According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of September 28 through October 2 mostly in positive territory: Bitcoin (BTC) once again surpassed the $86,000 mark, Ethereum (ETH) approached the $2,750 mark, and investors shifted their focus to the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the continued inflow of institutional capital into digital assets.
As of Friday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around $86,500, having risen nearly 3% over the previous 24 hours. During trading, prices approached $87,000. For comparison, on September 25, BTC was trading at around $84,400.
Ethereum traded in the range of $2,740–$2,750 on Friday, compared to approximately $2,670 at the start of the week.
Cryptocurrencies were supported by a decline in expectations regarding further monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following the release of U.S. labor market data, which came in weaker than expected, Treasury yields fell, and market estimates suggest the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October has decreased significantly.
The liquidation of short positions served as an additional driver of growth. As Bitcoin rose to $87,000, the volume of liquidations in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $300 million over the course of a single day.
This week marked a continuation of a strong third quarter for cryptocurrencies. From July through September, Bitcoin rose by more than 40%, and Ethereum by more than 70%, although both of the largest cryptocurrencies remain below their all-time highs set in 2025.
Amid the market recovery, Citigroup raised its 12-month price forecasts for the largest cryptocurrencies. The forecast for Bitcoin has been raised to $113,000 from the previous $82,000, and for Ethereum to $3,028,000 from $2,024,000. The bank attributes the revision to increased activity in the cryptocurrency market, changes in the macroeconomic situation, and the resumption of capital inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs.
A key development this week was the continued convergence of the traditional banking system with stablecoins. On September 28, Citigroup and the U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase announced an expansion of their partnership in the field of digital payments.
The companies intend to integrate Citi’s banking infrastructure with Coinbase’s cryptocurrency payment infrastructure. Corporate clients will be able to use solutions for accepting payments in stablecoins and converting them into traditional currencies. The partnership is primarily focused on international settlements and payments operating 24/7.
Another trend of the week was the continued development of rules governing how institutional investors handle crypto assets.
On October 1, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new framework for the custody of digital assets by investment advisors and regulated funds. This proposal aims to establish a specific regulatory framework for the custody of cryptoassets and to define the conditions under which financial institutions may hold digital assets.
Thus, the U.S. regulator is gradually shifting from regulating the crypto market primarily through enforcement to establishing specific rules for digital assets.
At the same time, regulations in the United Kingdom are changing. On September 30, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) began accepting applications from cryptocurrency companies wishing to operate under the UK’s new regulatory regime for digital assets.
Companies must submit their applications by February 28, 2027. The UK’s new cryptocurrency market regulatory framework is set to take effect in October 2027.
The market’s attention remains firmly focused on the tokenization of traditional financial assets. One of the key developments in late September was an agreement between the New York Stock Exchange and Blockchain.com to expand access to tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs.
The parties signed a memorandum of understanding that provides for the possibility of granting Blockchain.com clients access to tokenized securities traded on a dedicated digital platform operated by the NYSE. The project’s implementation will depend on obtaining the necessary approvals from regulatory authorities.
Another notable change is taking place in the stablecoin market. Tether is preparing to bring USDT back into the Bitcoin ecosystem more than a decade after the token effectively left it. This is expected to happen using the new RGB protocol, which allows for the issuance of digital assets based on the Bitcoin network.
At the same time, the stablecoin market continues to face regulatory and sanctions-related risks. A report published this week by the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations highlighted the widespread use of USDT by entities linked to Iran to circumvent sanctions. In response, Tether announced its cooperation with U.S. authorities and reported that it had frozen nearly $550 million in USDT linked to Iran in 2026.
Thus, the week highlighted several trends that are currently shaping the crypto industry: the recovery in the value of major digital assets, the return of institutional demand, the integration of stablecoins into traditional banking payments, and the gradual establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework in the U.S. and the U.K.
In the coming weeks, key factors for the market will remain the Fed’s decisions, the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields, capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and further U.S. regulatory decisions.
