The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its migration forecasts for Ukrainians: while in April this year it expected an outflow of 200,000 this year and an inflow of 0.4 million next year, it now estimates the outflow this year at 400,000 and the inflow next year at 300,000.
“This assumption has worsened compared to the April Inflation Report due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, which is accompanied by prolonged power outages and increases the risks for the heating season,” the regulator said in its July Inflation Report, published on Friday.
The NBU adds that in addition to household difficulties, frequent outages have a negative impact on production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor, further stimulating migration.
In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.7 million this year and 7 million next year.
The NBU refers to UN data, according to which the number of migrants abroad increased by 240 thousand to 6.6 million in the first half of this year.
In a new report, the National Bank postponed the expected start date for Ukrainians to return home from 2025 to 2026. According to its forecasts, 200,000 Ukrainians may return home in the first quarter of 2026 and the same number by the end of the year, although the April inflation report estimated the net inflow in 2026 at 800,000.
The central bank explains the change in its forecasts both by the deterioration of living conditions in Ukraine, in particular due to power outages, and by the factor of greater adaptation of Ukrainians abroad due to the long duration of their stay.
Thus, the NBU now estimates the number of compatriots-migrants abroad at the end of 2026 at 6.6 million, up from 5.3 million in the April inflation report.
It is noted that the number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant, as, according to surveys, a significant number of them have nowhere to return to due to significant damage to housing infrastructure.
“Currently, the negative risks of an even greater outflow of migrants abroad, and of a smaller and later return prevail. Important factors in this may be legislative decisions by the governments of recipient countries to deepen the integration of Ukrainian migrants in host countries, and their children in the educational systems of host countries, and, accordingly, an increase in the propensity to unite families abroad,” the regulator notes.
The NBU believes that this will have a negative impact on labor supply and consumer demand and will hinder economic growth.
“Significant changes in the structure of the economy and increased demand for skilled labor will lead to further imbalances in the labor market, which will stimulate wage growth that will be higher than productivity growth in certain sectors,” the regulator predicts.
On the other hand, the rapid recovery of housing, infrastructure, and job growth due to the economic recovery may lead to a more active return of migrants, the central bank points out.
