Global commodity prices will decline over the next two years amid slowing global economic growth, increasing oil oversupply, and continuing economic policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
The WB’s commodity price index will decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, falling to its lowest level since 2020, according to the organization’s experts.
Despite the decline, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: the WB’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 suggest that the price index will be 23% and 14% higher than in 2019, respectively.
“The global oil surplus increased significantly in 2025 and is expected to exceed the 2020 peak by 65% next year,” the review says. WB experts note that global oil demand growth is slowing, particularly due to increased demand for electric and hybrid vehicles.
According to the organization’s forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $68 per barrel and will fall to a five-year low of $60 per barrel next year. Overall, global energy prices are expected to decline by 12% in 2025 and 10% in 2026.
The World Bank forecasts a 6.1% decline in food prices this year and a 0.3% decline next year.
The review notes that precious metals have risen to record highs this year due to demand for the most reliable assets and continued purchases by global central banks. The price of gold is expected to rise by 42% in 2025 and by another 5% next year, while silver is expected to rise by 34% and 8%, respectively.
“The commodity price index may decline more than expected during the forecast period if global economic growth remains weak amid trade tensions and economic policy uncertainty. An increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries beyond expected volumes could exacerbate the oversupply in the market and lead to a further decline in prices. The sharp growth in electric vehicle sales expected by 2030 could further reduce demand for oil,” the review says.
On the other hand, geopolitical factors could push up oil and precious metal prices, the World Bank warns. Oil prices could also be higher than baseline projections if the market is affected by additional sanctions.
