Global grain production in 2023-2024 may be 1.3% higher than a year earlier and amount to 2.828 billion tons, taking into account the increase in production of corn, rice and wheat, FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) predicts.
According to its review, world grain reserves at the end of the current marketing year (MY) will amount to 894 million tons, which is 2.3% more than at the beginning of the year, indicating a ratio of world grain reserves to consumption of 31%.
The FAO also forecasts that the world grain trade in 2023/24 MY will increase by 1.7% compared to the previous season to 485 mln tonnes, mainly due to the increase in shipments of coarse grains, while the trade in wheat and rice is likely to decline.
In addition, the FAO revised its forecast for global wheat production in 2024 to 796 million tons, down from a month earlier, but still 1% higher than in 2023.
The forecast indicates that wheat production is expected to decline slightly in the European Union and the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, where excessive humidity has led to a reduction in wheat crops. At the same time, localized drought is affecting the acreage in the southern and eastern parts of the European Union.
In the U.S., despite the reduction of plantings due to low prices, the total wheat production in the country will continue to grow in 2024 due to the expected increase in yields due to favorable weather conditions. In Canada, where spring wheat will be planted starting in May, experts expect a reduction in acreage due to lower profitability.
The conditions in Ukraine are assessed as unchanged from the previous month, as the war continues to put heavy pressure on the sector and production prospects.
In Russia, the wheat harvest in 2024 is forecast to be above average, although lower than last year.
In Asia, favorable weather conditions will boost grain production in India and Pakistan. A record wheat harvest is likely in 2024.
At the same time, a significant shortage of precipitation and hot temperatures across North Africa will lead to extremely low production in 2024 after the already poor results of last year.
