The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) notes the presence of a number of factors on the market that contribute to the improvement of the price situation, and may reduce the inflation forecast for the current year, which was set at 31% in July, said Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk.
Our last forecast for July (inflation) is about 30%, next year it will be about 20%. The risks are down: most likely, it will be revised (inflation forecast) a little lower, but not significantly,” he said at the Forbes conference “Without rose-colored glasses. Business and the state during the war” on Thursday.
Nikolaychuk explained that this was due, in particular, to the improvement in the situation with the supply of vegetables and fruits.
He added that fuel prices fell more than the National Bank expected, which is also related to logistics.
“The situation with the opening of ports also gives more reasons that there will be no large exchange rate fluctuations,” the deputy head of the National Bank said.
He also noted that in the July forecast, the National Bank included the introduction of an additional import duty and a higher excise tax on fuel, but these measures were not implemented, and this is also an additional deterrent effect on prices.
“Next year, the main disinflationary factor is the improvement in the ability of Ukrainian businesses to increase agricultural production, and logistics capabilities will improve,” Nikolaychuk said.
As reported, consumer price growth in Ukraine in August 2022 accelerated to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, and in annual terms, in August this year, inflation rose to 23.8% from 22.2% in July and 21.5% in June.
As reported, in 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while core inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
The NBU predicted an acceleration of inflation this year to 31%, including up to 25.6% in the third quarter.
