The potential reintegration of Donbas might add up to 1.5 percentage points (pp) to Ukraine’s GDP growth during two or three years, Bank of America (BofA) has said in its analytical review.
BofA said that the potential integration of territories could increase nominal GDP by 3-5 pp and accelerate growth by 1-1.5 pp in the period after the post-war recovery.
The analysts said that the post-war recovery might be partially financed with external donor assistance.
Both Donetsk and Luhansk regions accounted for more than 15.7% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2012, before the war. The contribution of these regions, still under Ukrainian control, fell to about 12.7% of GDP in 2017. BofA believes that this might indicate a one-time increase in relation to nominal GDP values of at least 3%.
According to the analysts, the normalization of economic relations with the region could accelerate the growth of real GDP in the first year by 0.5 pp.
Ukrainian banks in the fourth quarter of 2019 reduced interest rates on hryvnia loans for businesses by 2.4 percentage points (p.p.), to 15.7% per annum, following a reduction in the refinancing rate by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). According to the banking sector survey posted on the National Bank’s website, the reduction in the cost of hryvnia loans for individuals was less noticeable: in the fourth quarter of 2019 the rates fell by 0.5 percentage points, to 33.6% per annum.
At the same time, according to the document, the rates on foreign currency loans to business entities are at a historically low level of 4.6% in December 2019.
The report also notes that the rates on deposits of individuals began to decline only in December, following the reduction in rates by state banks.
“During the year, state banks kept deposit rates at a high level due to inertia in the management of liabilities and assets and legal risks of PrivatBank,” the document says.
So, according to the report, the value of 12-month hryvnia deposits of individuals in the fourth quarter of 2019 decreased by 0.7 percentage points, to 15.1% per annum, in January 2020 it continued to decline by 1.1 percentage points, and in the first week of February by another 1 percentage point, to 13% per annum.
At the same time, the value of 12-month household deposits in U.S. dollars for the fourth quarter of 2019 decreased by 0.6 percentage points, to 2.6% per annum, and in 2020 by another 0.7 percentage points.
In addition, according to the document, the cost of hryvnia funds of corporations during the fourth quarter of 2019 fell by 2.7 percentage points, to 10.3% per annum.
Work on a possible deal to acquire Credit Dnipro Bank by Oleksandr Yaroslavsky from Victor Pinchuk is ongoing. “Work is ongoing. It will be a good business, if you manage to buy. There is experience, you know that we probably have the most successful experience in working in the financial sector with UkrSibbank,” Yaroslavsky told Interfax-Ukraine at the Ukrainian House in Davos, organized by the Pinchuk Foundation, WNISEF and Horizon Capital.
According to him, with the proper operation of the bank, the need for its constant capitalization by the shareholder will disappear.
Yaroslavsky also said that he was ready to take part in large privatization, but so far the facilities offered by the State Property Fund have a lot of problems. “Everything sounds so good, but when you know the inside situation, it doesn’t look very good,” the businessman said.
In particular, with the case of the United Mining and Chemical Company, he pointed out the need to deal with property issues, in the case of the Odesa Port-Side Plant, there is a debt of $250 million to the structures of Dmytro Firtash.
“Elektrotyazhmash is also an interesting enterprise, but it is unclear in what condition it is. And 85% of the market is Russia,” Yaroslavsky added.
Quotes of interbank currency market of Ukraine
The shareholders of Bank Alliance (Kyiv) at an extraordinary general meeting on November 27 will consider the issue of increasing charter capital by 40.4%, or by UAH 105.12 million, to UAH 365.12 million by capitalizing part of profit, according to a bank report in the information disclosure system of the National Commission on Securities and the Stock Market.
According to the report, the increase is planned to be carried out by increasing the nominal value of shares from UAH 16.25 to UAH 22.82 by sending part of profit for 2018 to the bank’s charter capital.
According to the NBU, as of July 1, 2019 Bank Alliance ranked 31st among 76 banks operating in the country in terms of total assets (UAH 3.137 billion).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has started the second stage of the resilience assessment of banks – the asset quality review (AQR) confirmed by an external auditor and started stress testing of 29 banks, according to a survey of the banking sector posted on the website of the NBU.
According to preliminary estimates, the number of banks requiring capital injections in the baseline and negative stress test scenario will decrease compared to the previous year, the central bank said in the survey.
As the regulator recalled, by the end of 2019, banks need to form a capital conservation buffer in the amount of 0.625%. It will become mandatory for each bank from the beginning of 2020, when the first stage of the introduction of the capital conservation buffer will begin. In the future, the size of the buffer will increase gradually every year and will reach 2.5% from January 1, 2023. The formation of the corresponding buffer will ensure that banks create a stock of capital in excess of the minimum requirements. In the future, this will provide an opportunity of absorbing the possible losses that may arise in a general economic recession, without violating the capital adequacy ratio.
The NBU also announced that during the second quarter the method for determining systemically important banks will be changed and an updated list of such banks will be made public. In the future, the NBU will require them to form a buffer of system importance.
As reported, in 2019, 29 banks that account for 93% of the banking system will undergo stress testing in addition to the AQR. These 29 banks were rated as the largest ones as of November 1, 2018 by three indicators: risk-weighted assets, retail deposits, and retail loans.
The following banks will be tested: state-owned PrivatBank, Oschadbank, Ukreximbank and Ukrgasbank, private Alfa-Bank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, FUIB, UkrSibbank, OTP Bank, Credit Agricole Bank, Pivdenny Bank, TAScombank and Kredobank. The list also includes Sberbank, ProCredit Bank, Ukrsotsbank (the results of stress testing for the bank will be assessed taking into account the dynamics of its joining Alfa-Bank), Megabank, Credit Dnipro Bank, Universal Bank, A-Bank, Prominvestbank, Idea Bank, Bank Vostok, MTB Bank, Bank of Investments and Savings, Industrial Bank, Bank Globus, International Investment Bank and Bank Forward.
According to the resilience assessment findings, the regulator will determine the required levels for the regulatory capital adequacy ratio (N2) and the common equity adequacy ratio (N3). The required level of the capital adequacy ratios will be estimated in order to ensure banks’ compliance with the minimum requirements of N2 and N3 according to the baseline scenario (10% and 7%, respectively) and less strict requirements to the said ratios under the adverse scenario (5% and 3.5%, respectively) throughout the entire forecast period.
In 2018, the NBU has launched resilience assessment of banks that includes stress testing a list of banks defined by the NBU.
