According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is closing out the last week of August near local highs: Bitcoin is holding steady at around $80,000 after rising above $81,000, investors are once again actively investing in spot ETFs, and the stablecoin sector continues to evolve from a primarily trading instrument into a full-fledged payment infrastructure.
On August 25, Bitcoin rose to $81,240, its highest level since mid-May. By the morning of Friday, August 28, the leading cryptocurrency had corrected to approximately $79,700; however, for the month of August, it remains up by about 26.7%, which could be its best monthly performance since the end of 2024.
Unlike many previous waves of growth, one of the key factors now is not so much speculative demand as it is investors’ concerns about U.S. government debt, the long-term value of the dollar, and the situation in the Treasury bond market.
Following the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to increase the repurchase of long-term Treasury bonds, market participants have once again begun discussing the so-called “debasement trade”—the purchase of gold, Bitcoin, and other scarce assets as a hedge against potential currency devaluation.
Standard Chartered noted that such a policy creates precisely the macroeconomic environment for which Bitcoin was originally created. Some analysts suggest that a sustained break above the current resistance zone could pave the way to $95,000–100,000.
That said, this week was significantly calmer than the previous one. By last Friday, Bitcoin had already surged to around $77,000–78,000, posting its best weekly performance in over two years. This week, the market focused more on consolidating this gain than on launching a new upward surge.
Ether also remained relatively stable and was trading near $2,500 by the end of the week. Thus, Ethereum did not replicate the scale of Bitcoin’s August rally but continued its recovery following a weaker first half of the year.
One of the most important signals for the market was the return of funds to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to market participants’ estimates, inflows into these funds in August approached $2.4–2.5 billion, with investors directing approximately $2.5 billion into ETFs over the last seven trading sessions.
BlackRock, the largest operator of Bitcoin ETFs, believes that institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin not only as a high-risk technology asset but also as a potential diversification tool amid debt and currency risks. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest U.S. fund, already manages over $76 billion in assets.
This is particularly important for the market following a prolonged period of capital outflows from ETFs earlier this year. The return of institutional demand significantly increases the likelihood that August’s growth will prove more sustainable than the short-lived speculative rallies of previous months.
Another significant trend of the week is the accelerating development of stablecoins.
The volume of payments made using cards pegged to stablecoins exceeded $1 billion for the first time in July. RedotPay forecasts that by 2028, the annual volume of such payments could increase approximately fourfold—to $50 billion.
Stablecoins are being used more and more actively not only within crypto exchanges but also for cross-border transfers, corporate settlements, holding dollar liquidity, and everyday payments. This market is growing particularly rapidly in Latin America and Africa, where access to dollar-denominated banking instruments is limited.
This week, another signal came from the United Kingdom: the government proposed expanding the Bank of England’s mandate to include supporting innovation in the payments sector, particularly innovations related to stablecoins and digital currencies.
Another telling development was Chelsea Football Club’s decision to make Circle—the issuer of USDC—the title sponsor of its jerseys. The logo of one of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoins will now appear on the jerseys of the English Premier League club—a level of mainstream integration that would have seemed nearly impossible for the crypto industry just a few years ago.
Consolidation is also continuing in the industry’s institutional segment.
Crypto custodian BitGo has agreed to acquire NYDIG’s institutional trading business. With this acquisition, BitGo will gain a presence in derivatives, structured products, financing, and other services for institutional clients. Approximately 30 NYDIG employees are moving to BitGo. The parties did not disclose the value of the deal.
BitGo previously went public in 2026 and raised approximately $213 million during its IPO. The acquisition of part of NYDIG signals the continued emergence in the crypto market of companies seeking to provide institutional investors with a full range of services—from asset custody to trading, settlement, and structured financing.
Regulation in the U.S., however, remains one of the main sources of uncertainty.
President Donald Trump continues to urge Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which is intended to more clearly delineate the powers of regulators and establish rules for the operation of the cryptocurrency market. The legislative process remains protracted, but the industry is already actively preparing for the midterm congressional elections.
Stand With Crypto, an organization supported by Coinbase, announced this week its endorsement of 32 candidates who have previously voted in favor of cryptocurrency legislation. According to Reuters estimates, the crypto industry as a whole has already allocated approximately $200 million to political activities as part of the 2026 election cycle.
Thus, the last week of August cemented several trends at once: Bitcoin once again reached a level of around $80,000, institutional capital returned to ETFs, stablecoins are increasingly being used for real-world payments, and the largest crypto companies continue to build infrastructure that increasingly resembles the traditional financial sector.
