According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of October 12–16, 2026, amid heightened volatility and declining investor interest in risky assets. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $82,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,450. The main factors putting pressure on the market were accelerating inflation in the U.S., capital outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs, and MSCI’s decision to revise the criteria for including companies that hold digital assets in international stock indices.
According to market quotes as of October 16, Bitcoin has partially recovered after falling to a four-week low of around $79,800 the previous day. Earlier in the week, the largest cryptocurrency traded mostly above $82,000, but the release of U.S. macroeconomic data intensified selling pressure.
Ethereum showed weaker performance, falling to approximately $2,440–$2,450 from $2,500 at the end of the previous week. Other major digital assets were also under pressure, notably Solana, which traded at around $105.
The most significant event for financial markets was the release on October 14 of U.S. Department of Labor data on September inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Additional pressure came from producer price data released on October 15: the PPI rose by 1.3% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Annual producer inflation reached 6.3%.
The acceleration in inflation has heightened market participants’ concerns regarding the future policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. For cryptocurrencies, this implies the risk of persistently high interest rates, which limit the availability of liquidity and investment demand for highly volatile assets.
This negative trend has impacted U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on digital assets.
According to statistics from Farside Investors, over four trading sessions from October 12 to 15, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled approximately $146 million. The largest outflow was recorded on October 14, when investors withdrew $261.4 million. Meanwhile, on October 13, the funds attracted $175.7 million, and on October 15, another $5.1 million.
From spot Ethereum ETFs, investors withdrew approximately $250.4 million over the same period. The largest single-day outflow occurred on October 14 and totaled $129.5 million, while on October 15, the funds lost another $60.3 million.
Thus, the total net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds over four trading days reached approximately $396.4 million. The results of Friday’s trading session have not yet been included in these calculations.
A notable event of the week was the decision by international index provider MSCI, announced on October 15, to change the methodology for including non-operating companies in global stock indices.
The new rules provide for the exclusion of companies whose financial characteristics make them comparable to investment funds and other passive investment structures. The changes will take effect following the November index review, which is scheduled to conclude on November 30.
Public companies whose activities are largely related to the accumulation of Bitcoin and other digital assets fall under these potential restrictions. Among them are Michael Saylor’s U.S.-based Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet.
MSCI intends to publish the final list of affected companies on November 11. The decision itself does not mean the automatic exclusion of all companies with cryptocurrency reserves: classification will depend on established financial criteria.
According to Reuters, Strategy had previously estimated the potential volume of sales of its shares by index funds in the event of exclusion from the indices at approximately $2.8 billion. Against the backdrop of this news, the company’s shares fell by more than 4% on October 16.
Meanwhile, corporate purchases of Bitcoin continue.
U.S.-based Strive Inc., whose shares trade on the Nasdaq, announced on October 13 that it had purchased 3,311 BTC between October 5 and 9 at an average price of about $84,500. The total value of the purchase was approximately $279.8 million, and the company’s total cryptocurrency reserve increased to 32,773 BTC.
On October 14, Strive announced the additional purchase of 2,822 BTC between October 12 and 13 at an average price of $83,270. The total value of this batch is estimated at approximately $235 million.
Thus, taking into account the two announced purchases, the company’s Bitcoin reserves are estimated to have reached 35,595 BTC.
At the same time, Strive reported the exercise of stock warrants, which is expected to raise approximately $369.2 million before deducting related expenses.
These transactions indicate that demand for Bitcoin from certain public companies remains strong, even amid downward pressure on prices and a decline in investments in exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds.
At the same time, the infrastructure for servicing digital assets by traditional financial institutions is developing.
On October 16, Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to launch its first cryptocurrency custody service for institutional and corporate clients in the coming weeks. Initially, the platform will operate in Germany, after which the bank expects to expand its presence to Asia’s major financial centers by 2027.
In the initial phase, the service will focus on storing Bitcoin and Ethereum. Going forward, Deutsche Bank plans to add transactions involving stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and digital securities.
The German bank views blockchain infrastructure as a complement to traditional financial services, rather than a replacement for them.
On the regulatory front, a document published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S. Federal Register on October 13 drew particular attention; it outlines the development of comprehensive rules for certain retail transactions involving cryptoassets.
