Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says that in the medium term, there is every opportunity to double Ukraine’s agricultural exports and provide food for up to 600 million people worldwide.
“The aggressor is trying to prevent our agricultural exports in every possible way and thus condemn dozens of vulnerable countries to starvation. Fortunately, together with you, our friends and partners, we are successfully counteracting this strategy,” Shmyhal said at the 3rd International Food Security Conference GRAIN FROM UKRAINE on Saturday.
The Prime Minister said that Ukraine has already harvested its third crop during the full-scale war, which amounts to more than 53 million tons of grains and legumes.
He noted that the 2024 harvest is still ongoing and will be sufficient for both domestic needs and exports.
Shmyhal also said that thanks to the Black Sea Logistics Corridor and other routes, Ukraine has restored its export capacity, in particular, in 10 months of 2024, the country exported more goods than in the whole of 2023, and food (sunflower oil, corn, wheat) is the main export structure.
“We supply products to more than 100 countries for more than 400 million people. These are mainly countries in Southeast Asia and Africa. In the medium term, there is every opportunity to double the volume of agricultural exports and provide food to 600 million people around the world,” the Prime Minister emphasized.
In 2023, Ukraine exported 67.5 million tons of agricultural products, which is 15% more than last year, while export earnings decreased by 8% to $21.9 billion compared to 2022, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
The business association noted that 2023 was one of the most difficult years in the history of Ukraine’s independence, including in terms of exports.
Among the main obstacles to agricultural exports, the UCAB called the Russian side’s inhibition of the grain corridor, which had been operating since July 2022, and then its termination and blocking of any sea exports. The destruction of the infrastructure of seaports and river ports on the Danube by Russian troops had a significant impact on the export of agricultural products. The agricultural sector was also affected by the ban on exports and transit by neighboring European countries, as well as the blocking of checkpoints on the western border.
The UCAB noted that despite these restrictions, exports of agricultural products increased in physical terms in 2023. Export revenue decreased due to falling prices for almost all types of agricultural products compared to 2022, which was the year of the highest food prices in the world.
The business association warned that the current level of exports is not enough to export the 2023 harvest. If the export volume remains as of the end of 2023, there are risks that Ukraine will have significant carry-over stocks (primarily of grain crops) by the beginning of the next harvest, the UCAB explained.
“Such a situation in the context of low prices on the Ukrainian market for grains and oilseeds, expensive export logistics will further complicate the activities of Ukrainian farmers due to lack of working capital. That is why it is necessary to increase export volumes through all possible channels in order to export the entire harvest before the start of the new season,” summarized UCAB analyst Svitlana Lytvyn.
In August 2023, Ukraine increased exports of agricultural products by 16% compared to the previous month – up to 4.3 million tons, and this is without taking into account the growing queues of vehicles at the borders, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
“Such export volumes in August 2023 are an incredible result. Despite all the obstacles (Russia’s shelling of the Danube river infrastructure, falling water levels in the Danube, a ban on the export of a number of key Ukrainian exports to neighboring countries, etc.), as well as the lack of sea exports, Ukrainian farmers and traders continue to provide the world with the necessary food,” analysts said.
They specified that the Danube river ports remain the most efficient channel, thanks to which 4% of agricultural exports were delivered to foreign markets in August.
According to UCAB, in August 2023, the share of grain crops in the structure of agricultural exports increased by 2% and amounted to 2.3 mln tons (wheat – 52%, corn – 39%, barley – 9%).
Exports of oilseeds increased 2.3 times to 755.4 thousand tons (rapeseed – 94%, soybeans – 4%, and sunflower seeds – 1%).
The share of oilcake after extraction from vegetable oils in Ukraine’s agricultural exports in August 2023 increased by 15% to 367.3 thsd tonnes (sunflower – 98%, soybean – 2%).
The supply volumes of vegetable oils remained unchanged at 548.9 thsd tonnes (sunflower oil – 81%, rapeseed oil – 17%, soybean oil – 2%).
The analysts noted that the biggest changes in August 2023 were observed in the exports of oilseeds, the volume of which increased by 2.3 times. The main reason was the end of the rapeseed harvest in Ukraine and active exports.
“The next month is important for determining further trends in Ukrainian exports, as the ban on exports of four key items to neighboring countries is due to expire on September 15, 2023. The lifting of this restriction will significantly improve the situation with Ukrainian exports, which is what the entire Ukrainian agricultural sector hopes for,” UCAB summarized.
