According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market began to recover last week and early this week following a weak start to the year: Bitcoin returned above $80,000 and rose to $81,600 on May 5, while Ethereum traded around $2,380 and Solana around $85–86. According to MarketWatch, Bitcoin reached its highest level since late January, and the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index rose for six consecutive days, gaining about 8% over that period.
Last week, Bitcoin mostly traded within the $75,700–$80,000 range, while Ethereum traded around $2,200–$2,380. The market reacted to improved risk appetite, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and expectations of greater regulatory clarity in the U.S. According to Saxo, ETF flows were mixed midweek but turned positive again by Friday, supporting the price recovery.
Momentum picked up earlier this week: Bitcoin broke through $80,000 for the first time since late January, and a number of crypto stocks also rose amid discussions of a compromise on the U.S. Clarity Act, which is intended to clarify the regulation of the digital asset and stablecoin markets. Investors.com notes that the bill boosted sentiment in the sector, while demand for a Bitcoin ETF remained one of the drivers of growth.
Nevertheless, the market does not yet appear to be unequivocally bullish. Barron’s points out that, despite Bitcoin’s return above $80,000 and a rise of approximately 17% over the month, it remains significantly below the all-time high reached in the fall of 2025. The publication also notes that geopolitical tensions and the risk of rising oil prices continue to weigh on risky assets.
The main short-term trend is the market’s attempt to consolidate above the psychological $80,000 level for Bitcoin. If buyers hold this level, the next target could be the $84,000–$86,000 range, where profit-taking is likely following a rapid recovery. With weak ETF inflows or a deterioration in the broader market environment, Bitcoin could return to the $76,000–$78,000 range.
Ethereum currently appears weaker than Bitcoin. Its growth is supported by the general market recovery, but ETH has fewer strong drivers of its own. For the picture to improve, Ethereum needs to consolidate above $2,400; otherwise, it may continue to move sideways in the $2,200–2,400 range.
Altcoins remain dependent on Bitcoin’s performance. Solana and other major tokens are recovering, but investors remain cautious: following the sharp market drop at the start of the year, capital is first returning to Bitcoin and only then to riskier assets. Therefore, a full-fledged “alt season” is only possible with sustained BTC growth and reduced volatility.
The base case for the near term is moderately positive: the market may continue its recovery if Bitcoin stays above $80,000, ETF inflows persist, and regulatory expectations in the U.S. remain favorable. The negative scenario involves a return to a downtrend amid intensifying geopolitical risks, rising U.S. yields, or disappointment regarding ETF inflows. In this case, the crypto market may once again enter a defensive phase, where Bitcoin will appear more stable than most altcoins.
For Fixygen.ua, the key takeaway is that the current rally looks more like a recovery rally following a sharp decline than the start of a confident new bull cycle. The market needs three confirmations: Bitcoin’s sustained consolidation above $80,000, stable inflows into ETFs, and a reduction in macroeconomic risks. Without these, the rally may remain a technical bounce within a broader volatile phase.
According to Fixygen, Strategy Inc., one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, purchased $2.54 billion worth of the cryptocurrency last week, according to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This marks the company’s largest weekly Bitcoin purchase volume since November 2024.
According to the disclosed information, the purchase was financed using funds raised by Strategy through a $2.18 billion placement of preferred shares, as well as common shares.
Amid this news, the price of Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Monday, reaching $75,136. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has risen 6% in value.
At the same time, Strategy’s own shares fell 3% in pre-market trading in the U.S.
Strategy Inc. is an American software development company, formerly known as MicroStrategy. In recent years, it has become one of the most prominent public corporate investors in Bitcoin, making the purchase of cryptocurrency a key element of its financial strategy. The company regularly raises capital through stock and debt offerings to further expand its cryptocurrency reserves.
According to Fixygen, this week was marked by high volatility for the crypto market, but by the end of the week, digital assets had managed to recoup a significant portion of their losses. As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading around $71,530, having risen to $73,900 during the day. Ethereum held steady at $2,120, with an intraday high of $2,200. This indicates that, following a nervous reaction to the escalation in the Middle East, the market has once again shifted toward buying the dips.
The main external driver of the week remained the conflict surrounding Iran. Oil jumped to $119.5 per barrel at the start of the week, and by Friday, Brent was hovering around $100, which intensified fears of a new round of inflation and a deterioration in global risk sentiment. Against this backdrop, the crypto market initially traded like a classic risk asset but then began to appear more stable than stocks and a number of other volatile instruments.
According to Fixygen analysts, institutional flows provided support to the market. According to CoinShares, for the week ending March 9, digital investment products attracted $619 million, with nearly all of the positive momentum coming from the U.S. Bitcoin accounted for $521 million in net inflows, Ethereum for $88.5 million, and Solana for $14.6 million, while XRP, conversely, saw a notable outflow of $30.3 million. The week prior, the market had already seen $1 billion in inflows following five weeks of outflows, indicating a gradual return of demand after the February correction.