The initiative was initially announced by the regulator on October 5. It aims to establish a legal framework for cryptocurrency markets, increase transaction transparency, and protect retail investors. The public comment period for the document will run until December 14, 2026.
At this stage, the focus is on drafting regulations, not on the new requirements taking effect.
Thus, the main theme of the week was the divergence between short-term cryptocurrency price movements and the development of industry infrastructure. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets came under pressure from macroeconomic factors, yet traditional banks continued to develop new products, and some public companies continued to expand their cryptocurrency reserves.
Next week, investors will be watching the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds, changes in expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rates, capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the implications of MSCI’s decision.
For the corporate sector, preparations for the November 11 announcement of the final list of companies that may be removed from international stock indices will be particularly important.
The beginning of October showed that market volatility is still very much present. After a strong third quarter, investors once again began to partially lock in profits: in a single week, approximately $681 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, and over the two trading days of October 7–8, outflows approached $730 million.
According to Experts Club, the situation in the crypto market in 2026 bears less and less resemblance to previous cycles, which were entirely dependent on retail speculation. ETFs, institutional portfolios, corporate reserves, and regulated exchange-traded products are playing an increasingly significant role.
At the same time, this makes the market more sensitive to global interest rates, the dollar exchange rate, capital flows between tech stocks and digital assets, as well as decisions by major asset management firms.
Therefore, the strong growth in the third quarter should, for now, be viewed more as a recovery from the sharp decline in the first half of the year rather than as a guarantee of sustained one-sided growth.
According to Fixygen, as of October 9, the cryptocurrency market is tentatively ending the week on a down note after a relatively strong start to the month. The main factors putting pressure on the market were rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, high oil prices, and lingering concerns about the future policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin traded above $86,000 at the start of the week but fell to approximately $80,400 on October 8. By the morning of October 9, the largest cryptocurrency had partially recovered to around $82,500. Thus, compared to the levels at the start of the week, the decline amounts to about 4–5%.
Ethereum came under even greater pressure. On October 5, ETH was trading around $2,710, and on October 9, around $2,500. The decline since the start of the week approached 8%. The drop was particularly pronounced on October 7–8, when Ethereum lost about 8% over two days.
Outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs served as an additional negative factor. As of October 7, funds had been withdrawn from these ETFs for seven consecutive trading sessions. Over the past five sessions, the net outflow totaled approximately $506 million, with investors withdrawing another $161 million on October 7.
At the same time, institutional investors’ long-term interest in cryptocurrencies remains strong. Bitcoin remains significantly above the lows of the first half of 2026, and traditional financial firms continue to launch new exchange-traded products related to digital assets.
A key development this week was the continued development of a new regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market. On October 5, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a federal regulatory regime for cryptocurrency platforms offering leveraged trading to retail clients.
The proposal calls for the creation of a separate category of regulated platforms—crypto asset markets. These platforms may be required to provide proof of reserves, implement mechanisms to prevent market manipulation, and register under the federal framework. This is effectively an attempt by the regulator to partially fill the legal vacuum after Congress failed to advance the sweeping Clarity Act.
At the same time, cryptocurrency infrastructure continues to penetrate mainstream payment services. Samsung announced on October 7 that, in the last week of the month, it will integrate support for USDC directly into Samsung Wallet for users of compatible Galaxy devices in the U.S.
The feature will potentially be available on approximately 82 million compatible devices. Users will be able to send USDC to crypto wallets, as well as transfer funds to bank accounts in more than 60 countries with conversion to local currency. Samsung is exploring the possibility of further expanding the use of stablecoins, including for paying for goods and services.
Thus, the main highlight of the week was the divergence between short-term market dynamics and the development of the crypto industry itself. Prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many altcoins fell amid a decline in global risk appetite; however, at the same time, the market’s institutionalization, regulatory development, and the integration of stablecoins into mainstream financial services continued.
