According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of September 14–18 with a moderate rebound following sharp volatility: Bitcoin has returned to around $78,000, Ethereum is holding above $2,500, although U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 18, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,100, Ethereum at $2,510, BNB at around $750, and XRP at around $1.33. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.77 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $93 billion. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has risen by about 1%, Ethereum by 1.2%, BNB by more than 5%, and XRP by approximately 1.5%.
The start of the week was significantly more volatile. On September 14, Bitcoin was trading around $78,200, but by September 15, it had fallen to approximately $75,600. The next day, prices remained near $76,100, after which the market began to recover through Friday.
One of the main factors putting pressure on the market was the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—to 3.75–4%. The U.S. central bank attributed the decision to persistently high inflation. This marked the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
An additional source of uncertainty for the crypto industry was the U.S. Senate vote on H.R. 3633, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market and delineate the respective authorities of the SEC and the CFTC. On September 15, a procedural vote to move the bill to the floor ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, while three-fifths of the Senate’s votes were required for passage.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs remained negative for most of the week. According to Farside Investors, over the four trading sessions from September 14–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $427 million. Following an inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and $295.9 million on Wednesday. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with a net inflow of $159.5 million. Data for Friday had not yet been compiled at the time this review was prepared.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs was even weaker. Over the same period, net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum funds totaled approximately $284 million. On Monday, the funds attracted $121.1 million, but over the next three trading sessions, they lost $142 million, $224.1 million, and $39.3 million, respectively.
At the same time, at the end of the week, the crypto industry received a positive regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On September 17, the SEC introduced the so-called Innovation Exemption—a temporary five-year regime that, under certain conditions, allows for the trading of tokenized shares of U.S. companies via blockchain infrastructure and permissioned AMM pools. The SEC emphasized that tokenized shares must grant holders the same rights as the corresponding traditional securities.
The news boosted companies involved in digital assets and was one of the factors behind the recovery in market sentiment at the end of the week. In Friday’s trading, Coinbase shares rose by more than 3%, Strategy by about 4%, and Robinhood by 3.5%, while Bitcoin climbed back to the $78,000 range.
At the same time, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5% this week, and the price of Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and risks to energy supplies. High oil prices exacerbate inflationary risks and may support a tighter monetary policy by central banks, which traditionally curbs demand for crypto assets.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the resilience of the largest cryptocurrencies in the face of a simultaneous deterioration in the monetary and regulatory environment. Bitcoin closed the previous week near $77,100 and, as of September 18, is trading above $78,000, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization rose from approximately $2.73 trillion to $2.77 trillion.
At the same time, negative outflows from ETFs indicate that the recovery has not yet been accompanied by a steady return of large institutional capital. Next week, the market will continue to be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s next moves, trends in U.S. bonds and oil, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the future of legislation governing the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
According to Fixygen, the strategies of the largest public companies that have built up cryptocurrency reserves began to diverge significantly in September.
Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has not purchased any BTC for the second week in a row. Instead, the company allocated approximately $139.3 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares.
As of September 13, Strategy held approximately 845.05 thousand BTC, purchased for a total of $63.73 billion. The average purchase price was about $75.4 thousand per Bitcoin.
In other words, the company temporarily redirected part of its free liquidity from Bitcoin accumulation toward managing its own capital structure.
For Strategy, the STRC buyback makes economic sense, as it allows the company to reduce future dividend obligations if the securities trade below their par value of $100. The company announced back in the summer that it intends to regularly repurchase STRC at a significant discount.
BitMine Immersion Technologies is pursuing a completely opposite strategy.
On September 14, the company reported that it had increased its reserves to 5.96 million ETH, which corresponds to approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply of 122 million tokens.
Over the course of the week, BitMine acquired an additional 27,000 ETH, bringing it closer to its goal of holding 5% of Ethereum’s supply.
The company estimates the total value of its crypto assets and cash reserves at approximately $15.8 billion.
The difference between the two models is becoming increasingly apparent. Strategy is effectively building a financial company centered on Bitcoin and managing a complex system of common stock, preferred securities, and debt capital.
BitMine, on the other hand, is trying to accumulate Ethereum as quickly as possible while simultaneously capitalizing on the opportunity to generate income from staking.
This divergence points to the next stage in the development of companies managing digital assets: the market is beginning to evaluate not only the quantity of accumulated coins, but also the method of financing, the cost of capital, the return on assets, and the risk of dilution for shareholders.
According to Fixygen, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price swings on individual trading days.
An analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most important factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders. This metric better explains changes in volatility than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the market size that matters, but also the structure of BTC holders.
Bitcoin, which previously circulated largely among speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This may reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and decrease the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more sustained bull market.
At the same time, the high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial situation of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market in the event of further price increases, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is, for now, more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If an increasing portion of the supply remains held by ETFs, corporations, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin.
According to Fixygen, there are still no signs of a broad shift of capital from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, despite periodic rallies in individual tokens and Ethereum’s strengthening.
According to CoinMarketCap data as of September 12, 2026, the Altcoin Season Index stands at about 40 points out of 100, which is significantly below the 75-point threshold at which the market is considered to have entered a full-fledged altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at about 58.7%, while Ethereum’s is 11.6%.
