Benchmark crude oil prices continue to rise after a steady increase in the first quarter.
Market participants are looking forward to the meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee later this week.
Quotations for June futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:05 a.m. ET amounted to $87.25 per barrel, which is $0.25 (0.3%) higher than the level at the close of the previous trading. By this time, the price of May futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) had risen by $0.28 (0.3%) to $83.44 per barrel.
The NYMEX and ICE Futures were closed on Friday, March 29, due to Good Friday.
In March, Brent rose by 4.6% and WTI by 6.3%, with the rise recorded for the third month in a row. In the first quarter, prices rose by 13.6% and 16.1%, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market data.
Oil prices are falling on Wednesday on the back of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a significant increase in US stockpiles.
The cost of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:10 a.m. was $85.54 per barrel, which is $0.71 (0.82%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Tuesday, these contracts fell by $0.5 (0.6%) to $86.25 per barrel.
May futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.61 (0.75%) to $81.01 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.33 (0.4%) to $81.62 per barrel.
According to API estimates, US oil inventories increased by 9.337 million barrels in the week ended March 22, the highest increase since mid-February 2023.
Oil inventories at the Cushing terminal, where Nymex-traded crude is stored, increased by 2.4 million barrels, API reported.
Official data on energy reserves in the US will be released by the Department of Energy at 16:30 pm.
The oil market continues to monitor the geopolitical situation and awaits news from OPEC+.
The coalition states, which will hold a regular meeting on April 3, are likely to maintain the current production restrictions. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the OPEC+ countries do not yet see the need to change production volumes.
Benchmark crude oil prices are rising on Monday morning.
Despite a slight downward correction in trading on Friday, crude rose by about 4% last week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“The most turbulent part of the rally is still ahead,” said Alex Kupcikiewicz, senior market analyst at FxPro, as quoted by MarketWatch.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:00 a.m. was $85.64 per barrel, which is $0.3 (0.35%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.08 (0.1%) to $85.34 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the morning increased by $0.35 (0.43%) to $81.39 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts fell by $0.22 (0.3%) to $81.04 per barrel.
The market was boosted, in particular, by the news of a decline in US oil inventories for the first time in seven weeks.
Other factors contributing to the growth of quotations are the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and the extension of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries, experts say.
In addition, the International Energy Agency has raised its 2024 demand forecast by 200 thousand barrels per day to 103.2 million bpd. As a result, the IEA now expects the global market to face a deficit of about 300 thousand bpd this year instead of the previously expected small surplus if OPEC+ restrictions continue.
On Friday morning, oil prices for benchmark brands are being adjusted downward after rising to their highest levels since early November following the results of previous trading.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:00 a.m. was $85.23 per barrel, which is $0.19 (0.22%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.39 (1.7%) to $85.42 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the morning fell by $0.17 (0.21%) to $81.09 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts rose by $1.54 (1.9%) to $81.26 per barrel.
Since the beginning of the week, oil has risen in price by about 4% due to signs of high demand in the United States and bullish analysts’ forecasts for fuel consumption this year, Trading Economics writes.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its forecast for oil demand in 2024 by 200 thousand barrels per day to 103.2 million bpd. In particular, the estimate of oil consumption in the first quarter was improved by 400 thousand bpd to 102 million bpd, the forecast for the second and third quarters was increased by 200 thousand bpd to 103 and 104 million bpd, respectively.
The U.S. Department of Energy has sharply raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude oil for both 2024 and 2025 due to the extension of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries. According to a new report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024, the forecast for the price of Brent crude oil has been raised from $82.42/bbl to $87/bbl.
“As OPEC+ continues to cut oil production, we have lowered our 2024 global oil production growth forecast. The lower growth contributes to a significant reduction in global oil inventories in our forecast for the second quarter of 2024,” the report says.
The oil price forecast for 2025 has been raised from $79.48/bbl to $84.8/bbl.
Prices for benchmark crude oil are rising slightly on Tuesday morning, with quotes ending the previous session virtually unchanged.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 7:08 a.m. is $82.43 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.27%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts increased in price by 13 cents to $82.21 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.13 (0.17%) to $78.06 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by 8 cents to $77.93 per barrel.
Market participants are awaiting the release of inflation data in the United States on Tuesday, as well as the publication of monthly reports by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In addition, traders are monitoring the compliance of OPEC+ countries with their voluntary commitments to reduce supplies, as well as the level of production in the United States, which has been near record levels since the end of January.
“OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy are sending mixed signals, and in order for the market to clearly determine the direction of movement,” they need to come to the same conclusion, said Charu Chanana, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
