Global primary nickel production is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2026, reaching 3.715 million tons, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG).
By the end of 2025, it had grown by 8.1% to 3.88 million tons.
These estimates do not account for the possibility of any significant disruptions in operations, the INSG report notes.
Indonesia, the world’s leading nickel producer, introduced additional measures in 2026 to tighten regulation of the mining sector. The approved nickel ore production quota for this year was set at a significantly lower level than in 2025. However, it may be revised upward, depending on the government’s assessment of supply and demand.
Global consumption of primary nickel is expected to increase by 4.2% this year, reaching 3.747 million tons. Last year, it rose by 3.5% to 3.473 million tons.
As a result, the global nickel market will face a shortage in 2026. The deficit will amount to 32,000 tons, whereas in 2025 a surplus of 283,000 tons was recorded, in 2024 – 226,000 tons, and in 2023 – 175,000 tons.
Uncertainty regarding production volumes in Indonesia and the conflict in the Middle East could lead to a revision of forecasts. “The consequences (of the war in Iran – ed.) for metal markets—both in terms of production and final demand—have not yet been adequately assessed,” the INSG report notes.
The INSG is an independent intergovernmental organization founded in 1990 and based in Lisbon, Portugal. The group’s members include nickel-producing and consuming countries: Australia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, India, Italy, Cuba, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Finland, France, Sweden, Japan, and the European Union.
