U.S. President Donald Trump again stated that Canada could eventually become the 51st U.S. state, linking this to trade relations between the two countries.
He made this statement on October 14 during a campaign rally in Bullhead City, Arizona.
“Eventually, they’ll become the 51st state, because that’s the only way it works. We don’t need them, but they need us. And why should we lose $80 billion, $90 billion, $100 billion a year to support a country that isn’t part of us?” Trump said.
Prior to this, the U.S. president accused Canada of pursuing a harsh tariff policy and stated that Canadian automakers are moving production to the U.S. to avoid American tariffs. After mentioning the possibility of making Canada the 51st state, Trump also drew a parallel with Greenland.
However, the $80–100 billion figure he cited does not correspond to official data on the trade balance between the two countries. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, in 2025, the U.S. trade deficit in goods with Canada stood at $48.3 billion. At the same time, the U.S. had a trade surplus in services with Canada of $27.7 billion. Total trade in goods and services between the two countries was estimated at $872.3 billion.
Trump repeatedly returned to the idea of making Canada a U.S. state after his return to the White House. In May 2025, during a meeting in Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated outright that the country was “not for sale” and would never be sold. In response, Trump said at the time, “Never say never.”
The U.S. remains Canada’s main trading partner. According to the USTR, more than three-quarters of Canadian merchandise exports go to the U.S. market, while nearly half of Canada’s imports come from the U.S. The economies of the two countries are particularly closely linked in the automotive industry, the energy sector, and cross-border supply chains.
Canada has the highest balance of positive and negative attitudes among Ukrainians—not only among the countries represented in the Americas and Australia, but also among all countries covered by the study: in August 2026, it stood at 73.8 percentage points. Australia scored 61.6 percentage points, the U.S. — 38.4 percentage points, and Brazil — 19.4 percentage points. These findings are based on the results of the third wave of the study “Ukrainians’ Attitudes Toward Countries Around the World,” conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club, according to the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center.
Canada is viewed positively by 76.3% of Ukrainians surveyed, negatively by only 2.5%, neutrally by 19.2%, and another 2% were undecided. As a result, the balance of positive and negative assessments stands at 73.8 percentage points—the highest value among Ukraine’s 50 largest trading partners included in the study.
Australia ranks second in this regional group: 63.8% of respondents expressed a positive attitude toward it, 32.1% were neutral, only 2.2% were negative, and another 2% were undecided. The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at 61.6 percentage points, which also indicates a predominantly positive perception of the country among the Ukrainian audience.
Fifty-five percent of respondents view the U.S. positively, 16.6% negatively, 25.6% neutrally, and another 2.7% were unable to answer. The balance stands at 38.4 percentage points. At the same time, this figure has improved significantly compared to the previous survey wave: in March 2026, the figure was 19.4 percentage points, while in August 2025, it was 32.3 percentage points. Thus, over the course of five months, the balance of attitudes toward the U.S. has increased by 19 percentage points.
Brazil is viewed much more neutrally. Twenty-eight percent of Ukrainians expressed a positive attitude, while 59.7% chose a neutral response, 8.6% expressed a negative attitude, and another 3.7% were undecided. The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at 19.4 percentage points, compared to 21 percentage points in March 2026 and 12 percentage points in August 2025.
Thus, the data reveal significant differences within the group: Canada and Australia are characterized by a high level of established positive attitudes; in the U.S., positive assessments also predominate and have increased noticeably compared to March, while a neutral stance dominates regarding Brazil. Overall, Canada tops the entire ranking of the surveyed countries with a balance of +73.8 percentage points
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, and candidate of economic sciences, emphasized the need for systematic communication between foreign countries and Ukrainian society.
The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-administered online questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. According to the organizers, the sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and region; the maximum theoretical statistical margin of error for indicators at the 50% confidence level is ±3.5 percentage points. This is the third wave of the study, following surveys conducted in August 2025 and March 2026.
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Canada ranked first among countries with the highest net positive sentiment among Ukrainians—in August 2026, this figure stood at 73.8 percentage points. The top ten also included mainly countries from Northern and Western Europe, according to the results of the third wave of the study “Ukrainians’ Attitudes Toward Countries Around the World,” conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club, reports the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center.
Sweden took second place in terms of the balance of trust and distrust with a score of 70.6 percentage points, while the Netherlands came in third with 69.7 percentage points. Finland and Norway each scored 69.3 points, France scored 69.1 points, Italy scored 67.1 points, and Lithuania scored 65.9 points. Rounding out the top ten are Switzerland and the United Kingdom, which both scored 65.6 percentage points.
The sentiment score is calculated as the difference between the proportion of positive and negative ratings. Specifically, 76.3% of respondents view Canada positively, 2.5% negatively, and 19.2% neutrally. Thus, Canada’s high score is due not only to a significant proportion of favorable ratings but also to a minimal level of negative sentiment.
The survey results show that the top ten countries with the most favorable balance of attitudes consist almost entirely of countries in Northern and Western Europe, along with Canada. At the same time, the level of public favor does not always directly correspond to the scale of Ukraine’s trade and economic ties with a specific country. For example, China was Ukraine’s largest trading partner in the first half of 2026, yet it received the lowest balance of positive and negative assessments—minus 25.4 percentage points.
Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club, deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, and candidate of economic sciences, emphasized that studies of public perception should be considered alongside actual foreign trade indicators.
“That is why it is very important for us to analyze our main partners. We must be open to questions and inquiries from the media and the public,” Urakin noted. According to him, the results of sociological surveys can be used to assess international relations and their further development.
Alexander Pozniy, Director of Active Group, drew attention to the need to combine the creation of a positive image of countries with the practical development of bilateral economic ties.
“We should focus on developing more than just general awareness. We need to expand cooperation with countries where we can achieve a positive balance,” Pozniy noted. According to him, both government agencies and business associations should be involved in this process.
The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-administered online questionnaires via the SunFlowerSociology panel. A total of 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older were surveyed. According to the organizers, the sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and region; the maximum theoretical statistical margin of error at a 95% confidence level is 3.5%. This is the third wave of the survey, following surveys conducted in August 2025 and March 2026.
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Toronto and Vancouver saw the most significant declines in housing prices among the 23 largest global markets analyzed by UBS in 2026.
Over the past four quarters, real housing prices in both Canadian cities have fallen by approximately 10%, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026.
The correction was particularly severe in Toronto. From 2014 to 2022, real prices there doubled due to rapid population growth, investment demand, and cheap financing.
After 2022, the situation changed. Due to rising interest rates, restrictions on foreign buyers, and an increase in supply, real prices are now nearly 30% below their peak, according to UBS.
In Vancouver, real prices have fallen by nearly 10% since mid-2025 and are about 20% below their 2022 peak. Home sales have dropped to their lowest level in about 25 years, while the number of properties on the market remains significantly above the long-term average.
As a result, UBS now classifies both cities as only moderate risk: Toronto’s index stands at 0.63, and Vancouver’s at 0.62. Just a few years ago, the Canadian markets were considered among the most overheated in the world.
A correction is also underway in Germany, though less sharply. Real prices in Frankfurt and Munich have fallen by nearly 4% over the past year. In Frankfurt, housing prices—adjusted for inflation—are already about 25% below their 2021 peak.
At the same time, UBS notes that a structural housing shortage persists in both Germany and many other major cities, which limits the potential for further price declines.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
Canada ranked first in terms of the balance of positive and negative attitudes among Ukrainians among Ukraine’s 50 largest trading partners, while China, which leads in trade turnover, received the lowest indicator, and attitudes toward Poland deteriorated significantly, according to the results of a study by Active Group and the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the published ranking, the balance of positive and negative assessments of Canada amounted to plus 73.8 percentage points. It was followed by Sweden – plus 70.6 p.p., the Netherlands – 69.7 p.p., Finland and Norway – 69.3 p.p. each, France – 69.1 p.p., Italy – 67.1 p.p., Lithuania – 65.9 p.p., Switzerland and the United Kingdom – 65.6 p.p. each.
This indicator is the difference between the shares of positive and negative responses. In particular, 76.3% of respondents have a positive attitude toward Canada, 2.5% have a negative attitude, and 19.2% have a neutral attitude.
The worst balance was recorded for China – minus 25.4 p.p.: 18.2% of respondents assess it positively, 43.6% negatively, and 33.9% neutrally. India also has a negative indicator – minus 14.3 p.p., Hungary – minus 12.7 p.p., and Lebanon – minus 9.2 p.p.
Doctor of Sociological Sciences and head of the Kyiv branch of the Sociological Association of Ukraine Olga Bezrukova called China an illustrative example of the gap between the scale of economic interaction and the country’s public image.
“We saw that China is Ukraine’s largest economic partner in terms of total trade turnover, but this is in no way converted into a positive public image. This shows that Ukrainian citizens clearly distinguish between the pragmatism of economic interaction and the overall assessment of a state. Economic dependence and interaction do not equal public sympathy for this country,” she emphasized at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday.
One of the most noticeable changes was the deterioration in attitudes toward Poland. While in March 2026 the balance of assessments stood at plus 41.7 p.p., in August positive and negative responses were practically equal, with a slight predominance of negative ones. A positive attitude was expressed by 34.6% of respondents, a negative one by 37%, and a neutral one by 25.4%.
“At the beginning of the invasion, Poland was perceived almost as the main partner. We asked about the rapprochement between Ukraine and Poland, political and economic, even about uniting into some kind of common union, and we saw enormous positive results. But here we see: Poland seemingly still remains a key partner, but the idea of unification has already been forgotten, and we see stable negativity,” said Active Group founder Andriy Yeremenko.
He linked the deterioration in assessments to the position of part of the Polish authorities, which he considers anti-Ukrainian.
At the same time, the balance of attitudes toward Hungary improved from minus 33.6 p.p. in March to minus 12.7 p.p. in August, although negative assessments still prevail. For the United States, the indicator rose from plus 19.4 to plus 38.4 p.p. Some 55% of respondents have a positive attitude toward the United States, 16.6% a negative attitude, and 25.6% a neutral attitude.