However, the week’s performance was uneven. CoinShares notes that in the first three days, investors poured $1.44 billion into digital assets, but then on Thursday and Friday, outflows of $829 million followed due to a spike in oil prices. In other words, the market remains extremely sensitive to macroeconomics: as soon as traders again saw the risk of higher inflation and tighter interest rate expectations, appetite for crypto assets immediately deteriorated.
From a fundamental perspective, the week was rather neutral-to-positive. On the one hand, expectations remain that the U.S. ETF market will continue to gradually expand the presence of institutional capital in cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, difficulties have resurfaced in the U.S. regarding a key bill to regulate the crypto market: negotiations have stalled due to a dispute between banks and crypto companies over the future model for stablecoin products. This means that the market continues to receive support from capital but lacks full regulatory clarity.
In the short term, the market looks like this: Bitcoin has once again consolidated above the psychological threshold of $70,000, while Ethereum is holding the $2,000 range. This is a positive sign following the nervousness seen in February and March. But if the oil shock drags on and inflationary pressure intensifies, cryptocurrencies could quickly return to a mode of sharp sell-offs. For now, the week has largely ended in favor of the bulls: institutional money has returned, Bitcoin has rebounded, and the market has shown that even against the backdrop of war and high oil prices, it is not yet ready to enter a full-blown phase of capitulation.
According to Fixygen, the crypto market spent the week in a mode of restrained correction and sideways movement. Bitcoin fell by approximately 1.9% over the period, from $68,978 to $67,700, maintaining a trading range of $65,740-70,167. Ethereum fell by approximately 2.0% over the same week, from $1,998.79 to $1,957.86, with a range of $1,907.76 to $2,037.08.
As of February 22, CoinMarketCap estimated Bitcoin’s capitalization at $1.35 trillion at a price of about $67,660, and Ethereum’s capitalization at $236.3 billion at a price of about $1,957.8. Trading volumes indicated the dominance of stablecoins in circulation: USDT traded around $42.19 billion per day, which is significantly higher than the total turnover of BTC and ETH for the same period.
The main factors of the week were continued tension around capital flows into crypto instruments and cautious risk appetite. The market discussed protracted outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and deteriorating sentiment amid macroeconomic uncertainty. At the same time, by the end of the week, Bitcoin showed relative stability at around $68,000, even amid news of tariff initiatives in the US.
The news agenda also highlighted the topic of stablecoin regulation and sanctions compliance. The Financial Times wrote about the European Commission’s proposal to expand the sanctions regime and effectively ban crypto transactions related to Russia, including references to specific payment solutions and stablecoin projects. Against this backdrop, on February 16, CoinDesk took a detailed look at the case of the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 and its attempts to scale up amid sanctions pressure.
According to Fixygen, the market will assess how stable demand is after a series of outflows from ETFs, how quickly risk appetite responds to trade tariff signals, and new regulatory steps in the US and EU.
Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Thursday for the first time since November 2024 — the market remains in risk-off mode, and investors continue to reduce their positions in risky assets. According to CoinDesk, by 13:53 Kyiv time, BTC was down 3.3% and trading at around $70,244. During the session, the price briefly dropped to $69,869.
Pressure was intensified by flows from US spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue, a net outflow of $545 million was recorded on Wednesday. BlackRock’s largest IBIT fund lost $373 million.
The fund for the sell-off is the narrowing of support from the “AI rally,” growing investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, discussions about the future trajectory of the Fed, and inflation remaining above target levels.
In January, Bitcoin fell nearly 11%, ending the month down for the fourth consecutive time. In 2025, the price had previously risen to a record $126,000 amid growing institutional demand and expectations of a more favorable White House attitude toward the crypto industry.
In the last week of January, the crypto market went into risk-off mode: Bitcoin failed to hold above the psychological $90,000 level and fell to $81,000 at the peak of the decline, after which it partially rebounded.
According to Amberdata estimates, at the beginning of the week, BTC was trading at around $88,300 and ETH at around $2,920. The key support for Bitcoin at that time was the $86,000 range, with resistance at $90,000. By the end of the week, according to Binance, BTC was around $82,400 with a 24-hour range of approximately $80,600-86,400, and the total market capitalization was around $2.98 trillion.
The main trigger was the rapid liquidation of “overheated” positions amid increased volatility and macro factors. CoinDesk noted that the sell-off was accompanied by an estimated $7 billion in forced position closures and significant long liquidations, and took place on the eve of a large crypto options expiry ($8.4 billion).
A separate negative signal is the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: on certain days of the week, there were noticeable net outflows, and on January 29, according to Trading Economics, one of the largest daily outflows of about $0.6 billion was recorded.
Finally, expectations regarding interest rates and the rhetoric of central banks reinforced the background: the market once again became sensitive to bond yields and the dollar, which usually hits high-risk assets.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260130/pidsumki-tizhnya-dlya-kriptorinku-analiz-fixygen.html
