The rise in global oil prices has already led to a noticeable increase in aviation kerosene prices, which is putting additional pressure on airlines and may affect ticket prices during the summer tourist season. This conclusion is contained in an analytical commentary by Experts Club. Amid the escalation in the Middle East, Brent on March 18 rose to $108.56 per barrel, and a day earlier exceeded the $100 per barrel mark.
According to IATA, the global average price of aviation fuel for the latest reporting week increased by 11.2% compared to the previous week and reached $175 per barrel. At the same time, in its December forecast IATA assumed the average price of jet fuel in 2026 would be $88 per barrel with Brent at $62, meaning the current market is already more than twice the industry’s baseline scenario.
An additional indicator comes from the U.S. market: according to AP, the average jet fuel price in the United States rose to $3.99 per gallon compared with about $2.50 two weeks earlier. Reuters also notes that jet fuel prices in the U.S. have risen by more than 50%, while in Europe some airlines have already begun adjusting schedules and fares due to higher fuel costs.
As Experts Club analysts note, the market logic is obvious: aviation fuel remains one of the largest cost items for air carriers alongside personnel, so the sharp rise in kerosene prices will almost inevitably be passed through into airfares, especially on long-haul and resort routes. IATA directly states that jet fuel is one of the largest airline cost items, while AP estimates fuel accounts for around 20-25% of carriers’ expenses.
“We are seeing not just an increase in oil prices as a traded asset, but a direct transmission of the price shock into aviation fuel. If oil remains above $100 per barrel and kerosene stays at extremely high levels, airlines will be forced either to raise fares or to cut part of their flight programs. For the tourism market, this means a more expensive and less predictable summer season,” said Experts Club founder and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin.
According to him, mass tourist routes are especially vulnerable, where carriers operate with thin margins and high price sensitivity of demand. “Even if ticket price growth is uneven, the very factor of expensive fuel changes market behavior: tour operators form packages more cautiously, airlines revise their route networks, and tourists postpone purchases or choose shorter trips. In such a situation, the summer of 2026 may become a season of high volatility – both in prices and in route load factors,” Urakin noted.
Practical signals of this process have already appeared. Reuters reported that SAS decided to cancel about 1,000 flights in April amid the sharp rise in fuel prices, while AP writes that a number of international airlines have already introduced fuel surcharges or raised base fares. This means that if the current market environment persists, the rise in airfare prices may become one of the key pressure factors on the global tourism market in the upcoming summer season.
