An unprecedented drop in demand for whiskey, cognac, and tequila has led to the formation of large stocks of unsold alcohol among the world’s leading producers, writes the Financial Times.
This is forcing them to mothball production facilities and cut prices to reduce warehouse stocks.
The combined unsold inventory of the world’s five leading alcohol producers — Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, Brown-Forman, and Remy Cointreau — is about $22 billion, the highest in more than a decade, according to FT calculations based on the companies’ financial reports.
In the case of French cognac producer Remy Cointreau, inventories amount to €1.8 billion, which is almost double its annual revenue and close to the company’s market capitalization.
The accumulation of unsold product inventories by spirits producers increases their debt burden and threatens to lead to a price war, the newspaper notes.
“The growth in inventories is unprecedented,” says Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling. According to him, unsold alcohol inventories at companies that disclose this information currently exceed the levels seen during the financial crisis.
Inventories began to accumulate after companies responded to a surge in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic by sharply increasing production.
“In 2021 and 2022, everyone lost their sense of proportion and decided that such demand would continue forever,” Stirling says.
However, the rapid rise in inflation brought the industry back down to earth. The global decline in disposable income over the past few years has weakened demand for spirits, prompting many companies in the sector to report deteriorating financial performance, staff reshuffles, and shareholder outflows.
Investors are debating the extent to which the decline may be due to deeper societal changes. Some believe that the decline in alcohol consumption is primarily due to the rapid spread of weight loss drugs such as Wegovy and Ozempic, as well as a general increase in people’s awareness of health issues.
