Ukraine’s real GDP will fall by 31% in 2022 and recover by 8% in 2023 if by the end of 2022 half of the current main negative factors are resolved, and by the end of 2023 they will come to nothing, Concorde Capital investment company predicts.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2022 fell by 37.2% compared to the second quarter of 2021 after falling by 15.1% in the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate.
The negative dynamics of the economy is still softer than the NBU expected, but the experience of 2014-2015 and the prolongation of the war allow us to assume that the situation may worsen in the future, Oleksandr Paraschiy, the head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company, believes.
Export of goods from Ukraine in August increased by 13.9% compared to July to $3.363 billion, while imports decreased by 2.3% to $4.416 billion, the Ministry of Economy reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminary estimates the growth of annual inflation in August at the level of up to 23%, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in August 2022 accelerated to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported on Friday. In August last year, 0.2% deflation was recorded, so year-over-year, in August this year, inflation rose to 23.8% from 22.2% in July and 21.5% in June.
Underlying inflation jumped even more last month, to 2.1% from 1.2% in July, 1.6% in June and 1.4% in May.
The draft state budget for 2023, which the government approved on Tuesday, is based on a forecast of 4.6% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and 37% nominal growth with inflation up to 30% and an average annual exchange rate of UAH 42/$1, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 25% at the September 7 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously supported MPC members, the NBU said on its website.
The total area of residential buildings for which construction permits have been issued (new construction) in January-June 2022 decreased by 1.8 times (44.5%) compared to the same period in 2021, to 2.5 million square meters, according to the State Statistics Service.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