Next week, market participants will focus on U.S. inflation data and expectations regarding the Fed’s future decisions. Rising U.S. Treasury yields remain one of the main risks for Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
Source: Reuters, Samsung Electronics, LSEG, U.S. ETF data.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of September 28 through October 2 mostly in positive territory: Bitcoin (BTC) once again surpassed the $86,000 mark, Ethereum (ETH) approached the $2,750 mark, and investors shifted their focus to the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the continued inflow of institutional capital into digital assets.
As of Friday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around $86,500, having risen nearly 3% over the previous 24 hours. During trading, prices approached $87,000. For comparison, on September 25, BTC was trading at around $84,400.
Ethereum traded in the range of $2,740–$2,750 on Friday, compared to approximately $2,670 at the start of the week.
Cryptocurrencies were supported by a decline in expectations regarding further monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following the release of U.S. labor market data, which came in weaker than expected, Treasury yields fell, and market estimates suggest the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October has decreased significantly.
The liquidation of short positions served as an additional driver of growth. As Bitcoin rose to $87,000, the volume of liquidations in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $300 million over the course of a single day.
This week marked a continuation of a strong third quarter for cryptocurrencies. From July through September, Bitcoin rose by more than 40%, and Ethereum by more than 70%, although both of the largest cryptocurrencies remain below their all-time highs set in 2025.
Amid the market recovery, Citigroup raised its 12-month price forecasts for the largest cryptocurrencies. The forecast for Bitcoin has been raised to $113,000 from the previous $82,000, and for Ethereum to $3,028,000 from $2,024,000. The bank attributes the revision to increased activity in the cryptocurrency market, changes in the macroeconomic situation, and the resumption of capital inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs.
A key development this week was the continued convergence of the traditional banking system with stablecoins. On September 28, Citigroup and the U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase announced an expansion of their partnership in the field of digital payments.
The companies intend to integrate Citi’s banking infrastructure with Coinbase’s cryptocurrency payment infrastructure. Corporate clients will be able to use solutions for accepting payments in stablecoins and converting them into traditional currencies. The partnership is primarily focused on international settlements and payments operating 24/7.
Another trend of the week was the continued development of rules governing how institutional investors handle crypto assets.
On October 1, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new framework for the custody of digital assets by investment advisors and regulated funds. This proposal aims to establish a specific regulatory framework for the custody of cryptoassets and to define the conditions under which financial institutions may hold digital assets.
Thus, the U.S. regulator is gradually shifting from regulating the crypto market primarily through enforcement to establishing specific rules for digital assets.
At the same time, regulations in the United Kingdom are changing. On September 30, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) began accepting applications from cryptocurrency companies wishing to operate under the UK’s new regulatory regime for digital assets.
Companies must submit their applications by February 28, 2027. The UK’s new cryptocurrency market regulatory framework is set to take effect in October 2027.
The market’s attention remains firmly focused on the tokenization of traditional financial assets. One of the key developments in late September was an agreement between the New York Stock Exchange and Blockchain.com to expand access to tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs.
The parties signed a memorandum of understanding that provides for the possibility of granting Blockchain.com clients access to tokenized securities traded on a dedicated digital platform operated by the NYSE. The project’s implementation will depend on obtaining the necessary approvals from regulatory authorities.
Another notable change is taking place in the stablecoin market. Tether is preparing to bring USDT back into the Bitcoin ecosystem more than a decade after the token effectively left it. This is expected to happen using the new RGB protocol, which allows for the issuance of digital assets based on the Bitcoin network.
At the same time, the stablecoin market continues to face regulatory and sanctions-related risks. A report published this week by the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations highlighted the widespread use of USDT by entities linked to Iran to circumvent sanctions. In response, Tether announced its cooperation with U.S. authorities and reported that it had frozen nearly $550 million in USDT linked to Iran in 2026.
Thus, the week highlighted several trends that are currently shaping the crypto industry: the recovery in the value of major digital assets, the return of institutional demand, the integration of stablecoins into traditional banking payments, and the gradual establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework in the U.S. and the U.K.
In the coming weeks, key factors for the market will remain the Fed’s decisions, the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields, capital flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and further U.S. regulatory decisions.
Provided demand remains strong, the $87,000–$90,000 range remains the next key level for Bitcoin. However, cryptocurrencies’ high sensitivity to interest rates and macroeconomic data poses a risk of sharp corrections following strong growth in the third quarter.
