Russian attacks on critical infrastructure facilities in October accelerated the fall in GDP to 39% from October 2021, which is worse than in September-August – 35%, said First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko at a meeting with representatives of the American media.
The fall in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 could be 33-35%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said at a briefing in Kyiv.
Massive Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which began in October, stopped the trend of slowing down the decline in the Ukrainian economy, its forecast for the year has been worsened from 32% to 35%, the ICU investment group reports in an updated macroeconomic forecast.
Dragon Capital investment company, one of the leaders in the Ukrainian market, worsened its forecast for a decline in real GDP this year by 2 percentage points, to 32% and retained its forecast for a decline in 2023 by another 5%, despite the improvement in the key assumption about the course of the war.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in October fell by 8.2% compared to September, to $3.805 billion, while imports rose by 2.6%, to $4.615 billion, Deputy Economy Minister and Trade Representative Taras Kachka said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2022 increased 2.4 times compared to the same period in 2021, to $5.419 billion from $2.264 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in October 2022 accelerated to 2.5% from 1.9% in September, 1.1% in August and 0.7% in July.
The money supply in Ukraine (M3), after growing by 0.8% in September, added another 2.3% in October, or UAH 52.6 billion, to UAH 2.330 trillion, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said.
Ukraine, which has achieved a deferral of repayment and payment of a significant part of external obligations to private creditors and the Paris Club, may enter into negotiations on the final terms of restructuring for the state debt closer to the end of the war, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Rostyslav Shurma has said.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
