The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week increased the sale of dollars on the interbank market by $124.5m, or 21.6%, to $700.9m, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. According to the NBU, for the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of purchase and sale of foreign currency by legal entities increased to $71.3 million from $58.2 million for the same period a week earlier and totaled $285.3 million.
On the market of foreign exchange transactions of households, the negative balance, on the contrary, decreased to $33.4 million on Saturday-Thursday from $43.4 million the week before last, and all days the sale of non-cash currency exceeded its purchase.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at UAH 41.9782/$1, weakened to UAH 42.0641/$1 in three days, but ended the week at UAH 42.0423/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week changed over the trajectory of the official one, and in general, the dollar rose by about 12 kopecks during the week: buying – to UAH 41.86/$1, and selling – to UAH 42.23/$1.
Analysts of the multi-service FinTech platform KYT Group, which is a major player in the cash FX market, noted a gradual depreciation of the hryvnia, but under full control of the National Bank, which is helped by record international reserves and last week’s receipt of another EUR5.9 bln from the EU.
According to their forecast, short-term (1-2 weeks) the hryvnia will be in the base range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1 with likely gravitating towards the upper boundary of the forecast.
“Medium-term (2-3 months) – 42.0-42.9 UAH/$1. Now there is every reason to strengthen the dollar in the international market, where positive sentiment reigns because of the understandable easing policy from the Fed. But for Ukraine the main role will be played by such factors as the situation in the energy sector, further possible advances of the RF Armed Forces troops on the territory of the country and stability of financial aid receipts from partners”, – KYT Group believes.
Long-term (6+ months), the company maintains the forecast scenario of hryvnia devaluation. Subject to timely and rhythmic receipt of international aid, they cite as a benchmark range of 43.40-44.60 UAH/$1 until mid-2026, taking into account the current context of the military and political situation in Ukraine.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1120665.html
