Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $228.1 million, or 33.6%, to $906.6 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, this is the largest volume of currency sales since mid-February 2025, when the regulator sold a record $1191.30 million since the beginning of the year.
The data that the NBU has published during this time show that last week the balance of foreign exchange interventions was negative almost every day, except for Monday, when it amounted to $1.38 million. Already on Tuesday, the negative balance was recorded at $11.5 million, on Wednesday – $14.5 million, and on Thursday – $6.8 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from 41.7842 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.7514 UAH/$1 at the end.
On the cash market, the hryvnia strengthened by 5 kopecks over the week: buying to about 41.61 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.70 UAH/$1.
“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate stability with a slight correction in a narrow range,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market .
In their opinion, in the short term (two to four weeks), the corridor of UAH 41.40-42.10/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts predict that in the medium term (two to four months), the hryvnia exchange rate may gradually depreciate to 42.20-42.80 UAH/$ in the event of increased domestic budget spending, seasonal demand for the currency, or increased devaluation expectations among households and businesses.
In the long term (more than six months), experts do not expect a reduction in external financial support, so the most likely scenario is a gradual controlled devaluation of the hryvnia to 43.00-44.50 UAH/$. At the same time, the NBU’s exchange rate policy and the government’s signals on the macroeconomic course for 2026 may remain important deterrents.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1089251.html
