the European Commission’s investment program for Ukraine.
“This funding is directed where it is most needed: to restore and support essential public services for Ukrainian citizens. This support comes at a critical moment, as Russia intensifies its attacks on civilian infrastructure. The European Commission intends to continue its close cooperation with the European Investment Bank, using the Ukraine Assistance Program to provide vital support to Ukraine and its people,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, Implementation, and Simplification.
In particular, EUR 28 million has been allocated under Ukraine’s Urban Public Transport Projects I and II, which support the renewal of urban transport fleets with modern, energy-efficient vehicles. Thanks to this funding, Kyiv, Lviv, and Mykolaiv will receive new buses; Zaporizhzhia, Ternopil, and Kremenchuk will receive trolleybuses; Dnipro and Kamyanske will receive trams; and Uzhhorod will receive electric buses.
As part of Ukraine’s municipal infrastructure development program, the EIB has allocated EUR 13.3 million to modernize vital local services. The funding supports the reconstruction of public lighting systems in Dnipro and Kamyanske, the modernization of water supply and sewage systems in Lutsk, the improvement of energy efficiency in schools and kindergartens in Sumy, and the improvement of solid waste management in Lviv for the reclamation of the Hrybovychi landfill.
An additional EUR 4.9 million has been allocated under the Ukraine Public Buildings Energy Efficiency Program to support projects in the cities of Rivne, Korets, and Kovel. The sub-projects focus on the energy-efficient modernization of schools, kindergartens, and medical facilities, including insulation, window replacement, and heating system upgrades. This funding is complemented by an E5P investment grant for hospital buildings, such as the Kovel City District Territorial Medical Association, which helps improve energy efficiency, comfort, and quality of service in healthcare facilities.
The European Investment Bank has been operating in Ukraine since 2007. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Bank stepped up its financial support to help strengthen the country’s resilience and rebuild its infrastructure. Since then, the EIB has provided EUR4 billion in financing to Ukraine.
Investment company Dragon Capital is completing the creation of two new investment funds with a total volume of approximately $609 million, according to the company’s founder and CEO Tomas Fiala.
According to him, the first fund, worth $200 million, will focus on small and medium-sized businesses with a turnover of up to EUR50 million.
“Next month, we will have our first closing at just over $100 million, and the second in 2026, where we will reach $200 million. We are already working on a pipeline of several dozen projects, where we are selecting which companies to invest in, and we are mainly buying majority stakes in companies,” Fiala said at the Global Outlook: Strategic Momentum conference organized by the European Business Association (EBA) in Kyiv on Friday.
According to him, the second fund, worth EUR350 million, will focus on infrastructure investments. Its first project will be in the energy sector, where Dragon Capital has already invested its own funds.
By the end of the year, the company plans to launch 65 MW of generating capacity—batteries and gas piston stations—and is also preparing projects for another 200 MW, which are planned to be implemented by the end of next year.
Fiala also said that last month the company invested more than UAH 300 million in the capital of its bank through subordinated debt. In addition, Dragon Capital invested $30 million in the energy sector in 2025 and expects to attract a loan from the EBRD for EUR21 million by the end of the year to increase its investment in this sector to over $50 million.
At the same time, he noted that private investors are still cautious due to the risks of war, while the main participants in the funds are currently international financial organizations and Scandinavian sovereign wealth funds.
“There are those who are watching, but they will mostly be ready to make the investment itself, either if it is very cheap or after the war, after the truce, because the risks are high that something will fly in — we ourselves had about five of our assets destroyed at the beginning of the war, and even recently,” he added.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment groups in Ukraine in the field of investment and financial services, providing a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, direct investments, and asset management for institutional, corporate, and private clients. The company was founded in 2000 in Kyiv. According to founder and CEO Tomas Fiala, the group’s investment portfolio currently includes nearly 50 different companies or real estate projects. Between 2015 and 2021, the company invested approximately $700 million in Ukraine, excluding reinvestments, and plans to invest $100 million in 2025.
