Regional elections in Germany on September 20 demonstrated the weakening positions of traditional parties and the further fragmentation of the German electorate: Alternative for Germany (AfD) won in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while in Berlin the Left took first place, according to an analysis by the Experts Club analytical center.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, AfD received 38.2% of the vote, compared with 16.7% in the previous elections in 2021. The Social Democratic Party of Germany received 35.5%, the Left — 6.5%, and the Greens — 5.7%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union received 4.9% and, for the first time in history, failed to cross the five-percent threshold in a state election.
The CDU received 13.3% in the previous election in this state, meaning it lost more than 8 percentage points of support. According to the preliminary distribution of seats, AfD receives 32 seats, the SPD — 29, while the Left and the Greens receive five each. Since the other parliamentary forces rule out a coalition with AfD, the voting result alone does not determine the composition of the future state government.
In Berlin, the results demonstrated a different political configuration. The Left received 25.7% of the vote, compared with 12.2% in the previous election. The CDU came second with 18.8%, AfD received 16.3%, the Greens — 14.3%, and the SPD — 12.1%. The incumbent coalition of the CDU and the Social Democrats lost its parliamentary majority.
Experts Club points out that the September 20 results continued a trend that emerged at the beginning of the month. On September 6, AfD took first place in the election in Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8%, while the CDU received 17.2%. In 2021, the CDU had 37.1% in this state, while AfD had 20.8%.
Thus, according to Experts Club, the results of the September elections should not be reduced exclusively to a movement of the German electorate in a single ideological direction. In two eastern states, AfD received the greatest support, while in Berlin the Left strengthened significantly. This indicates that some voters of traditional parties are shifting toward different alternative political forces depending on the region and the structure of local problems.
According to Infratest dimap, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern AfD managed to mobilize around 66,000 citizens who had previously not voted, as well as attract around 48,000 former SPD voters and approximately 32,000 former CDU supporters.
At the same time, the SPD’s result in this state is largely associated with the personal support enjoyed by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Almost half of Social Democratic voters surveyed after the election said that they would not have supported the party without her. This demonstrates the importance of the personal ratings of state-level politicians even when their parties have weaker positions at the federal level.
A separate problem for the CDU was voters’ perception of the party’s economic competence. Only 13% of respondents in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern named the CDU as the political force best able to solve economic problems. Some 89% of respondents also agreed with the statement that before the federal election the party had promised a great deal but delivered little. These results characterize one specific federal state and cannot automatically be applied to Germany as a whole.
In Berlin, one of the central factors of the campaign was the housing issue. The Left focused attention on rental costs, the shortage of affordable housing and regulation of the activities of large property owners. At the same time, migration and security remained among the important issues for AfD voters.
“These elections show not a linear movement of German society in one ideological direction, but a fragmentation of the electorate. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, protest is concentrated around AfD, while in Berlin the Left became the main recipient of the protest vote and the vote of young urban residents. In other words, the common denominator is not ideology, but the declining ability of traditional parties to keep different groups of voters within the former model of the political center,” said sociologist and co-founder of the research company Active Group Oleksandr Poznii.
According to him, the mobilization of citizens who had not previously participated in elections is particularly illustrative. This may indicate not only a redistribution of the already established electorate, but also an expansion of the base of individual political forces.
Poznii also drew attention to the decline in confidence among some voters in the CDU’s traditional economic competence. In his view, for centrist parties the coming months will be associated primarily with the need to restore the confidence of different groups of voters, rather than only with personnel discussions.
Federal dynamics also demonstrate changes in party support. In the September ARD-DeutschlandTrend conducted by Infratest dimap from August 31 to September 2 among 1,319 voters, AfD was supported by 27% of respondents, the CDU/CSU by 21%, the Greens by 15%, the SPD by 13%, and the Left by 12%.
At the same time, state elections do not directly change the composition of Germany’s federal government or Berlin’s foreign policy. However, they influence the domestic political debate on the economy, budget spending, energy, migration and other issues.
The preliminary results of the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin were released on the night of September 21. The final results are to be approved after the electoral records are checked.
The material was prepared on the basis of a study by the Experts Club analytical center, “AfD won in Mecklenburg, the Left in Berlin: regional elections increased pressure on Germany’s traditional parties,” published on September 21, 2026. Experts Club study on Experts.news
ECONOMY, ELECTIONS, EXPERTS CLUB, GERMANY, POLITICS
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