Business activity in the euro area at the end of 2025 grew weaker than expected amid a deepening recession in manufacturing and slower growth in the dominant services sector, according to preliminary data from the business activity index (PMI) prepared by HCOB and S&P Global.
According to the assessment, the HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI declined to 51.9 points in December from 52.8 points in November, falling to its lowest level in three months and below the forecast of analysts polled by Reuters. The value above 50 points still indicates an increase in business activity.
The situation in industry continues to drag the index down: the eurozone manufacturing PMI in December fell to 49.2 points, the lowest since April, reflecting the continued decline in output and a steeper new orders slump, the largest since February. Deepening weakness in German industry was cited as the main factor, while France showed cautious signs
In the services sector, business activity is still picking up but the pace is slowing, with the services PMI down to 52.6 points from 53.6 points in November. Meanwhile, companies continue to increase employment, but business optimism fell to its lowest level since May, indicating that businesses are cautious about the outlook for 2026.
According to a Reuters poll of analysts, rising cost pressures and output prices at the end of the year do not change the overall picture: inflation in the eurozone has moved closer to the 2% target on average, and the market in the baseline scenario expects the European Central Bank’s key rates to remain unchanged until at least 2027.
The indicator of business confidence in industry in Ukraine in February 2024 increased by 2 p.p. compared to January 2023 – up to “minus” 9%, while in the processing industry it increased by 3.6 p.p. – To “minus” 8.3%, reported the State Statistics Service.
In turn, the indicator of business climate in industry increased by 0.2 p.p., to +0.2%. – to +0.2%, while in the processing industry increased by 0.4 p.p. to 0.4%. – to 0.4%.
As reported, expectations for business activity prospects in 2023 began to deteriorate in May, when the business confidence indicator stood at “minus” 6.8% and “minus” 5% in industry and processing, respectively, and continued to decline during June-December, amounting to “minus” 13.5% and “minus” 15.6% in December, respectively.
However, in January this year, this indicator increased by 2.6 pp y-o-y to “minus” 11% in December-2023, while in the processing industry it increased by 3.9 pp y-o-y to “minus” 11.8%. – To “minus” 11.8%.
At the same time, the indicator of business climate in industry and processing industry in January, as well as in December-2023 remained at the zero level.
The components for calculations of these indicators have seasonally adjusted values of balances formed on the basis of reports submitted by enterprises. In particular, the assessment of the current volume of orders for production (demand) in industry in February amounted to “minus” 42% (in January – “minus” 44%), in processing industry – “minus” 45% (against “minus” 47%).
In turn, February expectations for output in the next three months improved significantly – in industry they rose to +5% from zero in January-2023, in processing – to +11% from “minus” 1%.
As reported, the best value in 2023 was reached in April-2023 at +10% in manufacturing and +17% in processing.
The estimate of current finished goods inventories in February was “minus” 10% and “minus” 9%, respectively (“minus” 11% and “minus” 12% in January); the estimate of output for the previous three months was “minus” 1% and +1% (“minus” 6% and “minus” 3% in January).
At the same time, the assessment of the current volume of export demand in industry worsened by 2 p.p. to “minus” 31%, and in processing industry remained at the level of “minus” 38%.
According to the statistical agency, the supply of orders of enterprises, still, on average, for four months.
As detailed by the State Statistics Committee, based on the results of the survey of industrial enterprises in February, the growth of selling prices for products in the next three months (February-April) is expected by 31% of surveyed industrial enterprises compared to 33% in January, while the decrease – still 2%; in the processing industry, respectively, 35% and 2%.
At the same time, 25% of industrial enterprises expect in February-April 2024 a decrease in the volume of manufactured products (20% in January), and 20%, as a month earlier, expect growth.
In the processing industry, 28% of respondents expect production growth (8 p.p. more), while 17% of respondents expect a decrease (20% in January).
In the next three months, 17% of the surveyed industrial enterprises expect a decrease in the number of employees, 7% – growth, whereas in January this indicator amounted to 16% and 6%, respectively.
For the previous three months (November 2023-January 2024), 23% of the industrial enterprises noted an increase in production volumes, while a decrease – 31% (in January, respectively, 28% and 29%), and the current volume of production orders (demand) above normal was noted by only 1%, while 39% – below normal and 60% – normal for the season.
The main factor restraining the production is still insufficient demand – its growth in November-January was noted by 19% of industrial enterprises (in processing – 18%), while the decrease was noted by 30% and 32%, respectively.
The Business Activity Outlook Index (BAOI) with a BAOI reading above the neutral level of 50 implying a positive business outlook and below the neutral level implying a negative business outlook compared with the previous month grew by 2.1 points in September, to 56.6, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said on Wednesday. “In September, all sectors approved the results of economic activity. Enterprises also expected growth in new orders, cost of contractor services and purchase prices. Companies that provide services were optimistic,” the NBU said in the study.
According to the results of the survey in September, the companies that provide services and industrial enterprises are the most optimistic, for which the index was 57.3 and 58.1 respectively.
According to the report, the largest increase in BAOI was seen in the construction sector – by 7.6 points (to 56.2), thanks to a significant increase in the optimistic expectations of enterprises regarding product prices, the emergence of expectations about the volume of purchases of raw materials and optimistic attitude about the increase in the number of employees in the field.
Along with the general increase in BAOI, the indicator fell by 1 point (to 54.5) in the field of trade. According to the results of the study, despite high estimates of trade turnover, expectations about the goods stocks remain pessimistic.
