Quotes of interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH for $1, in 01.04.2023-30.04.2023)
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Ukraine in May exported about 41,000 MWh, while importing half as much – about 20,000 MWh, according to published data on the website of the continental European network of system operators ENTSO-E.
Electric power was exported to Moldova, amounting to 23.3 thousand MWh and to Poland – 17.6 thousand MWh.
In the last week of May, after the announced shutdown of some units, there were no exports except for a few hours during certain days, and the transmission system operator, NEC Ukrenergo, did not auction any capacity for exports at the end of May, except for a few hours on certain days.
Imports came from Slovakia – about 18,000 MWh and from Moldova – about 2,000 MWh (the last few days of May data for Moldova are not displayed on the ENTSO-E website – ER). At the same time, it has increased considerably since May 20, almost six times compared to the first half of the month.
At the same time, exports decreased three times compared with the first two weeks of May.
At the same time in May, due to the growing demand for exports and restrictions on their implementation, traders for the first time began to pay for exports to Moldova and Poland (along the line KAES-Zheshuv) – UAH 1.8 million and UAH 0.5 million respectively. Also 1.3 million UAH were paid for the section for imports from Slovakia on certain days.
As reported, exports of electricity, which was resumed in April after it was stopped in October, amounted to 89.7 thousand MWh for the month. Most of the electricity was exported to Moldova – over 40 thou MWh, another 30.4 thou MWh went to Poland and 19.2 thou MWh to Slovakia.
However, exports to Slovakia lasted only four days, having been suspended since April 21 at the initiative of the Slovak transmission system operator.
The section to Slovakia for 4 days brought to Ukrenergo about 17 mln hryvnia. The NERC, Ukrenergo and the Ministry of Energy are resolving the issue of resuming exports to Slovakia.
Electricity imports in April amounted to about 4 thou MWh – 3.8 thou MWh from Slovakia (a third less than in March) and 0.1 MWh from Moldova (in March there were 1,541 MWh).
Ukrainian exporters have already used almost 100% of the sugar export potential that was built into the forecast balance for the 2022/2023 marketing year, so to avoid a shortage of this product in the summer and autumn period, the government has limited its exports for the period from June 5 to September 15, the press service of the Economy Ministry said.
“Consumption of sugar grows in Ukraine in summer, so to avoid a shortage and price rises on the domestic market during this period, the government temporarily stops export quotas for this product,” the ministry said on its website on Thursday.
According to the State Customs Service, at the end of last week Ukraine exported more than 350 thousand tons of sugar and sugar products, which amounts to 95% of the forecast exports for 2022/2023 marketing year (MY).
As noted in the Ministry of Economy, the supply of the domestic market in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account the production of 1285 thousand tons of sugar and transitional residues, according to expert estimates, is 1776 thousand tons. To meet the needs of the domestic market in 2022/2023 yr Ukraine needs 1010 thousand tons. Export of sugar during the same period is expected at the level of 370 thousand tons.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers at its meeting on May 30 adopted a decree banning the export of sugar for the period from June 5 to September 15 this year.
The National Bank of Ukraine has applied influence measures to ALC IC “Varto” and PrJSC “IC “Into” in the form of the obligation to take measures to eliminate violations and the causes that contributed to their commission.
“Measures of influence are applied due to failure to comply with the requirements of paragraphs 1 and 11 of the NBU’s board resolution “On peculiarities of registration procedures and licensing of participants of the non-banking financial services market during martial law …”, the regulator said in a statement on its website.
According to the document, it refers to written assurances of companies to the National Bank on the compliance of direct and ultimate owners of material participation to the requirements of the regulator on the financial / property status, the documents to assess such a position and subsequent responses to the NBU request.
It is clarified that the Committee on the Supervision and Regulation of Non-Banking Financial Services Markets adopted such decisions on May 29, 2023.
According to the NBU, the net earned premiums of IC “Varto” in the first quarter of 2023 amounted to 4,36 mln UAH, insurance payments – 2,57 mln UAH, net profit – near zero. Assets of the company at the beginning of April equaled UAH 39,03 mln, shareholders’ equity – UAH 34,16 mln.
The larger IC “Into” has net earned insurance premiums in the first quarter of 2023 were equal to UAH 17,67 mln, insurance payments – UAH 10,46 mln, net profit – UAH 0,28 mln. At the beginning of April assets of the company amounted to UAH 146,35 mln, shareholders’ equity – UAH 110,63 mln.