The main risk for the market in the coming weeks remains macroeconomic. Investors are awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Persistently high inflation has already reignited market expectations of a potential rate hike in the U.S., which is traditionally a negative factor for cryptocurrencies.
In September, attention will focus on the Fed meeting on September 16, U.S. labor market data, and trends in U.S. Treasury yields. Provided the dollar remains weak and demand for alternative assets stays high, the $80,000–83,000 range for Bitcoin will become a key technical threshold. A sustained breakout above this level could reignite market talk of $100,000, while rising yields and a hawkish stance from the Fed could push Bitcoin back into the mid-$70,000 range
Fixygen will continue to monitor the dynamics and trends of the crypto market.
According to Fixygen, Bitcoin returned above the $80,000 mark in late August, posting one of its strongest weekly rallies in recent months, however, the current movement differs from typical cryptocurrency rallies—a significant portion of the demand is coming through regulated exchange-traded funds, and the U.S. government bond market has become one of the key macroeconomic factors.
On Tuesday, August 25, Bitcoin rose above $80,000 and reached a three-month high. According to Reuters, the leading cryptocurrency has gained about 28% since the beginning of August, which could be its best monthly performance since November 2024.
One of the triggers for the rally was action taken by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. On August 19, the Treasury announced that, starting September 9, it would increase the volume of buyback operations for long-term Treasury bonds to support market liquidity. The decline in yields on long-term securities and the simultaneous weakening of the dollar boosted demand for alternative assets, primarily gold and Bitcoin.
But unlike previous cryptocurrency cycles, this demand is now clearly visible within the traditional financial system.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from a series of outflows to a steady inflow of capital. According to Farside Investors, the funds saw net inflows of $297.5 million on August 17, $189.3 million on August 18, $517.2 million on August 19, $606.3 million on August 20, and $307.5 million on August 21.
After the weekend, the trend continued: on August 24, the funds attracted another $337.6 million, and on August 25, $314.3 million. Thus, over seven consecutive trading days, net inflows totaled approximately $2.57 billion.
The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust remains the primary recipient of these funds. On August 20 alone, the IBIT received approximately $503 million; on August 24, $208.9 million; and on August 25, another $284.4 million. According to Farside data, the fund’s cumulative net inflow since its launch has already exceeded $62.9 billion.
This strong momentum was further amplified by the closing of short positions. The market was approaching an August reversal after a prolonged decline from the 2025 all-time highs, so a significant portion of traders were bracing for a further drop. The sharp rally forced participants to close out short positions, which added mechanical demand for Bitcoin.
As a result, Bitcoin rose by approximately 23% over the week, while Ethereum gained nearly 29%. After reaching the $80,000 mark, Bitcoin pulled back to the $78,000–$79,000 range, indicating profit-taking following the rapid rally.
In our view, the most interesting development is not the $80,000 mark itself, but the nature of the current demand.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin rose primarily on expectations within the cryptocurrency market itself. Now, it is increasingly becoming part of the same macroeconomic narrative as gold: investors are buying assets whose supply cannot be increased by a decision from a central bank or government.
The difference lies in volatility. While gold remains a conservative safe-haven asset, Bitcoin is effectively becoming a high-risk, highly volatile bet on the weakening of the dollar’s purchasing power.
At the same time, ETFs have made this strategy much more accessible to institutional investors. To increase their exposure to Bitcoin, a fund or asset management firm no longer needs to deal with crypto exchanges or store digital assets on its own—it’s enough to purchase an exchange-traded instrument from BlackRock, Fidelity, or another major asset manager.
That is why capital flows into ETFs are becoming one of the most important indicators of the market’s future direction. If the inflow of several hundred million dollars per day continues, it could provide Bitcoin with fundamental demand even after the short squeeze ends.
If, however, ETFs return to outflows, the current movement risks turning out to be primarily a rapid recovery rally following a sharp decline.
Thus, the near future will show whether Bitcoin has established itself in a new role—not merely as a speculative cryptocurrency, but as an institutional instrument for betting on the dollar, liquidity, and U.S. monetary policy.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of August 17–23 with a sharp rally: Bitcoin rose by approximately 23%, Ethereum by more than 30%, and a number of major altcoins showed even stronger gains. The main drivers were an influx of funds into U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETFs, a weaker dollar, shifts in the U.S. Treasury market, and positive regulatory signals from Washington.
As of August 23, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,200, compared to about $62,900 at the end of the previous week. On August 21, the price rose to $79,300, marking a three-month high. Thus, BTC posted its best weekly performance in more than two years.