Provided demand remains strong, the $87,000–$90,000 range remains the next key level for Bitcoin. However, cryptocurrencies’ high sensitivity to interest rates and macroeconomic data poses a risk of sharp corrections following strong growth in the third quarter.
Sources: Reuters, SEC, FCA, Coinbase, CoinDesk.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of September 19–25 with significant gains: Bitcoin rose to approximately $84,000, Ethereum to $2,670, and the total market capitalization of digital assets approached $3 trillion. At the same time, one of the week’s major developments was the sharp return of institutional capital to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, while U.S. regulators accelerated the development of rules for stablecoins and tokenized securities.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 25, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $84,000–84,400, having gained about 10% over seven days. Ethereum hovered around $2,670 and rose by approximately 9% over the week. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was about $2.97–2.98 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $107 billion. Bitcoin accounted for about 56.8% of the market capitalization, while Ethereum accounted for about 11%.
For comparison: in Fixygen’s previous weekly review dated September 18, Bitcoin was trading at around $78,1 thousand, Ethereum at around $2,51 thousand, and the market capitalization was estimated at approximately $2.77 trillion. Thus, the market gained about $200 billion in market capitalization over the week.
At the start of the current period, Bitcoin was trading at around $80,000–$81,000, but on September 21–22, it accelerated its growth and briefly rose above $87,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 21, the price reached approximately $86,600, and on September 22, it was around $86,200. Subsequently, the market partially corrected and moved into a consolidation phase near $84,000.
One of the key drivers was U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Monday, September 21, they recorded $998.95 million in net inflows—the highest daily figure in nearly 11 months. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $381.4 million, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB—$289.1 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC—$238.8 million.
This result stands in stark contrast to the previous week, when Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with a symbolic positive balance of $6.2 million, thanks solely to an inflow of $433 million during the final trading session. Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, recorded a net outflow of about $140 million, ending a four-week streak of inflows.
The growth occurred despite tight monetary policy. On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 3.75–4%. However, the market reacted less negatively to the Fed’s forecast of further rate hikes than investors had feared, and by September 18, Bitcoin had rebounded above $80,000.
Among the major altcoins, XRP and Solana continued to show strong momentum. During this period, XRP rose from approximately $1.40 on September 18 to $1.53–1.54 as of September 25, while Solana, after surging above $110, ended the period at $117. At its peak on September 21–22, SOL approached $119.
Just as important as price movements was the acceleration of the industry’s institutionalization. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a five-year pilot program called the Innovation Exemption, which allows for the trading of tokenized U.S. stocks directly through blockchain infrastructure, provided certain requirements are met. A tokenized stock must grant the investor the same rights as the corresponding traditional security, including the right to dividends and voting.
The next regulatory step was the Federal Reserve’s publication on September 24 of two proposed rules for issuers of payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. One of the drafts requires stablecoins to be fully backed by eligible highly liquid assets, including short-term U.S. Treasury securities, as well as capital and risk management requirements. The second draft establishes the procedure for banks to obtain authorization to issue payment stablecoins.
On the same day, the CFTC clarified the rules for the use of blockchain by regulated participants in the U.S. derivatives market. The updated guidance permits the use of tokenized forms of eligible assets and blockchain technologies to meet certain record-keeping requirements.
Traditional exchange infrastructure also continues to expand its work with digital assets. On September 22, the CME Group announced its intention to launch Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures, including standard and Micro contracts, starting October 19. In the first half of 2026, the average daily trading volume of CME cryptocurrency futures and options was 279,800 contracts with a notional value of approximately $8.3 billion per day.
Another structural trend is the growing use of stablecoins beyond speculative trading. According to a new Chainalysis study published on September 23, the global volume of measurable cryptoeconomic activity for the 12 months ending in June 2026 declined by only 1.6%, to approximately $9.4 trillion, despite a significantly steeper decline in market capitalization during that period. Cross-border stablecoin flows, according to the company’s estimates, rose by 77.5% to $220.3 billion. In its new Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index, Chainalysis also ranks Ukraine among the countries with the highest levels of digital asset adoption.
