Global grain production in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) will increase by 1% compared to the previous season and amount to 2312 million tons due to higher yields of wheat, barley and sorghum, which will compensate for the decline in corn production, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in a report on Thursday.
At the same time, grain consumption will increase, and end-of-season stocks are expected to fall to a ten-year low, including in major exporters.
According to the forecasts, the volume of contracted grain trade in 2024/25 MY will increase by 4% and reach 416 mln tonnes. At the same time, the demand for global consumption will amount to 2320 mln tonnes, and carry-over stocks will be 580 mln tonnes.
In 2024/25, the global soybean production is expected to reach the maximum of 414 mln tonnes. The main demand for soybean products in the upcoming season will come from the world’s leading buyers – the USA, Brazil and Argentina. At the same time, carry-over stocks continue to accumulate. The trade in soybeans in October-September will intensify and increase by 2%, reaching a new high, according to IGC.
Speaking about other oilseeds, IGC drew attention to the expected significant global production of rapeseed/canola against the background of almost unchanged sunflower production, which will be similar to last year’s volume.
According to IGC forecasts, global rice production in 2024/25 MY will reach a record peak and grow by 2%, driven by increased production in major exporting countries, particularly in South Asia. Rice consumption will increase due to population growth, while stocks may increase due to accumulation in India. Trade is likely to decline in January-December 2025 amid rising supplies to Africa and lower demand from Asian importers, particularly Indonesia.
The IGC forecasts a 5% decline in demand for lentils and beans in January-December 2024 to 21.2 mln tons.
The International Grains Council also drew attention to the temporary abolition of tariffs on imports of raw rice, brown and white rice to Brazil until the end of 2024, which aims to mitigate the effects of recent rains and floods in southern Brazil. In addition, IMG members noted recent changes in India’s pulses import policy.
