Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $234.8 million, or 27.9%, to $607.8 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the data released by the National Bank, last week the negative balance of buying and selling of foreign currency by banks’ legal entities increased from $43.2 million on Monday to $103.1 million on Thursday, which is almost half as much as last week.
A similar situation was observed in the market of foreign exchange transactions of households: while on Saturday-Monday, sales of foreign currency exceeded purchases by $7.6 million, on Thursday it was $10.5 million, while last Thursday this figure reached $27.5 million.
While a week earlier, for the first time in a long time, a negative balance was recorded in the segment of non-cash transactions of households, last week households again sold more non-cash currency than bought it – by $2-5 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from 41.3895 UAH/$1 to 41.3401 UAH/$1 last week.
The same dynamics was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia strengthened by 3-5 kopecks last week: buying to about 41.37 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The Ukrainian currency market in terms of the dollar is in a calm phase – international factors do not provide drivers for drastic changes, while dosed interventions and liberalization of the NBU maintain low volatility and market controllability,” experts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market, said.
According to their estimates, domestic demand is stable without any hype or accumulative drivers, importers act in a planned manner without provoking abnormal outbursts, and there are fewer or no “insurance” margins of market operators in the hryvnia-dollar quotes.
For the next 1-3 weeks, KYT Group expects the exchange rate to remain in the basic range of UAH 41.30-41.85/$1: a break below UAH 41.20/$1 is unlikely without a strong external catalyst, but short impulses are possible based on data from the US or news about external financing for Ukraine.
In the medium term, for 2-3 months, the company expects the exchange rate to be 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1 and adds that the expectation of the September Fed decision with a likely but far from guaranteed rate cut shifts expectations for quotes to the lower end of the corridor. At the same time, autumn budget payments and energy imports may push quotes up, but the start of the export season and its success is a strong stabilizing factor.
“If the scenario of increased uncertainty (security, economic indicators, political shifts) or deterioration of external revenues is realized, short exits to 42.30-42.40/$1 are likely,” KYT Group experts believe.
