International rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised its estimates of the cost of iron ore, base metals and coal in the short and medium term, which it uses in its forecasts of operating activities and financial performance of companies in the sector.
The increase in the outlook for copper prices is due to expectations of tight global market conditions. The opening of the Chinese economy will lead to an increase in demand in the near future, as that country accounts for about 55% of global refined copper consumption. In addition, in the medium and long term, demand will be supported by the energy transition. That said, supply of the metal may be constrained by factors such as deteriorating mine productivity in Chile and political protests in Peru.
“We have raised our iron ore price forecast for 2023-2025 as stronger demand from the steel sector in Europe, North America and several Asian countries will offset a gradual decline in Chinese steel production,” the agency said in a statement. – Problems with iron ore supply in Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine will support prices in the short and medium term.
Fitch analysts kept estimates for aluminum prices unchanged except for 2025. “CRU forecasts that global aluminum inventories will remain at about 50 days in the coming years, indicating a market equilibrium,” the report said.
According to CRU, a rebound in demand from China amid lower production in Peru should reduce the global zinc surplus to 100,000 tons in 2023 from 420,000 tons last year. As a result, Fitch revised its price forecast for this metal for the current year.
The increase in estimates of the cost of gold in 2023-2025. “reflects the metal’s investment status in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about economic growth, as well as price resilience despite rising interest rates,” the agency said in a review.
The upward revision of nickel price forecast is due to, among other things, the recovery of stainless steel production in China.