Ethereum rose even faster. ETH climbed from approximately $1,880 to $2,460—an increase of more than 30%. On August 19 alone, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization gained about 17.5%, and on August 21, it rose another 8%.
The rally also spread to altcoins. XRP rose by about 40% or more over the course of the week, Solana by more than 20%, and Chainlink, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, and a number of other major digital assets also showed significant gains. Thus, this time the growth was not limited to Bitcoin alone.
One of the main factors was a sharp reversal in inflows into U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs. Over the five trading sessions from August 17–21, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. attracted a combined total of about $2.6 billion, marking their best weekly performance since October 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs accounted for about $1.92 billion, while Ethereum ETFs accounted for about $697 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin funds recorded net inflows for all five consecutive trading days. Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week exceeded $22 billion, more than tripling the previous week’s figure.
The market received an additional boost on August 19 following the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to increase the volume of long-term Treasury bond buybacks. This led to a decline in yields on some government securities and a weakening of the dollar, prompting investors to step up purchases of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets.
According to Reuters, by the end of the week, the dollar had fallen to a three-month low against the euro, which also created a favorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies. During this period, some investors viewed Bitcoin, alongside gold, as part of the so-called “debasement trade”—betting on assets with limited supply amid concerns over U.S. debt and fiscal policy.
The closing of large short positions was also a key factor. Bitcoin’s rapid surge past the $65,000, $70,000, and $75,000 levels forced traders who had bet on a further decline to close their positions en masse. According to various estimates, during the most active phase of the rally, more than $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, which further accelerated the rally.
The regulatory backdrop in the U.S. also proved positive for the sector. On August 18, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new specialized framework for certain cryptoasset transactions and offerings. The SEC notes that the goal of the changes is to adapt the rules to the unique characteristics of digital assets, facilitate capital raising, and at the same time maintain investor protection requirements.
Thus, several favorable factors converged on the market simultaneously over the course of a single week: strong institutional demand driven by ETFs, a weaker dollar, improved liquidity expectations, and a reduction in regulatory uncertainty.
At the same time, the weekend showed that after such rapid growth, investors began to partially lock in profits. After peaking above $79,000, Bitcoin returned to the $76,000–$77,000 range, while Ethereum, after surpassing $2,500, traded around $2,400–$2,500. For now, this looks more like consolidation following a sharp rally than a full-fledged trend reversal.
U.S. monetary policy will be a key test for cryptocurrencies as early as next week. An economic symposium will take place in Jackson Hole on August 27–29, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak on August 28. The market will be closely watching his assessment of inflation, interest rates, and the situation in the bond market.
For Bitcoin, the immediate key resistance zone remains the $79,000–$80,000 range. Holding above this level could pave the way for a continued recovery following the drop from record highs in 2025. At the same time, after a gain of more than 20% in a single week, the risk of a short-term correction remains high.
For Ethereum, the key will be holding the $2,300–2,400 range and continued inflows into spot ETH ETFs. It is the resilience of institutional demand following the best week for ETFs in 2026 that will determine whether the current rally will evolve into a longer-term uptrend.
Fixygen will continue to monitor inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, Fed policy, the dollar’s performance, and Bitcoin’s behavior near the $80,000 level, all of which could determine the market’s direction in late August.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw its price surge sharply on Wednesday evening, rising to $69,700, gaining around $4,000 in a short space of time and reaching its highest level in roughly two months, according to the Fixygen website.
After reaching its intraday high, the leading cryptocurrency corrected to around $68,500–$68,700 but remained up about 6% over 24 hours. The intraday low was around $64,100.
The sharp move began after the US Department of the Treasury announced that it would at least double the volume of buyback operations involving long-term US government bonds, to $4 billion or more per transaction.
Following the news, the yield on 30-year US Treasuries fell by around 8 basis points to 5.20%, with a similar decline observed in 10-year securities. At the same time, the US dollar began to weaken, while demand for risk and safe-haven assets increased.
Initially, following the Treasury’s announcement, bitcoin rose to around $64,900, then broke above $65,000, after which the rally sharply accelerated. At its peak, the price reached $69,700.
The surge triggered large-scale liquidations of short positions in the cryptocurrency market. According to CoinGlass data cited by CoinDesk, approximately $1.3 billion worth of cryptocurrency derivatives positions were liquidated in just one hour, between 14:50 and 15:50 UTC, with more than half of the total involving bitcoin trading pairs. Ethereum liquidations amounted to around $430 million.
The gains spread across virtually the entire major cryptocurrency market. Ethereum rose by around 9%, XRP by more than 6%, and Solana by around 6%.
