Copper is ending 2023 with the most significant price increase among non-ferrous metals due to supply disruptions, the Financial Times reports.
Copper rose by 2.5% to $8.6 thousand per tonne this year. This is due to signs of improvement in China’s economy amid production problems in Latin America.
The closure of a copper mine in Panama and the forecast of a significant reduction in Anglo American’s production will lead to a decrease in global supplies by 750 thousand tons, or 3% of the global figure, in 2024, according to Bank of Montreal analysts. The world’s largest mining companies, Vale and Rio Tinto, also recently published production forecasts that did not meet the expectations of some analysts.
Earlier, traders assumed that due to increased supplies from copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru and Chile, supply would exceed demand next year, but now a balanced market is expected.
“Only two months ago, expectations for the copper market in 2024 were downright pessimistic,” said Colin Hamilton, Managing Director of Commodities Research at BMO. – “But now the expectations of a bad year for copper have disappeared.
“The Chinese economy is doing well, although everyone seems to be talking about it as if it is in a recession,” said Daniel Smith, a spokesman for London-based metals broker AMT.
Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next twelve months the copper price will reach $10 thousand per tonne amid an expected decline in supplies.
Overall, this year has been a challenging one for the base metals market, particularly due to one of the most aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Higher rates pushed up the US dollar (the dollar index has gained more than 3% since the beginning of the year), making commodities more expensive for importers. The higher cost of borrowing also led to a reduction in capital-intensive investments and higher financing costs for metal stockpiles, prompting producers to reduce inventories.
These bearish factors put downward pressure on aluminum, lead and zinc, making non-ferrous metals the worst performing commodity sector for the second year in a row, the article notes. The price of nickel fell by 45% to $16.75 thousand per tonne due to a sharp increase in supplies from Indonesia.
Of the six major industrial metals, except copper, only tin has risen in price this year due to the suspension of mining in Myanmar, the world’s third largest producer.
In January-November this year, Ukrainian companies doubled their imports of copper and copper products in value terms compared to the same period last year, to $119.939 million.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, exports of copper and copper products decreased by 21.8% to $65.172 million over the period.
In November, the country imported copper worth $15.907 million and exported it worth $3.802 million.
In addition, in 11 months of 2023, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and products by 75.7% compared to the same period in 2022 to $14.366 million ($1.928 million in November), while aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.6% to $334.511 million ($26.885 million).
At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 67.5% to $919 thousand ($28 thousand), imports of tin and tin products by 23% to $2.419 million ($135 thousand), but increased imports of zinc and zinc products by 23.3% to $42.302 million ($4.776 million).
In January-November this year, exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 1.7% compared to the same period last year to $89.183 million ($7.176 million in November), exports of lead and lead products increased by 33.1% to $14.074 million ($1.267 million), and exports of nickel and nickel products amounted to $508 thousand ($251 thousand), while in 11 months of 2022 it was $1.168 million.
Zinc was exported for $117 thousand over 11 months (in November – $19 thousand) against $1.321 million in January-November 2022. Exports of tin and tin products amounted to $79 thousand (up $22 thousand in November) against $423 thousand in 11 months of 2012.
As reported, in 2022, Ukrainian enterprises reduced imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 64.3% compared to the previous year – to $65.370 million, while their exports decreased by 56.3% to $90.245 million.
In addition, in 2022, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and nickel products by 49.9% compared to 2021, to $59.754 million, and aluminum and aluminum products by 33.4%, to $340.398 million. At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 66.6%, to $2.839 million.
Imports of tin and tin products fell by 33.5% to $3.312 million, and imports of zinc and zinc products decreased by 58.7% to $38.690 million.
In 2022, exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 42.7% compared to 2021, to $96.972 million, lead and lead products – by 68.7%, to $11.970 million, and nickel and nickel products – by 73.9%, to $1.268 million.
Zinc exports in 2022 amounted to $1.331 million, while in 2021 they amounted to $550 thousand. Exports of tin and products in 2022 amounted to $424 thousand, compared to $346 thousand in the previous year.
In January-October this year, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 91.1% compared to the same period last year, to $104.029 million.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine on Wednesday, exports of copper and copper products decreased by 20.6% to $61.107 million over the period.
In October, Ukraine imported copper worth $13.932 million and exported it for $6.090 million.
In addition, in 10 months of 2023, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and products by 77.7% compared to the same period in 2022 to $12.438 million ($806 thousand in October), while imports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 10.1% to $307.569 million ($32.582 million).
At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 66.3% to $892 thousand ($19 thousand), imports of tin and tin products by 21.1% to $2.284 million ($232 thousand), but increased imports of zinc and zinc products by 23.1% to $37.525 million ($3.538 million).
Exports of aluminum and aluminum products in January-October this year decreased by 2.3% compared to the same period last year to $81.616 million (in October – $9.996 million), lead and lead products increased by 27.9% to $12.498 million ($1.308 million), nickel and nickel products amounted to $257 thousand ($1 thousand), while in 10 months of 2022 it was $1.086 million.
Zinc was exported abroad for $99 thousand over 10 months (in October – $10 thousand) against $1.321 million in January-October 2022. Exports of tin and tin products amounted to $57 thousand (no deliveries were made in October) against $421 thousand in 10 months of 2012.
