UBS analysts predict a further increase in gold and silver prices in 2024 on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will move to lower interest rates.
“We expect the Fed’s policy easing to drive gold higher,” said precious metals analyst Johnny Teves, adding that a weaker dollar would also contribute to this.
He predicts that the price of gold will reach $2200 per ounce by the end of this year, CNBC reports.
As interest rates fall, gold becomes more attractive compared to alternative investments such as bonds. At the same time, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, which leads to an increase in demand.
Despite the fact that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS still expects the Federal Reserve to move to ease monetary policy.
The attractiveness of gold as a safe haven increased amid the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East last October. In January, prices reached a record $2100 per ounce.
“We think that investors will invest in gold in the face of great macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks,” Tevez said. The prospects for silver, the “poorer cousin,” are also optimistic, and it is likely to “really shine,” he said.
“We think that silver can succeed in the scenario of easing the QE,” the expert said. According to him, the rate of rise in the value of silver may outpace the growth of gold.
According to the Silver Institute, global demand for silver will increase by 1% in 2024 and reach 1.2 billion ounces. If the expectations are met, this will be the second highest figure in history.
“Increased industrial demand is the main catalyst for the growth of global demand for the metal,” the industry association said in a statement.
Global silver supplies are expected to grow by 3% to 1.02 billion ounces, which could be the highest in eight years.
Quotes of gold futures contracts during trading on Friday are down 0.5% to $2021.6 per ounce. Silver is up 0.5% to $22.67 per ounce.
Gold prices are actively rising on Monday thanks to a weaker U.S. dollar and may end trading above $1900 an ounce for the first time since last April.
Quotes for February gold contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 0.9% to $1915.7 per troy ounce by 6:30 p.m. Ksk.
Silver for March delivery rose 1% to $24.25 an ounce.
The ICE-calculated index showing the U.S. dollar’s performance against six major world currencies rose slightly Friday, but the day before the indicator fell 1 percent after data showed the December inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 6.5 percent from 7.1 percent in November.
“The inflation data confirmed that inflation is still declining, though still well above the 2% target,” wrote Kinesis Money market analyst Rupert Rawling. – The U.S. central bank will probably still raise rates at its meeting later this month, but the hike is likely to be only 25 basis points.”
However, he warned that there are concerns that gold has risen too much and may soon need a correction, so “investors should be cautious in trying to jump on that departing gold wagon.”
Prices of precious metals continue to decline on inflation data in the US and against the background of the strengthening of the US national currency, as a result, gold may end the first week of the last three in the red, MarketWatch reports.
Gold and silver “continue to trade in a strong inverse relationship with the strong dollar index,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.com. At the same time, market bulls are surprised that precious metals do not attract investors as a “safe harbor” in the face of increased geopolitical and market uncertainty, he said.
Quotes of December contracts for gold on the Comex during trading on Friday decreased by 1.3% – up to $1654.9 per troy ounce. Silver for December delivery fell 2.8% to $18.39 an ounce. Since the beginning of the week, the cost of these precious metals has fallen by 3.1% and 8.8%, respectively.
December palladium futures fell 3% on Friday to $2,053.5 an ounce.
Meanwhile, the DXY index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose by 0.7% to 113.14 points.
Consumer prices (CPI index) in the US in September rose by 8.2% compared to the same month last year, showed data published on Thursday by the country’s Ministry of Labor. Thus, inflation slowed down compared to 8.3% in August, but turned out to be higher than the 8.1% expected by analysts.
Meanwhile, consumer price growth before food and energy (Core CPI) accelerated to 6.6% year-on-year last month from 6.3% in August, renewing a record since 1982.
“Inflation data was terrible for the yellow metal as it cemented a 75 basis point Fed rate hike next month. And with inflation looking so unwavering, the Fed will likely have to go further than markets previously expected,” he said. Oanda Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam “This does not bode well for gold in the near term. Yesterday’s lows of around $1,640 an ounce could soon be tested again.”
Ukrainian canoeists Liudmyla Luzan and Anastasia Chetverikova took second place in pair canoeing among women’s duets at a distance of 500 meters at the Olympic Games in Tokyo, the National Olympic Committee of Ukraine has reported.
“An incredible start to the 15th day of competition at the Tokyo Olympic Games 2020! Ukrainian canoeists Liudmyla Luzan and Anastasia Chetverikova are Olympic silver medalists!”
This is the second medal for Luzan. She had previously won a bronze medal in single canoe rowing.
Ukraine has retained the zero quotas for exports of unprocessed gold and silver (apart from banking metals) and scrap precious metals and extended the licensing of exports of anthracite for 2020.
The Cabinet of Ministers approved resolution No. 1109 on December 24 and posted it on its website on December 27.
In addition, according to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, in 2020, exports and imports of the respective substances and goods will be licensed as previously.