BTC’s technical movement provided an additional factor. Before the current surge, analysts had noted the formation of an “inverse head and shoulders” pattern on the daily chart. According to technical analyst Aksel Kibar, a sustained breakout above the area around $66,600 could open the way for a move toward $76,000.
At the same time, the rapid pace of the current rally increases the likelihood of short-term volatility: a significant part of the move was amplified by the forced closure of short positions, and after reaching $69,700, bitcoin had already retreated by more than $1,000.
Bitcoin is the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Its supply is algorithmically limited to 21 million coins, with around 20 million BTC currently in circulation. Cryptocurrency prices are characterized by heightened volatility and can change significantly within a short period.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended last week mostly on an uptrend: Bitcoin rebounded from its early August decline and once again tested the $65,000 mark, while Ethereum and most of the major altcoins also gained ground. The exception among the leading cryptocurrencies was XRP, which lost about 5% over the week.
As of the morning of August 10, Bitcoin was trading at around $65,200 and had risen by approximately 3.7% over the past seven days, according to CoinDesk data. On Monday, the price fell back below $65,000—to around $64,500–$64,700. As of August 7, BTC was up 3.1% for the week, heading toward its first weekly gain in three weeks.
Ethereum was trading around $1,900 at the start of the new week and also ended the week with gains. BNB and Solana were in positive territory, while XRP lagged behind the broader market recovery and lost about 5%.
One of the main supporting factors was the return of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $853.54 million in net inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly result since mid-April. A significant portion of the funds went to BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
The combined net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for the week is estimated at approximately $1.1 billion. Back in early August, the situation was the opposite: Bitcoin ETFs had ended the previous week with a small net outflow, so the return of major buyers became one of the key shifts in the market landscape.
U.S. macroeconomic data provided additional support for cryptocurrencies. Weak U.S. labor market data eased concerns about a possible further increase in the Fed’s interest rates and bolstered demand for risky assets. Following the release of the data, Bitcoin rose to $65,000, while U.S. stock indices finished the week on a strong note.
However, it is still too early to speak of a full-fledged return to a sustained bullish trend. Bitcoin remains near the $62,000–$65,000 range, where it has spent much of the past few weeks. Analysts note that a sustained market recovery would require a break above the $65,000 level.
Another sign of caution is the extremely low realized volatility. Last Saturday, BTC’s trading range was only about $350—the narrowest Saturday range since November 2023. At the same time, the options market continues to see elevated demand for downside protection around the $62,000–$63,000 range, indicating ongoing concerns among market participants.
News of the sale of bitcoins by Strategy, the largest corporate holder, also acted as a restraining factor. The company reported on August 10 that it had sold 1,690 BTC for approximately $108.6 million the previous week, using the proceeds, in part, to repurchase preferred shares. Its holdings have decreased to 840,447 BTC.
Regulatory factors, on the other hand, are likely to take a back seat by the end of August. The U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act before Congress’s August recess began. Lawmakers are not expected to resume consideration of comprehensive regulations for the digital asset market until at least mid-September.
What Will Drive the Market Through the End of August
The first major test will be U.S. inflation data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled for release on August 12, the Producer Price Index on August 13, and retail sales data on August 14. Following weak employment data, inflation figures could shape expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy and, consequently, the direction of Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The next key date will be August 19, when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Investors will be looking for additional signals in the minutes regarding the extent to which the central bank is concerned about the combination of rising inflation and a softening labor market.
The last week of August will be even more eventful. On August 26, the U.S. will simultaneously release the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July statistics on personal income and spending, including the PCE price index—one of the Fed’s key inflation benchmarks.
From August 27 to 29, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole. In 2026, the symposium’s theme is directly related to financial markets: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Therefore, statements by central bank leaders may be of particular significance for the cryptocurrency sector as well.
Two main scenarios can be identified for the market through the end of August. Assuming continued capital inflows into ETFs, more moderate inflation in the U.S., and sustained expectations of a neutral or more dovish Fed policy, Bitcoin will have the opportunity to consolidate above $65,000 and attempt to return to July’s levels above $66,000. This is a conclusion based on the current market structure, not a guaranteed price forecast.
The negative scenario is primarily linked to an unexpected acceleration of inflation in the U.S., rising bond yields, and a renewed escalation of geopolitical risks surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, market attention will shift back to the $62,000–$63,000 range, where options traders are currently actively hedging against a decline.
