In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 61.5 million tons from 57.9 million tons in its July report, but lowered its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
“According to the NBU’s assumptions, in 2026-2027, grain and legume harvests will grow thanks to further increases in agricultural productivity and an increase in corn and other grain crops in regions less affected by climate change,” the document says.
However, according to the National Bank, the harvest of oilseeds, which are mainly grown in the southern regions, will be lower due to the negative impact of climate change, exacerbated by the long-term consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant for the region’s irrigation systems.
“The security situation in the frontline regions of the south will continue to have an impact, worsening conditions for the 2026 sowing campaign and slowing down the pace of land demining,” the report also says.
As a result, the National Bank has improved its grain harvest forecast for 2026 from 59.6 million tons to 62.9 million tons, and for 2027 from 60.4 million tons to 63.5 million tons.
At the same time, oilseed harvest expectations have been reduced to 21.4 million tons next year from 22.0 million tons, and to 22.2 million tons in 2027 from 22.8 million tons.
“However, the NBU expects the livestock sector to continue to make a negative contribution to agricultural value added due to a further reduction in livestock numbers (with the exception of poultry),” the report also notes.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of early crops (wheat, barley, rapeseed, legumes) as of October 1, 2025, reached 32.6 million tons, while the 2024 harvest yielded 31.9 million tons (+2.1%). The current growth is primarily due to higher yields of wheat (+3.9%) and legumes (+35%), while the barley harvest has practically reached last year’s level (-0.6%), and the rapeseed harvest is 10.7% lower than last year.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center made a video analysis of wheat production by the world’s leading countries for the period 1991-2024.