Sources: Reuters, SEC, FCA, Coinbase, CoinDesk.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of September 19–25 with significant gains: Bitcoin rose to approximately $84,000, Ethereum to $2,670, and the total market capitalization of digital assets approached $3 trillion. At the same time, one of the week’s major developments was the sharp return of institutional capital to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, while U.S. regulators accelerated the development of rules for stablecoins and tokenized securities.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 25, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $84,000–84,400, having gained about 10% over seven days. Ethereum hovered around $2,670 and rose by approximately 9% over the week. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was about $2.97–2.98 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $107 billion. Bitcoin accounted for about 56.8% of the market capitalization, while Ethereum accounted for about 11%.
For comparison: in Fixygen’s previous weekly review dated September 18, Bitcoin was trading at around $78,1 thousand, Ethereum at around $2,51 thousand, and the market capitalization was estimated at approximately $2.77 trillion. Thus, the market gained about $200 billion in market capitalization over the week.
At the start of the current period, Bitcoin was trading at around $80,000–$81,000, but on September 21–22, it accelerated its growth and briefly rose above $87,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 21, the price reached approximately $86,600, and on September 22, it was around $86,200. Subsequently, the market partially corrected and moved into a consolidation phase near $84,000.
One of the key drivers was U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Monday, September 21, they recorded $998.95 million in net inflows—the highest daily figure in nearly 11 months. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $381.4 million, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB—$289.1 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC—$238.8 million.
This result stands in stark contrast to the previous week, when Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with a symbolic positive balance of $6.2 million, thanks solely to an inflow of $433 million during the final trading session. Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, recorded a net outflow of about $140 million, ending a four-week streak of inflows.
The growth occurred despite tight monetary policy. On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 3.75–4%. However, the market reacted less negatively to the Fed’s forecast of further rate hikes than investors had feared, and by September 18, Bitcoin had rebounded above $80,000.
Among the major altcoins, XRP and Solana continued to show strong momentum. During this period, XRP rose from approximately $1.40 on September 18 to $1.53–1.54 as of September 25, while Solana, after surging above $110, ended the period at $117. At its peak on September 21–22, SOL approached $119.
Just as important as price movements was the acceleration of the industry’s institutionalization. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a five-year pilot program called the Innovation Exemption, which allows for the trading of tokenized U.S. stocks directly through blockchain infrastructure, provided certain requirements are met. A tokenized stock must grant the investor the same rights as the corresponding traditional security, including the right to dividends and voting.
The next regulatory step was the Federal Reserve’s publication on September 24 of two proposed rules for issuers of payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. One of the drafts requires stablecoins to be fully backed by eligible highly liquid assets, including short-term U.S. Treasury securities, as well as capital and risk management requirements. The second draft establishes the procedure for banks to obtain authorization to issue payment stablecoins.
On the same day, the CFTC clarified the rules for the use of blockchain by regulated participants in the U.S. derivatives market. The updated guidance permits the use of tokenized forms of eligible assets and blockchain technologies to meet certain record-keeping requirements.
Traditional exchange infrastructure also continues to expand its work with digital assets. On September 22, the CME Group announced its intention to launch Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures, including standard and Micro contracts, starting October 19. In the first half of 2026, the average daily trading volume of CME cryptocurrency futures and options was 279,800 contracts with a notional value of approximately $8.3 billion per day.
Another structural trend is the growing use of stablecoins beyond speculative trading. According to a new Chainalysis study published on September 23, the global volume of measurable cryptoeconomic activity for the 12 months ending in June 2026 declined by only 1.6%, to approximately $9.4 trillion, despite a significantly steeper decline in market capitalization during that period. Cross-border stablecoin flows, according to the company’s estimates, rose by 77.5% to $220.3 billion. In its new Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index, Chainalysis also ranks Ukraine among the countries with the highest levels of digital asset adoption.
On certain blockchains, payments in stablecoins have already reached the scale of traditional payment infrastructure. Recently, approximately $150–190 billion in stablecoin transfers have been flowing through the Tron network each week, and the number of transactions is approaching 100 million per week.