Thus, the crypto market is entering the second half of August in a stronger position than at the beginning of the month: institutional inflows have resumed, Bitcoin has recouped a significant portion of its recent losses, and most of the largest altcoins have turned bullish. However, low volatility and the concentration of several key macroeconomic events in the second half of the month set the stage for a noticeable increase in price fluctuations by the end of August.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of July 27–August 1 mostly lower amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, volatile inflows into exchange-traded funds, and weak earnings reports from Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange.
As of August 1, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,000, down from approximately $65,300 at the start of the week. Thus, the leading cryptocurrency lost about 3.6%.
Ethereum rose to nearly $1,950 at the start of the week but then also came under pressure. Most of the major altcoins were unable to sustain a steady upward trend, as investors preferred to reduce their positions in riskier assets. Solana largely remained within the $70–76 range throughout the week.
The main macroeconomic event of the week was the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. At the same time, the regulator noted that inflation remains above the 2% target, particularly due to rising energy prices and other consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. An additional hawkish signal came from the fact that three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points.
For cryptocurrencies, this means that expensive dollar liquidity will persist. With high interest rates, investors receive attractive yields on government bonds and money market instruments, which limits the inflow of capital into Bitcoin and altcoins.
The market had been hoping for at least some softer rhetoric from the Fed, so the lack of a signal regarding an imminent rate cut was one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s decline in the second half of the week.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with a combined net outflow of about $61.5 million. On Monday and Tuesday, investors withdrew $11.6 million and $49.7 million, respectively. On Wednesday, the funds recorded an inflow of $32.1 million, and on Thursday, $233.1 million. However, on Friday, $265.4 million was withdrawn again. This pattern indicates that there is no sustained institutional demand yet. Positive inflows last for one or two days, after which they are followed by comparable or even larger outflows.
Friday’s outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT fund was particularly notable at $122.7 million. $54.8 million was withdrawn from Fidelity’s FBTC, and $52.6 million from Grayscale’s GBTC.
Until Bitcoin ETFs return to a steady inflow of funds, a price recovery above the nearest resistance levels will be difficult.
Coinbase’s financial results put additional pressure on the market. The largest public crypto exchange in the U.S. reported its third consecutive quarterly loss. Following the release of the report, Coinbase’s stock price fell, and analysts noted challenging conditions for cryptocurrency trading and a lack of clarity regarding the timeline for a recovery in trading volumes.
Declining activity among retail investors is one of the main risks for the market. Despite Coinbase’s share of cryptocurrency trading rising to 10.3%, overall market volumes remain weak.
At the same time, the company continues to reduce its reliance on spot trading fees and is expanding its business in stablecoins, derivatives, digital asset custody, and blockchain infrastructure. However, this is more of a long-term positive factor and does not yet offset the decline in speculative activity.
One of the week’s trends was investors’ continued tendency to focus on the largest and most liquid digital assets. When macroeconomic risks intensify, capital typically flows out of smaller tokens faster than out of Bitcoin. As a result, altcoins may decline even if the price of Bitcoin remains relatively stable.
Ethereum maintains fundamental support thanks to the network’s use in decentralized finance, asset tokenization, and infrastructure projects. However, for a sustainable recovery, it needs a rebound in demand across the entire crypto market and stabilization of Bitcoin.
Solana and other highly volatile assets may experience short-term spikes, but without an increase in liquidity, such movements are likely to remain unsustainable.
The base case scenario for early August remains Bitcoin’s consolidation within the $60,000–$66,000 range. The nearest support zone is the $62,000–$63,000 range. However, $60,000 remains the key psychological and technical threshold. A resurgence of geopolitical tensions or continued outflows from ETFs could lead to a retest of this level.
A sustained move below $60,000 would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the $55,000–58,000 range. For this scenario to play out, a combination of several negative factors would be required: a further strengthening of the dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, significant outflows from ETFs, and a deterioration in stock markets.
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it must return above the $64,700–$66,000 range. In this case, the next targets could be $68,000 and $70,000.
A positive scenario is possible provided there is a return of steady capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the release of weak U.S. economic data, which would reinforce expectations of future Fed policy easing.
If the market stabilizes, Ethereum may attempt to climb back above $1,900. However, should Bitcoin fall to $60,000, pressure on Ethereum and most altcoins will intensify.
Thus, in early August, the market will most likely remain volatile and dependent primarily on inflows into U.S. ETFs, U.S. macroeconomic data, and the situation in the Middle East. There is no clear signal yet that the correction has ended, but Bitcoin holding the $60,000 level will support the possibility of a further recovery.
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009. Ethereum is the second-largest digital currency and serves as the underlying asset for the Ethereum smart contract network.
