The price of gasoline in August this year may reach the mark of 60.86 UAH/liter, diesel fuel – 55.61 UAH/liter, gas – 26.63 UAH/liter, according to the data of consulting group A-95, posted by its director Sergei Kuyun in his Facebook on Friday.
He commented that the strongest impetus for the movement of prices at gas stations is created by the “delayed integration of increased taxes and the growth of world quotations”.
“If you put everything in a pile, the prospect of reaching 60 UAH/liter of gasoline and 55 UAH/liter of DT is absolutely real. Yes, I think up to 3 UAH/l will be amortized at the expense of retail markup, but this is such a sedative,” Kuyun wrote.
According to his calculations, the rise in the price of gasoline in July by less than 4 UAH / l, diesel fuel – a little more than 4 UAH / l and autogas by 1.5 UAH / l, despite the forecasts, providing at least a doubling of prices, due to the sale by market players of fuel stocks formed in May and June – before the abolition of preferential taxes.
“The key contribution to July stability was made by well-prepared OKKO, WOG and Ukrnafta, thanks to which prices have not yet crossed the 50 UAH/liter mark,” the expert noted.
At the same time, he pointed out that July fuel is increasingly replacing preliminary volumes with low production costs, and this process will be completed by mid-August.
He called its appreciation on the world market another factor in the projected increase in the price of motor fuel.
“Gasoline and diesel fuel added $130-140/t, which is an average of 5 UAH/liter (of course, with the new 20% VAT). Gas soared by $70/t (1.7 UAH/liter). We are in the season of maximum consumption worldwide, so hope for a significant cooling of prices, in my opinion, is not worth it,” – said the director of A-95.
In addition, he drew attention to the shelling of Ukrainian ports by the Russians, as a result of which tanker owners, according to him, have lost the desire to carry fuel to Romanian ports and Moldovan Giurgiulesti.
“Those who agree have raised freight rates by almost 50% (and some, they say, by 100%) and demand insurance for the lives of the entire crew, including families. One can understand: it’s like that rocket to fly across the Danube… There have also been cases of direct threats to civilian ships by Russian warships. The problems in the south will also keep the prices up,” the expert described the situation.
In his opinion, in order to overcome these problems, which he called not new for the Ukrainian market, it is necessary to increase contracts on land, in the northern and western directions.
In addition, he spoke in favor of consolidation of traders who together could conclude long-term contracts for large tanker shipments, in particular with American companies.
“This would guarantee a resource and a good price on a large volume. In addition, this product would guarantee to replace various toxic resources of diesel fuel from Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, which frankly smell of “narrow” perfume,” – summarized Kuyun.
As reported, in mid-March 2022, the Rada adopted a law on additional tax incentives to support business during the war, aimed, among other things, to keep fuel prices down. According to it, temporarily, for the period of martial law, zero excise tax and VAT of 7% instead of 20% were set on fuel.
On September 21, 2022, the Rada passed Bill No. 7668-d on the return of excise taxes on motor fuel, setting them at EUR100 for gasoline and diesel (hereinafter – per 1,000 liters), EUR52 for liquefied gas, butane and isobutane, and EUR100 for alternative motor fuel and biodiesel. VAT for all types of fuel remained at 7%.
However, according to this document, from July 1, 2023 the level of fuel taxes returned to the pre-war level: VAT – to 20%, excise duty on gasoline – to EUR213, on diesel – to EUR140 per 1,000 liters.
