Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP fall in 2020 to 4.6% compared to 4.9% of GDP in the November forecast, according to the December forecast.
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 may amount to 5.5% of GDP with a further recovery of growth by 3.5-4% in the next two years, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) expects the economy to fall by 5.1% of GDP in 2020, according to the KSE economic activity review for the fourth quarter of this year.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminarily estimates the loss of Ukraine’s GDP from the enhanced quarantine in January 2021 at 0.2%, Deputy NBU Governor Dmytro Sologub has said.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in July-September 2020 amounted to 3.5% compared to the same period in 2019, the State Statistics Service confirmed its preliminary assessment, published in mid-November.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2020 decreased by 71.4% compared to January-October 2019, to $3.354 billion from $8.496 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2020 accelerated to 1.3% from 1% in October and 0.5% in September after falling by 0.2% in August and 0.6% in July, reported the State Statistics Service on Wednesday.
The 2021 national budget provides for a deficit of 5.5% of GDP, or UAH 246.6 billion, according to the text of the law released on the website of the Finance Ministry on Monday.
Most members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expect the key policy rate to rise to 6.5-7.5% in 2021 due to the predicted rise in inflationary pressures, the regulator’s website said on Monday.
The total public debt of Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 1.16% in U.S. dollars, to $ 84.24 billion and by 1.27% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.398 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The prices of industrial producers in Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 2%, while in October by 3.8%, in September by 1.7%, in August by 2.3%, in July by 0.4%, and in June and May their decline was recorded by 2% and 0.6%, respectively, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2020 compared to November 2019 decreased by 0.3%, while in October by 5%, in September by 4.4%, in August 5.3%, in July 4.2%, June 5.6%, May 12.2% and April 16.2%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of December 11, Ukraine has exported 22.89 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 3.8 million tonnes less than year-over-year.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-November 2020 reduced transportation of goods by 11.6% compared to the same period in 2019, to 546.6 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukrainian transport companies carried 2.345 billion passengers in January-November 2020, which is 39.9% less than in the same period in 2019, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 12.1% compared to the same month in 2019 in comparable prices, while in the previous month the growth was 15.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine in 2020 reduced the export of electricity by 26.5% (by 1.715 billion kWh) compared to 2019, to 4.754 billion kWh, according to the data of NPC Ukrenergo.
According to the calculations of Interfax-Ukraine, the supply of electricity from the Burshtyn TPP energy island to Hungary, Slovakia and Romania decreased 32.1% (by 1.428 billion kWh), to 3.02 billion kWh.
Electricity supplies to Poland grew by 7.8% (by 107.3 million kWh), to 1.484 billion kWh. Electricity supplies to Moldova decreased 74.1% (by 476.9 million kWh), to 167.1 million kWh. Export to Belarus amounted to 82.8 million kWh.
Ukrainian electricity was not exported to Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine in 2020 also cut electricity imports by 15.3% (by 413.7 million kWh) compared to 2019, to 2.285 billion kWh, including 1.474 billion kWh supplied from Slovakia, 516 million kWh from Hungary, 152.3 million kWh from Belarus, 89.4 million kWh from Romania, and 53.4 million kWh from the Russian Federation.
In addition, within technological flows associated with the parallel operation of the IPS of Ukraine with the power systems of neighboring countries and power supply of dead-end areas, 58.9 million kWh of electricity was imported from the Russian Federation last year, and 0.9 million kWh from Belarus. Emergency supplies from Hungary amounted to 1.1 million kWh.
Forest Innovation and Analytical Center has begun the creation of the Forestry Startup Fund on behalf of Head of the State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine Vasyl Kuzovych.
“The main task of the Fund will be the development of a special platform (project exchange) designed to streamline contacts between startup developers and potential investors interested in creating modern high technologies in the timber industry,” the press service of the State Forest Resources Agency said on Saturday.
According to the press service, in the future, the Forestry Startup Fund may become the founder of the first industrial park in the forestry industry, arranged according to the classic three-module scheme, which has proven itself in Silicon Valley and other global centers of innovation.
British purchasing agency Crown Agents will purchase COVID-19 vaccines for Ukraine, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov said during a press briefing in Kyiv on Friday.
“At an extraordinary meeting of the government, it was decided that the procurement of vaccines against COVID-19 will be carried out by the international organization Crown Agents. It will have the authority to conclude contracts in accordance with the preliminary negotiations held by the Ministry of Health, the leadership of the state, as well as logistics support of goods,” he said.
Stepanov noted that the company is purchasing vaccines against COVID-19 for different countries, in particular for the UK.
“We have changed the purchasing organization, because at the end of 2020, the work of the State Enterprise Medical Procurement of Ukraine was extremely ineffective. I consider the organization of the process by the leadership of this company ineffective,” the minister added.
JSC Ukrzaliznytsia in 2020 transported more than 40 million tonnes of cargo to the countries of the European Union, 10 million tonnes of which were transportation to Poland and back.
As the Ukrzaliznytsia’s press service of said on Friday, exports to the EU countries, in particular, amounted to almost 29 million tonnes, imports almost 4 million tonnes, and transit about 7.5 million tonnes.
Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Italy and Romania are included in the top 5 EU countries in terms of cargo transportation by Ukrzaliznytsia.
Ukrzaliznytsia also noted an increase in transportations to and from Romania by 21.2%, to almost 4 million tonnes in 2020.
As reported, Ukrzaliznytsia transported in December 2020, according to recent data, 26.65 million tonnes of cargo in all routes, which is 7.4% more than the same period in 2019.
Inhulets mining and processing plant (InGOK, Kryvy Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region), part of Metinvest Group, in 2020 increased production of iron ore concentrate, according to recent data, by 7.7% compared to the previous year, to 11.9 million tonnes.
The enterprise told Interfax-Ukraine that in December it produced 1.019 million tonnes of concentrate with a 66.13% iron content, while extracted 2.608 million tonnes of crude ore.
As reported, InGOK in 2019 increased production of iron ore concentrate by 1.2% compared to the previous year, to 11.052 million tonnes.
The enterprise specializes in extraction and processing of ferruginous quartzites of Inhulets deposit, located in the southern part of the Kryvy Rih iron ore basin. It produces two types of iron ore concentrate with an iron content of 64.8% and 67%.
The production capacity is 14 million tonnes of iron ore concentrate per year.
InGOK is part of Metinvest Group, the main shareholders of which are PrJSC System Capital Management (SCM, Donetsk, 71.24%) and the Smart-Holding (23.76%).
Metinvest Group’s management company is Metinvest Holding LLC.