The Kievavtodor utility corporation will limit traffic on the North Bridge in Kiev from June 3 to 5 due to the ongoing repair of the rightmost lanes, the Kiev City State Administration said.
“From 08:00 on June 3 to 08:00 on June 5 on the North Bridge will partially limit traffic, warns CC “Kyivavtodor”. On the Northern bridge will carry out the current repair of the rightmost lanes”, – said in the message of the KSCA in Telegram-channel on Friday.
The work will be carried out on weekends to have less impact on traffic.
“CC “Kievavtodor” apologizes for the temporary inconvenience,” – noted in the message.
The main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine testify to the increasing role of international structures in keeping Ukrainian economy in operating mode.
The International Monetary Fund, which earlier estimated the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% of its decline to 1% of growth, is inclined to the fact that GDP growth in 2023 may be at the upper limit of this range. At that, as the head of the National Bank Andrey Pyshnyy said, the negative scenario of Ukraine’s GDP fall by 10% this year and 2% next year, contained in the EFF program, confirms the IMF readiness to support Ukraine even in the worst case scenario.
The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s GDP may grow by 0.5% in 2023 and by 3.5% in 2024 after falling by nearly 30% (29.2%, to be exact) last year. At the same time, the World Bank in January 2023 predicted rapid growth of Ukrainian GDP: by 3.3% this year and by 4.1% next year.
The International Monetary Fund in its April review of the global economy (World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery) once again abandoned its forecast for Ukraine beyond 2023, although in the EFF program approved at the end of March it gave a forecast until 2027.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product, after growing by 3.4% in 2021, fell by 29.1% in 2022 due to full-scale Russian military aggression, such official data was released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its forecast for the growth of gross domestic product of the country in 2023 to 2% from 0.3% in the January forecast, which is largely due to the reduction of security risks, the restoration of the energy system, as well as soft fiscal policy.
International rating agency S&P has affirmed long-term issuer credit ratings of Ukrainian capital Kiev in foreign and national currency “CCC+” with a stable outlook, indicating that the city has demonstrated good financial performance in 2022, despite the difficult environment.
The founder of the Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” drew attention to a significant reduction in the foreign trade balance of Ukraine. “The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods at the beginning of 2023 increased by more than 3 times and amounted to almost $4 billion, we will watch the next months, but if this trend persists until the fall of 2023, the country may face a strong imbalance of the main macroeconomic indicators,” – said Maksim Urakin.
According to the authorities, in January-February 2023, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit with goods increased 3.4 times compared to the same period of 2022 – up to $3.713 billion from $1.083 billion.
At the same time, the state budget deficit of Ukraine in March 2023 decreased to 59.2 billion UAH from 88.8 billion UAH in February, including the general fund deficit to 72.6 billion UAH from 93.2 billion UAH.
State budget expenditures for support of the AFU in the form of purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, and personal protective equipment, amounted to UAH 34.4 billion in March (15.3% of total expenditures), compared with UAH 31.9 billion in February (14%), and UAH 28.7 billion in January (15.6%).
Ukraine’s public debt and publicly guaranteed debt in 2022 increased by $13.4 billion to 78.5% of GDP by the end of 2022 from 48.9% in 2021.
According to the National Bank, the deficit of Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payments in February was $722 million after a surplus of $1.208 billion in January, but the deficit is 2.1 times smaller than in February 2022, when it was $1.52 billion.
International reserves of Ukraine as of April 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $31.878 billion, which is 10% or $3 billion more than in February 2023, it is connected with significant receipts from international partners of Ukraine.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine accelerated to 1.5% in March 2023 from 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January. At the same time, inflation in April 2022 was 3.1%, so in annual terms in April 2023 it decreased to 17.9% from 21.3% in March, 24.9% in February and 26.6% in December. Core inflation in the past month also fell to 0.5% from 1.5% in March, returning to the level of February.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) to April 10 exported 38.82 million tons of grains, including 22.86 million tons of corn (58.9% of total supplies), 13.34 million tons of wheat (34.4%) and 2.3 million tons of barley (5.9%). Further exports of oilseeds and grains largely depend on the extension of the so-called “grain deal”.
