The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) may raise its key refinancing rate to at least 18% in September, bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine say. “The refinancing rate in September may grow by 0.5%, while the increase in the rate will indirectly help ease the pressure on the hryvnia. Following the increase in the refinancing rate, bank deposit and interest rates may grow by 0.5%,” Governor of Bank RwS Vladyslav Kravets has said.
The head of the financial department at Ukrgasbank Viktor Pasternak also predicts that the NBU will raise the key rate in September.
“The National Bank of Ukraine’s increase in the refinancing rate may be within one percentage point. Now the hryvnia is seeing its seasonal weakening, which in turn affects inflation, and an increase in the NBU’s refinancing rate helps curb the inflation,” he said.
According to Pasternak, raising the key rate raises the cost of the hryvnia, but it will not directly influence the exchange rate of the hryvnia.
Head of the investor relations department at Credit Dnepr Bank Andriy Prikhodko also forecasts growth of the refinancing rate.
“The deterioration of financing conditions for Ukraine against the background of the acceleration of the devaluation in August creates prerequisites for raising the refinancing rate, so a small increase in the refinancing rate is possible. A tough monetary policy will increase the profitability and attractiveness of hryvnia instruments, which should reduce pressure on the rate (hryvnia) and inflation. The increased key rate will directly affect the yield of government domestic loan bonds and deposit certificates, the impact on rates on bank deposits and loans will be more indirect and with a certain time lag,” he said.
Governor of Piraeus Bank Serhiy Naumov also forecasts the refinancing rate may increase slightly in September.
“Despite the fact that inflation slowed this summer, inflation expectations are still high, we are entering the autumn period when the exchange rate is growing seasonally and the likelihood of gas price hikes for households is high, so I believe that the NBU can once again consider an increase in the rate. But I don’t think it will be drastic. If the key rate grows, I think rates on both bank deposits and loans will go up, but not immediately and not crucially,” the banker said.
