Cocoa bean prices fell below $4,000 per ton for the first time since 2023.
The market has been declining over the past year due to signs of weakening demand. Prices have now fallen nearly 70% from their peak levels reached at the end of 2024.
The decline in the price of March cocoa bean futures in New York on Friday reached 5.9%, with the price falling to $3,931 per ton, the lowest since November 2023.
As of 1:20 p.m. ET, these contracts are trading at $4,117 per ton.
The price of cocoa beans rose above $12,000 per ton in December 2024 due to poor harvests in West African countries. High prices led to a decline in consumer demand for chocolate, and its manufacturers began to change recipes, using cheaper substitutes and adding more fillers, such as nuts, according to Bloomberg.
Companies in Europe, the world’s largest consumer of cocoa beans, reduced their processing volumes in the fourth quarter to the lowest level since records began in 2013. Combined with increased supplies from some of the key cocoa bean producers, global supply will soon exceed demand.
This week, brokerage firm StoneX confirmed its forecast of a global cocoa bean supply surplus of 287,000 tons in the 2025/2026 agricultural year (October 2025 – September 2026), noting increased production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The surplus supply in the next agricultural year is forecast at 267,000 tons.
Scientists have found that cocoa powder, which is rich in flavanols, can play a significant role in strengthening artery health, according to New Atlas.
In a recently published study, researchers analyzed the effect of high-flavanol cocoa on arterial function in adult volunteers. It turned out that regular consumption of this product contributed to improved elasticity of the arterial walls — a key indicator of cardiovascular stability.
According to the study’s authors, adding a product with a high content of cocoa flavanols can be considered one of the additional methods of preventing vascular and heart disease. In particular, flavanols stimulate the release of nitric oxide, a substance that dilates blood vessels and reduces arterial resistance.
“Our work shows that intervention with a natural food component, cocoa flavanols, can improve vascular function in adults without significant cardiovascular disease,” said the lead author of the study.
However, the researchers emphasize that this approach does not replace clinical therapy, but serves only as a complementary measure along with proper nutrition, physical activity, and avoiding harmful habits.
It was previously known that dark chocolate containing cocoa with a high percentage of flavanols is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events. The new data confirm the mechanism of this effect and pave the way for the development of functional foods based on cocoa flavanols.
Cocoa futures prices have fallen to 20-month lows, dropping by about half compared to recent peaks.
The most active cocoa bean futures contract in New York fell to $6,150 per tonne during the session. Last December, the contract traded above $12,000.
In London, cocoa futures are trading at £4,262 ($5,713) per ton, down 58% from the multi-year highs seen last April.
The decline in cocoa prices was the result of a reduction in consumer demand, which, in turn, was caused by a sharp increase in prices in recent years, the Financial Times writes, citing analysts. In addition, experts expect a good harvest of cocoa beans in the largest producing countries located in West Africa.
“Prices rose to crazy heights and could not remain at such levels for long,” said Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort. “Quotations have been falling for most of this year, but a particularly pronounced downward trend has been observed since mid-August.”