When asked who contributes most to achieving peace in Ukraine, 44.6% of respondents named European Union countries, 25.2% the United States, 23.3% the United Kingdom, 4.1% China, 1.8% India, and 1% Brazil. Regarding priority development of trade and economic relations, 69.9% chose EU countries and the United Kingdom, 11.9% the United States, and 8.4% China.
According to Bezrukova, assessments of the U.S. role in achieving peace remained relatively stable throughout the three waves of the study.
“General sympathy toward a country and an assessment of its functionality at the international level are related but not identical things. Images of countries are multidimensional. A person may change their emotional attitude toward a state but continue to recognize its international weight,” the sociologist explained.
Another model, she said, is demonstrated by India: 48.3% of respondents express a neutral attitude toward it, but among formed assessments negative ones prevail – 31.5% versus 17.2% positive.
The economic indicators were presented by Experts Club founder, deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine agency and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin. According to State Customs Service data cited by him, in the first half of 2026 Ukraine’s trade turnover amounted to $70.3 billion, exports to $21 billion, and imports to $49.3 billion. The negative balance of trade in goods reached $28.3 billion.
“If we compare this with the first half of 2025, there was also an imbalance then, but now exports have increased by approximately 5%, while imports have risen by almost 30%. That is, the deficit increased by more than $10 billion over the year. Therefore, it is very important for us to analyze our main partners,” he emphasized.
According to the materials presented, trade turnover with China in January-June amounted to about $14.68 billion. Ukraine exported $778 million worth of goods to China and imported $13.90 billion, forming a deficit of approximately $13.12 billion. Poland remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian goods, with a volume of $2.38 billion. Türkiye ranked second among export markets with $1.78 billion, and Italy third with $1.28 billion.
In terms of total trade volume, China is followed by Poland – $7.05 billion, Türkiye – $4.90 billion, Germany – $4.48 billion, and the United States – $3.07 billion. Yeremenko highlighted Türkiye as an example of a combination of significant trade turnover and predominantly positive perception: 52.3% of respondents have a favorable attitude toward it, while 7.4% have a negative attitude.
Urakin separately drew attention to partners with which trade provides Ukraine with a positive balance. In the first half of the year, the largest was with Spain – $578.1 million, Egypt – $527.1 million, and Moldova – $467.2 million. They were followed by Algeria – $309.2 million, the Netherlands – $221.5 million, and Lebanon – $220.5 million. Libya, Tunisia, Iraq, and Yemen also entered the top ten.
At the same time, neutral attitudes prevail toward a number of these partners. Egypt is assessed neutrally by 61.3% of respondents, Algeria by 65.8%, and Tunisia by 67.3%. Participants in the press conference linked this to insufficient awareness among Ukrainians about these countries and emphasized the need for more active economic and public diplomacy.
“It is necessary to develop not only general awareness better. First of all, business associations, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to work to develop bilateral relations and improve the balance. In conditions where Ukraine already lacks financing and we live, essentially, at the expense of external borrowing, cooperation should be expanded with countries where we can have a positive balance,” said Active Group director Oleksandr Pozniy.
Urakin recommended that embassies accredited in Ukraine ensure full communication in the Ukrainian language, openness to the media, and regular reporting on the results of cooperation.
“The first recommendation is to regularly show concrete deeds, concrete actions, the presence here of foundations, embassies, teams, diplomats in the humanitarian sphere and in science. Second, to be open to questions and requests from the media and the public. We also need to use our sociology to draw conclusions and cement our relations, primarily trade relations,” he added.
This is the third wave of the study; the previous ones were conducted in August 2025 and March 2026. The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-completed online questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel. A total of 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and over were surveyed. According to the organizers, the sample is representative by age, gender and region, and the stated maximum theoretical statistical margin of error at a 95% confidence level is 3.5%.
ACTIVE GROUP, CANADA, CHINA, EXPERTS CLUB, POLAND, PUBLIC OPINION, TRADE, UKRAINE, UNITED STATES
To help Ukraine repair and strengthen its energy infrastructure ahead of another winter under attack from Russia, Canada has announced new support.
The announcements were made during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Canada and his meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
According to the website of the Office of the Prime Minister of Canada, the Canadian government will provide the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development with new loan guarantees totaling nearly 435 million Canadian dollars to support energy security, including the purchase of natural gas during the winter and backup generators for electricity production during shortages.
Canada is allocating 200 million Canadian dollars in concessional loans through Export Development Canada to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. As emphasized by the Prime Minister’s Office, this will help Ukraine repair critical infrastructure while providing Canadian companies with the opportunity to support critical projects.
The support package includes an additional 10 million Canadian dollars for the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, bringing the total to $100 million, to support Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including the procurement and delivery of critical energy equipment to enhance Ukrainians’ resilience to energy disruptions.
In addition, Canada announced a contribution of 2 million Canadian dollars to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Joint Work Program to support the development of Ukraine’s energy resources. This funding will strengthen Ukraine’s energy resilience, provide regulatory support, and promote clean energy projects.
