The first stage of the currency restrictions easing roadmap includes minimizing the multiplicity of exchange rates, liberalizing trade operations and facilitating new loans and investments.
The National Bank of Ukraine released the relevant public version of the Strategy to Ease Exchange Restrictions, Transition to a More Flexible Exchange Rate and Return to Inflation Targeting on Friday evening.
According to it, the second stage is liberalization of trade finance, management of currency risks of banks, the possibility of repatriation of interest on “old” debt obligations and investments.
Finally, the third stage includes the possibility of repayment of loans and investments, liberalization of household transactions and transactions in derivatives, the possibility of lending to non-residents and investments abroad.
As announced by the National Bank, the Roadmap and the Strategy have no specific calendar dates.
“Softening of currency restrictions is carried out gradually, taking into account the above priorities and is determined not by timeframes, but by the formation of appropriate macroeconomic prerequisites,” said the NBU.
According to the document, although the Roadmap defines the sequence of easing of currency restrictions, some steps (in particular, within the specified stages) may be implemented earlier or later than initially envisaged. This could happen if the conditions are such that a deviation from the stipulated sequence would be determined to be more beneficial to the economy, the currency market and the financial system.
The National Bank added that the easing of currency restrictions could occur gradually, in particular by changing the limits, calibration of levels, etc.
The regulator noted that the Roadmap reflects the following priorities: easing restrictions on transactions related to the movement of goods and services, then – related to capital flows and, finally, with its own foreign currency in respect of transactions at the expense of purchased foreign currency.
The NBU stressed that it will follow the general approach in which the refusal to fix the exchange rate will precede a large-scale liberalization of capital flows. “For its part, the increase in exchange rate flexibility will be preceded by the relaxation of most currency restrictions on trade transactions and restrictions that distort the functioning of the foreign exchange market because of the multiplicity of exchange rates,” the central bank added.
The National Bank added that during the implementation of the Strategy it will maintain tight monetary conditions by maintaining a sufficiently high level of real interest rates, which will ensure sufficient attractiveness of hryvnia assets and thus minimize the risks to exchange rate stability with the abandonment of the exchange rate fixing regime and the easing of currency restrictions.
According to the strategy, the NBU will base its decisions on the dynamics of the following key parameters: inflation and inflation expectations; the level of international reserves and foreign exchange market stability; interest rates and financial stability parameters.
“The appropriate preconditions and positive result of the conducted analysis have already allowed the NBU to soften a number of currency restrictions in June. At the same time, the prerequisites for the next steps of the Strategy are still forming,” the regulator noted.