CoinMarketCap defines altseason as a period when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and certain asset-backed tokens—have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
BlockchainCenter’s alternative index also does not yet indicate an altseason: its value stands at around 33 points, while the required threshold is 75.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.76 trillion. Bitcoin remains the largest asset with a market cap of about $1.55 trillion.
Bitcoin’s high market share indicates that a significant portion of new capital continues to be concentrated in the largest and most liquid crypto asset. This trend is driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate BTC purchases, and investor caution regarding less liquid tokens.
However, this situation differs from the classic cryptocurrency cycles of previous years, when, following strong growth in Bitcoin, capital would sequentially flow first into Ethereum, then into major altcoins, and finally into more speculative assets with smaller market capitalizations.
Certain altcoins have periodically outperformed Bitcoin significantly in the current cycle as well; however, so far these have been isolated instances rather than broad-based growth across the entire segment.
Ethereum has strengthened its position in recent months: its market share has grown from about 9% three months ago to around 11%, but this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale rotation of capital away from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining profitability rebounded significantly in August 2026 thanks to a sharp rise in the price of the largest cryptocurrency, but the industry’s economics remain substantially weaker than last year’s levels, according to Fixygen.
According to the monthly Luxor Hashrate Index report published on September 8, the dollar-denominated hashprice—the estimated miner’s revenue per unit of computing power—started August at $31.63 per PH/s per day and ended the month at $39.33, an increase of 24.4%.
This marked the strongest monthly growth in the metric since November 2024. On August 27, the hashprice temporarily rose above $40 for the first time in 220 days.
Bitcoin was the main driver behind the improvement in mining economics. In August, its price rose from $62,889 to $78,312, an increase of 24.5%. The average BTC price for the month increased by 8.7% to $69,263.
The average hashprice for August was $34.63, compared to $31.21 in July, an increase of 10.9%.
However, even after this recovery, profitability remains significantly lower than last year’s levels. The average August hashprice was approximately 32% lower than the 2025 average of $50.68 per PH/s per day.
Relatively stable network difficulty provided additional support to miners. In August, two adjustments nearly offset each other, and the net change amounted to approximately minus 0.34%. The average difficulty was 2% lower than in July.
However, as early as September 5, network difficulty rose by 1.31% as some of the computing power that had previously been taken offline began returning to the network. Luxor notes that mining activity is recovering following the hashrate decline in June and July.
The increase in computing power could once again put pressure on profitability. The more equipment competes for a fixed block reward, the smaller the share of revenue per unit of hashrate.
The situation also remains challenging for less efficient equipment. According to Luxor’s estimates, devices with energy efficiency of 25–38 J/TH generated an average energy yield of about $45 per MWh in August, while the average grid electricity cost was about $48 per MWh. This means that some older equipment remains at or below the break-even point.
As a result, August provided miners with a noticeable respite, but the sustainability of the recovery will depend on three factors at once: Bitcoin prices, network difficulty, and the cost of electricity.
According to Fixygen, the German Ministry of Finance has drafted a proposal to reform the taxation of crypto assets, which would introduce a 25% tax rate on profits from the sale of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, regardless of the length of time the asset was held.
The corresponding draft bill is in the early stages of approval within the federal government, Handelsblatt reported on September 9, citing a document obtained by the publication. Germany currently remains one of the most attractive major European jurisdictions for long-term private investors in cryptocurrencies. Under current rules, profits from the sale of crypto assets held for more than one year are generally not subject to income tax. If an asset is sold within 12 months of purchase, the profit is classified as a private sale of property and taxed at the taxpayer’s individual rate. This procedure was confirmed by official clarifications from the German Ministry of Finance on March 6, 2025.
The new model is expected to fundamentally change this approach. It is proposed to reclassify crypto assets from the category of private property transactions to the category of capital gains and tax them similarly to profits from stock transactions. The base rate of the Abgeltungsteuer will be 25%. Taking into account the solidarity surcharge, the effective tax rate could reach 26.375%, excluding any potential church tax.
The proposed rules would apply only to cryptocurrency acquired after December 31, 2026. For Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets purchased earlier, the current tax regime is expected to remain in place.
The bill calls for the new rules to take effect on January 1, 2027. However, automatic tax withholding by German cryptocurrency service providers is planned to be introduced only on January 1, 2028, to give platforms time to restructure their accounting systems.
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the rule change will generate approximately EUR 160 million in additional tax revenue for the budget in 2028. In subsequent years, the amount is expected to increase and, according to the ministry’s calculations, reach approximately EUR 350 million in 2030.
The reform will effectively eliminate the main tax advantage of long-term cryptocurrency ownership in Germany. It will no longer be sufficient for an investor to hold Bitcoin or Ethereum for more than a year to fully exempt the profit from the sale from taxation.
However, a final decision has not yet been made. The Ministry of Finance’s draft is in the early stages of interagency coordination, after which the document must undergo further review by the government, the Bundestag, and the Bundesrat.
Separately, Germany is already increasing tax transparency for transactions involving digital assets. In November 2025, the Bundestag approved the implementation of the European DAC8 Directive, which requires crypto service providers to report information on certain customer transactions to tax authorities.
