International rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts that Ukraine’s current account deficit will increase this year to 14.5% of GDP from 7.2% of GDP in 2024 and 5.3% in 2023, reflecting high gas and steel imports and lower remittances from Ukrainian refugees, as well as high defense imports and exports of goods, which are 38% below pre-war levels.
Inflation is forecast to average 12.3% in 2025, before slowing to 6.5% in 2026 as base effects and monetary policy transmission gain traction.
Fitch also lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2025 from 2.9% to 2.5% due to challenges related to ongoing labor market tensions, damage caused by attacks on gas infrastructure, and the closure of Pokrovskugol due to hostilities.
