Net outflow from Ukraine in 2026 will remain at the 2025 level of 0.2 million people. This worsened migration forecast was included by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its updated macro forecast, which was also worsened due to expectations of a longer war.
“Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have been worsened. It is expected that in 2026, the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar pace to the current one (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people,” the National Bank’s inflation report published on its website says.
“Net returns will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added.
At the same time, it left its assumptions for 2025 unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people is expected.
The NBU report notes that the risks of increased combat activity and shelling of rear regions, occupation of new territories, or a significantly longer war remain significant. If these risks materialize, migration outflows will intensify.
“The active policy of recipient countries’ governments to retain Ukrainians, especially those involved in the labor market, is also a negative risk for the migration forecast,” the National Bank adds.
According to the updated forecast, 5.8 million Ukrainians will remain abroad this year, 6 million next year, and 5.9 million in 2027.
At the same time, an alternative forecast, which assumes a faster end to the war, predicts that next year the number of Ukrainians abroad will fall to 5.6 million, and in 2027 to 5.1 million, which is in line with the April forecast.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its macroeconomic forecast in July: in 2025, economic growth will be 2.1% instead of the previously expected 3.1%, and in 2026-2027, it will be 2-3% instead of 3.7-3.9%.