At the same time, the week ended with a reminder of the technological risks that persist in the crypto industry. The Bitget exchange reported an attack that resulted in the withdrawal of approximately $351.6 million from its “hot” and “warm” wallets. According to CEO Gracy Chen, the private keys were not compromised: the attackers interfered with the backend infrastructure and used forged transaction data. The exchange stated that its cold wallets remained secure.
Regulatory risks have not gone away either. On September 24, New York state authorities filed a lawsuit against Polymarket’s U.S. division, accusing the prediction markets platform of conducting unlicensed gambling activities.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the market’s shift from simple price stabilization to a broader recovery in institutional demand. Bitcoin rose in price by approximately 10% over seven days, market capitalization once again approached $3 trillion, and nearly $1 billion in daily inflows into the Bitcoin ETF served as the strongest signal of large capital’s return in recent months.
At the same time, the very structure of the crypto industry continues to evolve: tokenized stocks are being regulated in the U.S., the Fed is moving toward the practical implementation of legislation regarding stablecoins, the CME is expanding its lineup of regulated crypto derivatives, and stablecoins are increasingly being used as a standalone payment infrastructure.
In the coming week, the main factors driving the market will remain the stability of capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the dynamics of U.S. Treasury yields, the market’s continued reaction to the Fed’s rate hike, Bitcoin’s movement near the $84,000–87,000 range, as well as developments in regulatory initiatives by the SEC, CFTC, and the Federal Reserve.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of September 14–18 with a moderate rebound following sharp volatility: Bitcoin has returned to around $78,000, Ethereum is holding above $2,500, although U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 18, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,100, Ethereum at $2,510, BNB at around $750, and XRP at around $1.33. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.77 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $93 billion. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has risen by about 1%, Ethereum by 1.2%, BNB by more than 5%, and XRP by approximately 1.5%.
The start of the week was significantly more volatile. On September 14, Bitcoin was trading around $78,200, but by September 15, it had fallen to approximately $75,600. The next day, prices remained near $76,100, after which the market began to recover through Friday.
One of the main factors putting pressure on the market was the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—to 3.75–4%. The U.S. central bank attributed the decision to persistently high inflation. This marked the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
An additional source of uncertainty for the crypto industry was the U.S. Senate vote on H.R. 3633, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market and delineate the respective authorities of the SEC and the CFTC. On September 15, a procedural vote to move the bill to the floor ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, while three-fifths of the Senate’s votes were required for passage.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs remained negative for most of the week. According to Farside Investors, over the four trading sessions from September 14–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $427 million. Following an inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and $295.9 million on Wednesday. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with a net inflow of $159.5 million. Data for Friday had not yet been compiled at the time this review was prepared.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs was even weaker. Over the same period, net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum funds totaled approximately $284 million. On Monday, the funds attracted $121.1 million, but over the next three trading sessions, they lost $142 million, $224.1 million, and $39.3 million, respectively.
At the same time, at the end of the week, the crypto industry received a positive regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On September 17, the SEC introduced the so-called Innovation Exemption—a temporary five-year regime that, under certain conditions, allows for the trading of tokenized shares of U.S. companies via blockchain infrastructure and permissioned AMM pools. The SEC emphasized that tokenized shares must grant holders the same rights as the corresponding traditional securities.
The news boosted companies involved in digital assets and was one of the factors behind the recovery in market sentiment at the end of the week. In Friday’s trading, Coinbase shares rose by more than 3%, Strategy by about 4%, and Robinhood by 3.5%, while Bitcoin climbed back to the $78,000 range.
At the same time, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5% this week, and the price of Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and risks to energy supplies. High oil prices exacerbate inflationary risks and may support a tighter monetary policy by central banks, which traditionally curbs demand for crypto assets.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the resilience of the largest cryptocurrencies in the face of a simultaneous deterioration in the monetary and regulatory environment. Bitcoin closed the previous week near $77,100 and, as of September 18, is trading above $78,000, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization rose from approximately $2.73 trillion to $2.77 trillion.
At the same time, negative outflows from ETFs indicate that the recovery has not yet been accompanied by a steady return of large institutional capital. Next week, the market will continue to be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s next moves, trends in U.S. bonds and oil, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the future of legislation governing the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