As reported, in 2022, Ukrainian enterprises reduced imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 64.3% compared to the previous year – to $65.370 million, while their exports decreased by 56.3% to $90.245 million.
In addition, in 2022, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and nickel products by 49.9% compared to 2021, to $59.754 million, and aluminum and aluminum products by 33.4%, to $340.398 million. At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 66.6%, to $2.839 million.
Imports of tin and tin products fell by 33.5% to $3.312 million, and imports of zinc and zinc products decreased by 58.7% to $38.690 million.
In 2022, exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 42.7% compared to 2021, to $96.972 million, lead and lead products – by 68.7%, to $11.970 million, and nickel and nickel products – by 73.9%, to $1.268 million.
Zinc exports in 2022 amounted to $1.331 million, while in 2021 they amounted to $550 thousand. Exports of tin and products in 2022 amounted to $424 thousand, compared to $346 thousand in the previous year.
In January-September this year, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products by 89.7% in value terms compared to the same period last year, to $90.098 million.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, exports of copper and copper products decreased by 22.8% to $55.019 million over the period.
In September, the company imported copper worth $12.810 million and exported $4.822 million.
In addition, in the first nine months of 2023, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and products by 76.4% compared to the same period in 2022 to $11.632 million ($595 thousand in September), while imports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 14.8% to $274.988 million ($31.004 million).
At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 63.6% to $872 thousand ($151 thousand), imports of tin and tin products by 26.4% to $2.052 million ($419 thousand), but increased imports of zinc and zinc products by 20.4% to $33.988 million ($5.213 million).
Exports of aluminum and aluminum products in January-September of this year decreased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year to $71.630 million (in September – $8.344 million), lead and lead products increased by 19.4% to $11.190 million ($1.324 million), nickel and nickel products amounted to $256 thousand ($55 thousand), while in 9 months. 2022 it was $1,079 million.
Zinc was exported abroad for $88 thousand over nine months (no deliveries were made in September) against $1.302 million in January-September 2022. Exports of tin and products amounted to $57 thousand ($3 thousand in September) against $420 thousand in 9M2022.
As reported, in 2022, Ukrainian enterprises reduced imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 64.3% compared to the previous year – to $65.370 million, while their exports decreased by 56.3% to $90.245 million.
In addition, in 2022, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and nickel products by 49.9% compared to 2021, to $59.754 million, and aluminum and aluminum products by 33.4%, to $340.398 million. At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 66.6%, to $2.839 million.
Imports of tin and tin products fell by 33.5% to $3.312 million, and imports of zinc and zinc products decreased by 58.7% to $38.690 million.
In 2022, exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 42.7% compared to 2021, to $96.972 million, lead and lead products – by 68.7%, to $11.970 million, and nickel and nickel products – by 73.9%, to $1.268 million.
Zinc exports in 2022 amounted to $1.331 million, while in 2021 they amounted to $550 thousand. Exports of tin and products in 2022 amounted to $424 thousand, compared to $346 thousand in the previous year.
In January-August this year, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products by 85.1% year-on-year to $77.287 million.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, exports of copper and copper products decreased by 21.7% to $50.197 million over the period.
In August, copper was imported for $9.975 million and exported for $6.273 million.
In addition, in the first eight months of 2023, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and products by 75.3% compared to the same period in 2022 to $11.038 million ($2.599 million in August), while imports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 17.8% to $243.990 million ($38.614 million).
At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 67.9% to $722 thousand ($9 thousand), imports of tin and tin products by 33.8% to $1.633 million ($208 thousand), but increased imports of zinc and zinc products by 10.1% to $28.775 million ($3.934 million).
Exports of aluminum and aluminum products in January-August this year decreased by 4.8% compared to the same period last year to $63.289 million ($8.201 million in August), lead and lead products increased by 13.6% to $9.866 million ($0.876 million), nickel and nickel products amounted to $201 thousand ($76 thousand), while in 8 months. 2022 it was $1.339 million.
Zinc was exported abroad for eight months by $88 thousand (in August – $2 thousand) against $1.302 million in January-August 2022. Exports of tin and products amounted to $53 thousand (in August – $1 thousand) against $396 thousand in 8 months of 2022.
As reported, in 2022, Ukrainian enterprises reduced imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 64.3% compared to the previous year – to $65.370 million, while their exports decreased by 56.3% to $90.245 million.
In addition, in 2022, Ukraine reduced imports of nickel and nickel products by 49.9% compared to 2021, to $59.754 million, and aluminum and aluminum products by 33.4%, to $340.398 million. At the same time, it reduced imports of lead and lead products by 66.6%, to $2.839 million.
Imports of tin and tin products fell by 33.5% to $3.312 million, and imports of zinc and zinc products decreased by 58.7% to $38.690 million.
In 2022, exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 42.7% compared to 2021, to $96.972 million, lead and lead products – by 68.7%, to $11.970 million, and nickel and nickel products – by 73.9%, to $1.268 million.
Zinc exports in 2022 amounted to $1.331 million, while in 2021 they amounted to $550 thousand. Exports of tin and products in 2022 amounted to $424 thousand, compared to $346 thousand in the previous year.
Ukrainian companies in January-July this year increased imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 95.6% compared to the same period last year – up to $67.313m.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, exports of copper and copper products for the period decreased by 26.4% to $43.924 million.
In July, $11.024m worth of copper was imported and $4.491m worth of copper was exported.