On certain blockchains, payments in stablecoins have already reached the scale of traditional payment infrastructure. Recently, approximately $150–190 billion in stablecoin transfers have been flowing through the Tron network each week, and the number of transactions is approaching 100 million per week.
At the same time, the week ended with a reminder of the technological risks that persist in the crypto industry. The Bitget exchange reported an attack that resulted in the withdrawal of approximately $351.6 million from its “hot” and “warm” wallets. According to CEO Gracy Chen, the private keys were not compromised: the attackers interfered with the backend infrastructure and used forged transaction data. The exchange stated that its cold wallets remained secure.
Regulatory risks have not gone away either. On September 24, New York state authorities filed a lawsuit against Polymarket’s U.S. division, accusing the prediction markets platform of conducting unlicensed gambling activities.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the market’s shift from simple price stabilization to a broader recovery in institutional demand. Bitcoin rose in price by approximately 10% over seven days, market capitalization once again approached $3 trillion, and nearly $1 billion in daily inflows into the Bitcoin ETF served as the strongest signal of large capital’s return in recent months.
At the same time, the very structure of the crypto industry continues to evolve: tokenized stocks are being regulated in the U.S., the Fed is moving toward the practical implementation of legislation regarding stablecoins, the CME is expanding its lineup of regulated crypto derivatives, and stablecoins are increasingly being used as a standalone payment infrastructure.
In the coming week, the main factors driving the market will remain the stability of capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields, the market’s continued reaction to the Fed’s rate hike, Bitcoin’s movement near the $84,000–87,000 range, as well as developments in regulatory initiatives by the SEC, CFTC, and the Federal Reserve.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of September 14–18 with a moderate rebound following sharp volatility: Bitcoin has returned to around $78,000, Ethereum is holding above $2,500, although U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 18, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,100, Ethereum at $2,510, BNB at around $750, and XRP at around $1.33. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.77 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $93 billion. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has risen by about 1%, Ethereum by 1.2%, BNB by more than 5%, and XRP by approximately 1.5%.
The start of the week was significantly more volatile. On September 14, Bitcoin was trading around $78,200, but by September 15, it had fallen to approximately $75,600. The next day, prices remained near $76,100, after which the market began to recover through Friday.
One of the main factors putting pressure on the market was the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—to 3.75–4%. The U.S. central bank attributed the decision to persistently high inflation. This marked the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
An additional source of uncertainty for the crypto industry was the U.S. Senate vote on H.R. 3633, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market and delineate the respective authorities of the SEC and the CFTC. On September 15, a procedural vote to move the bill to the floor ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, while three-fifths of the Senate’s votes were required for passage.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs remained negative for most of the week. According to Farside Investors, over the four trading sessions from September 14–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $427 million. Following an inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and $295.9 million on Wednesday. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with a net inflow of $159.5 million. Data for Friday had not yet been compiled at the time this review was prepared.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs was even weaker. Over the same period, net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum funds totaled approximately $284 million. On Monday, the funds attracted $121.1 million, but over the next three trading sessions, they lost $142 million, $224.1 million, and $39.3 million, respectively.
At the same time, at the end of the week, the crypto industry received a positive regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On September 17, the SEC introduced the so-called Innovation Exemption—a temporary five-year regime that, under certain conditions, allows for the trading of tokenized shares of U.S. companies via blockchain infrastructure and permissioned AMM pools. The SEC emphasized that tokenized shares must grant holders the same rights as the corresponding traditional securities.
The news boosted companies involved in digital assets and was one of the factors behind the recovery in market sentiment at the end of the week. In Friday’s trading, Coinbase shares rose by more than 3%, Strategy by about 4%, and Robinhood by 3.5%, while Bitcoin climbed back to the $78,000 range.
