According to Experts Club, copper prices ended the last trading week on an uptrend: on August 21, three-month contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded at around $14,230 per metric ton, gaining approximately 1.4% for the day.
The market was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and statements by Chinese authorities regarding their intention to increase the role of government spending in stimulating domestic demand. China remains the world’s largest consumer of copper, so expectations of additional government spending traditionally provide support for the industrial metal’s prices.
Volatility remained high throughout the week. On Monday, the price of copper rose to $14,396 per metric ton—a six-month high. The rise was primarily driven by concerns over limited supply of available metal outside the U.S.
However, the situation then stabilized somewhat thanks to copper deliveries to LME warehouses. The premium of spot copper over the three-month contract narrowed from $436 per metric ton on Monday to about $55 by Friday, indicating an easing of supply tightness for immediate delivery.
At the same time, the fundamental risks of a shortage have not completely disappeared. In mid-August, a brief squeeze occurred on the LME: large long positions proved to be comparable to available exchange stocks, leading to a sharp rise in the price of metal for immediate delivery. After that, additional copper from the U.S. and Asia began arriving at exchange warehouses.
Signals from China remain mixed. The Yangshan premium, which reflects Chinese buyers’ demand for imported copper, rose by approximately 7% by the end of the week—to $93 per metric ton. At the same time, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 28% over the week.
In the longer term, the market remains in a pronounced uptrend. Indicative copper prices as of August 21 were approximately 47% higher than a year ago.
The growth in demand is driven by the expansion of power grids, the construction of data centers, and the development of electric vehicles, solar, and wind energy, while it is difficult to rapidly increase copper production due to the long lead times required to bring new deposits online.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center published a short video on the dynamics of global copper production from 1970 to 2024. According to the data presented, Chile remained the largest producer in 2024 with 5.3 million metric tons, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo with 3.3 million metric tons and Peru with 2.6 million metric tons.
Watch the Experts Club video on global copper production – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=dDXmg9cHOYbbGUaX
https://www.experts.news/posts/svitovi-tsiny-na-mid-znovu-zrostayut
Global commodity prices will decline over the next two years amid slowing global economic growth, increasing oil oversupply, and continuing economic policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
The WB’s commodity price index will decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, falling to its lowest level since 2020, according to the organization’s experts.
Despite the decline, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: the WB’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 suggest that the price index will be 23% and 14% higher than in 2019, respectively.
“The global oil surplus increased significantly in 2025 and is expected to exceed the 2020 peak by 65% next year,” the review says. WB experts note that global oil demand growth is slowing, particularly due to increased demand for electric and hybrid vehicles.
According to the organization’s forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $68 per barrel and will fall to a five-year low of $60 per barrel next year. Overall, global energy prices are expected to decline by 12% in 2025 and 10% in 2026.
The World Bank forecasts a 6.1% decline in food prices this year and a 0.3% decline next year.
The review notes that precious metals have risen to record highs this year due to demand for the most reliable assets and continued purchases by global central banks. The price of gold is expected to rise by 42% in 2025 and by another 5% next year, while silver is expected to rise by 34% and 8%, respectively.
“The commodity price index may decline more than expected during the forecast period if global economic growth remains weak amid trade tensions and economic policy uncertainty. An increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries beyond expected volumes could exacerbate the oversupply in the market and lead to a further decline in prices. The sharp growth in electric vehicle sales expected by 2030 could further reduce demand for oil,” the review says.
On the other hand, geopolitical factors could push up oil and precious metal prices, the World Bank warns. Oil prices could also be higher than baseline projections if the market is affected by additional sanctions.
