The board of directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday approved a four-year, SDR11.6 billion ($15.6 billion) extended EFF program as part of a total support package for Ukraine of $115 billion, the Fund said in a statement.
“The Ukraine program (for 2023-2027), supported by the EFF, aims to anchor policies to maintain fiscal, external, price and financial stability and support economic recovery, while improving governance and strengthening institutions to promote long-term growth in the context of post-war recovery and Ukraine’s path to the EU,” the IMF said.
The Fund specified that the decision of the board of directors allows for immediate disbursement of about SDR2 billion (or $2.7 billion).
IMF mission chief Gavin Gray clarified to reporters that the first review of the program is expected in June-July this year, the second by the end of October, possibly in early November, and from 2024 will be quarterly.
According to the release, EFF approval is expected to attract large-scale concessional financing from international donors and Ukraine’s partners to help resolve Ukraine’s balance of payments problem, achieve medium-term external viability and restore debt sustainability on a prospective basis in both baseline and negative scenarios.
The IMF notes that in view of the exceptionally high uncertainty faced by Ukraine, the EFF program envisages a two-stage approach. In the first phase of the program, scheduled for 2023-2024, the focus will be on three goals. These include, among others, strengthening the 2023 budget and supporting revenue mobilization, including by avoiding new measures that could undermine tax revenues.
In addition, it is about sustainable disinflation and exchange rate stability, including by maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and promoting long-term financial stability, including by preparing a more in-depth assessment of the banking sector and further strengthening the independence of the central bank.
“Independent and effective anti-corruption institutions will help reduce corruption risks during martial law and build public and donor confidence in future reconstruction,” the Fund adds.
He also noted that the first phase of the program will protect social spending.
“The second phase of the program will shift the focus to more ambitious structural reforms to strengthen macroeconomic stability, support early post-war recovery, and enhance resilience and higher long-term growth, including in the context of Ukraine’s EU accession goals,” the IMF pointed out.
According to the release, Ukraine is expected to return to its pre-war policy fundamentals, mainly a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, while improving productivity and competitiveness, strengthening institutions and addressing financial and energy sector vulnerabilities.
In addition, fiscal policy will focus on critical structural reforms to guarantee medium-term revenues by implementing a national revenue strategy, along with improving public financial management and introducing public investment management reforms to support postwar recovery.
“The risks to the EFF program are exceptionally high. The success of the program depends on the size, composition and timing of concessional external financing to help close the budget deficit and external financing and restore debt sustainability on a forward-looking basis under baseline and negative scenarios,” said First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath.
IMF Chief of Mission Gavin Gray specified that besides $15.6 billion from the Fund, the support package implies $80 billion from multilateral and bilateral donors, of which $20 billion in grants and $60 billion in concessional loans, as well as another $20 billion in deferred external debt payments.
According to him, the baseline scenario assumes the completion (winding down) of the war in mid-2024, while the negative scenario – by the end of 2025 with an increase in financing needs up to $240 billion.
At the same time, the IMF representative stressed that the program provides additional guarantees from a number of shareholders of the Fund, as preferred creditors, in particular the G7 countries, Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia and Spain.