At the same time, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5% this week, and the price of Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and risks to energy supplies. High oil prices exacerbate inflationary risks and may support a tighter monetary policy by central banks, which traditionally curbs demand for crypto assets.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the resilience of the largest cryptocurrencies in the face of a simultaneous deterioration in the monetary and regulatory environment. Bitcoin closed the previous week near $77,100 and, as of September 18, is trading above $78,000, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization rose from approximately $2.73 trillion to $2.77 trillion.
At the same time, negative outflows from ETFs indicate that the recovery has not yet been accompanied by a steady return of large institutional capital. Next week, the market will continue to be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s next moves, trends in U.S. bonds and oil, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the future of legislation governing the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
According to Fixygen, the strategies of the largest public companies that have built up cryptocurrency reserves began to diverge significantly in September.
Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has not purchased any BTC for the second week in a row. Instead, the company allocated approximately $139.3 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares.
As of September 13, Strategy held approximately 845.05 thousand BTC, purchased for a total of $63.73 billion. The average purchase price was about $75.4 thousand per Bitcoin.
In other words, the company temporarily redirected part of its free liquidity from Bitcoin accumulation toward managing its own capital structure.
For Strategy, the STRC buyback makes economic sense, as it allows the company to reduce future dividend obligations if the securities trade below their par value of $100. The company announced back in the summer that it intends to regularly repurchase STRC at a significant discount.
BitMine Immersion Technologies is pursuing a completely opposite strategy.
On September 14, the company reported that it had increased its reserves to 5.96 million ETH, which corresponds to approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply of 122 million tokens.
Over the course of the week, BitMine acquired an additional 27,000 ETH, bringing it closer to its goal of holding 5% of Ethereum’s supply.
The company estimates the total value of its crypto assets and cash reserves at approximately $15.8 billion.
The difference between the two models is becoming increasingly apparent. Strategy is effectively building a financial company centered on Bitcoin and managing a complex system of common stock, preferred securities, and debt capital.
BitMine, on the other hand, is trying to accumulate Ethereum as quickly as possible while simultaneously capitalizing on the opportunity to generate income from staking.
This divergence points to the next stage in the development of companies managing digital assets: the market is beginning to evaluate not only the quantity of accumulated coins, but also the method of financing, the cost of capital, the return on assets, and the risk of dilution for shareholders.
According to Fixygen, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price swings on individual trading days.
An analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most important factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders. This metric better explains changes in volatility than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the market size that matters, but also the structure of BTC holders.
Bitcoin, which previously circulated largely among speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This may reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and decrease the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more sustained bull market.
At the same time, the high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial situation of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market in the event of further price increases, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is, for now, more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If an increasing portion of the supply remains held by ETFs, corporations, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin.
According to Fixygen, there are still no signs of a broad shift of capital from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, despite periodic rallies in individual tokens and Ethereum’s strengthening.
According to CoinMarketCap data as of September 12, 2026, the Altcoin Season Index stands at about 40 points out of 100, which is significantly below the 75-point threshold at which the market is considered to have entered a full-fledged altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at about 58.7%, while Ethereum’s is 11.6%.
CoinMarketCap defines altseason as a period when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and certain asset-backed tokens—have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
BlockchainCenter’s alternative index also does not yet indicate an altseason: its value stands at around 33 points, while the required threshold is 75.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.76 trillion. Bitcoin remains the largest asset with a market cap of about $1.55 trillion.
Bitcoin’s high market share indicates that a significant portion of new capital continues to be concentrated in the largest and most liquid crypto asset. This trend is driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate BTC purchases, and investor caution regarding less liquid tokens.
However, this situation differs from the classic cryptocurrency cycles of previous years, when, following strong growth in Bitcoin, capital would sequentially flow first into Ethereum, then into major altcoins, and finally into more speculative assets with smaller market capitalizations.
Certain altcoins have periodically outperformed Bitcoin significantly in the current cycle as well; however, so far these have been isolated instances rather than broad-based growth across the entire segment.
Ethereum has strengthened its position in recent months: its market share has grown from about 9% three months ago to around 11%, but this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale rotation of capital away from Bitcoin.
