Oxford Economics has worsened its expectations for real GDP growth in Ukraine to 3.5% in 2021 from 4% in the August forecast, as well as the forecast for economic growth in 2022 – to 3.4% from 3.5%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021 at 3.5%, according to its November forecast released on Thursday.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.4% compared to the third quarter of 2020 after growing by 5.7% in the second quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such preliminary estimates.
The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2021, taking into account the preliminary data of the State Statistics Service for the third quarter, may turn out to be at the level of 3% against 4.6% set in the state budget for this year, which will mean the absence of payments on value recovery instruments (VRI) in 2023, according to experts interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP in January-September 2021 grew by 2% compared to the same period last year, Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said. J.P. Morgan has sharply downgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 4.5% to 2.3%, while maintaining its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 by 5%, according to the materials of the November EMEA Emerging Markets Research. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3% from 3.4% in the October outlook, the growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 3.5% from 4.2%, according to the outlook materials.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 may be lower than the 3.1% previously predicted by the central bank, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in the October forecast, according to Ukraine’s memorandum with the fund, released on November 24.
The surplus of the foreign trade of Ukraine for January-September 2021 increased by 95.7% compared to January-September 2020 – up to $440 million.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2021 decreased by 37.9% compared to January-September 2020, to $ 1.966 billion from $ 3.166 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine year-over-year in October 2021 decreased to 10.9% from 11% in September, the State Statistics Service reported.
The total public debt of Ukraine in October 2021 grew by 0.66% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.63 billion, while it decreased by 0.28% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.438 trillion.
After a 0.7% decline in September in October 2021, industrial production in Ukraine returned to growth and grew by 1.4% compared to October 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 4% in October 2021 y-o-y, and decreased by 2.2% compared to September of this year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
