According to Experts.news, the structure of Ukraine’s dairy exports has changed significantly over the past year: the share of butter and other milk fats in foreign exchange earnings has more than halved, while dry and condensed milk have become the largest export category, according to an analysis by the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU).
In August 2025, butter and other milk fats under commodity code 0405 accounted for 36% of the value of Ukraine’s dairy exports, whereas in August 2026, their share fell to 15%. At the same time, the share of dry and condensed milk increased from 24% to 37%, and that of whey from 5% to 11%.
The change in structure occurred gradually. Butter accounted for 36% in August 2025, falling to 25% in October, to 22% in March 2026, and to 15% in August. At the same time, the share of dry and condensed milk rose from 24% to 24%, then to 35% and 37%, respectively. Thus, the shift in the structure of Ukrainian dairy exports occurred primarily between the fall of 2025 and the spring of 2026.
According to the SMPU’s assessment, one of the factors was the situation on the global market for milk fats. Butter prices were under pressure, and the Global Dairy Trade index fell for nine consecutive auctions at the end of 2025. Since the export structure is calculated in value terms, the decline in butter’s share is linked not only to physical shipment volumes but also to changes in global prices.
At the same time, experts cite the growing role of whey as the most notable structural change. Its share of export revenue more than doubled over the year. By August 2026, dry milk, condensed milk, and whey together accounted for 48% of the value of Ukraine’s dairy exports.
The share of cheeses—which are considered higher-value-added products with potentially higher profit margins—remained virtually unchanged, at about 24% in August 2025 and 25% a year later. Thus, the structure of Ukraine’s dairy exports is shifting increasingly toward commodities and raw materials.
This trend is unfolding against the backdrop of a general deterioration in the dairy industry’s trade balance. According to data published by the Ukrainian Dairy Producers Association (SMPU) on September 2, Ukraine exported $176.9 million worth of dairy products in January–August 2026, which is 20.5% less than during the same period last year. At the same time, imports increased by 24.7% to $247.2 million.
In volume terms, butter exports fell by roughly half over the eight-month period, while shipments of dry milk and condensed milk decreased by 7%. At the same time, exports of fermented milk products rose by 28%, milk whey by 1.1%, and cheese by 0.9%.
As a result, Ukraine shifted from a trade surplus in dairy products to a trade deficit. For January–August 2026, the deficit totaled $70.3 million, whereas a year earlier the surplus had reached $24.1 million. The export-to-import ratio fell from 1.12 to 0.72.
On the import side, cheese remains the largest category, although its share in August fell year-over-year from 82.3% to 76.9%. At the same time, the share of imported milk and cream, whey, and butter increased, intensifying competition for Ukrainian processors in the domestic market.
The Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (SMPU) brings together Ukrainian milk producers and processors and represents the interests of companies in the industry. The organization was founded in 2001.
Original source: analysis by the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine on Ua Dairy
Dairy products in Ukraine may become 20–25% more expensive due to rising production, processing, and logistics costs, as well as losses incurred by retail chains after losing distribution centers as a result of Russian strikes, according to a forecast by the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
“Disruptions in supply chains and rising costs of production, processing, and logistics are creating the conditions for higher prices for dairy products in Ukraine,” the statement notes.
According to the association, as of the end of August, the average price of pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% in a plastic film package was 50.55 UAH/kg, which is 3.7% higher than a month earlier and 11.2% higher than last year. The price of pasteurized milk in plastic bottles rose by 2.1% over the month, to 68.44 UAH/kg.
The average price of Ukrainian-produced butter with a fat content of 72.5–73% was 591.45 UAH/kg, down 0.1% over the month but still 2% higher than last year. At the same time, the APM does not expect butter prices to fall in early fall: there are fewer low-price offers on the domestic market, and the lower limit of the price range has effectively stabilized.
According to the APM’s assessment, demand for dairy products is weak and is even deteriorating due to low consumer purchasing power, consumers being forced to leave the country, and disrupted supply chains from processing plants to supermarkets as a result of Russian strikes on distribution centers.
“Traditionally, dairy processing plants supplied finished products to a retail chain’s distribution center, and from there, they were delivered by truck to supermarkets. Currently, this chain has been severed,” notes the APM.
According to the association’s forecast, retail chains will attempt to pass on the losses incurred due to the loss of distribution centers to consumers. In the APM’s view, this could lead to a decline in dairy consumption.
As previously reported, in early August, the APM predicted a 5–10% increase in dairy product prices by the end of summer and during the fall and winter. At that time, the association attributed the potential price hike to rising costs for diesel fuel, electricity, packaging materials, and logistics, as well as to exchange rate fluctuations.
Source: https://avm-ua.org/uk/post/cini-na-molocni-produkti-divlatsa-vgoru
Consumer prices for dairy products in Ukraine showed a significantly slower rate of growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to other food categories, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that, on an annual basis, milk prices rose by 7.3%, sour cream by 5.7%, and soft cheeses by 5.3%, while the price of butter increased by only 1.9%. At the same time, the cost of meat, eggs, and bread increased by 15% to over 20% during the same period.
“Over the past six months, dairy prices have remained relatively stable. They rose slightly or even fell slightly, as in the case of butter, which became 1.4% cheaper. In contrast, eggs, vegetable oil, and bread have risen significantly in price, while only pork and chicken have become cheaper. The situation is similar with producer prices. The dairy industry, therefore, remains one of the main factors holding back food inflation,” the statement quotes a representative of the SMPU as saying.
According to the association’s data, the annual change in producers’ selling prices for dairy products ranged from -3.2% for butter to +5% for sour cream.
By comparison, producer prices for beef, poultry, pasta, and bread rose significantly more—up to 34%.
Over the past six months, the SMPU reported, producer prices for dairy products have mostly declined, while most other food products continued to rise in price.
In March 2026, Ukraine exported 12,430 metric tons of dairy products worth $35.38 million, which is 25.1% more in volume than in February and 44% more in revenue, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
As noted by the industry association, exports by volume increased by only 1% compared to March 2025, while revenue decreased by 7%.
In total, in the first quarter of 2026, the country exported 30,560 tons of dairy products (-2%) worth $81.46 million (-9%) to foreign markets. In March, the key products were condensed milk and cream (25% of exports), cheese (17%), butter (15%), and casein (15%).
ABM analysts attribute the increase in shipments in March to the war in the Middle East and the logistical collapse in Iran, which had been a major competitor to Ukraine in the markets of Iraq, the Persian Gulf countries, and Central Asia. Due to disruptions in Iranian exports, buyers began returning to Ukrainian suppliers, whose product prices are currently nearly identical.
In March 2026, compared to February, Ukraine increased exports of condensed milk to 3,600 tons (+20%), whey to 1,710 tons (+24%), cheese to 1,320 tons (+14%), and ice cream to 1,370 tons (+96%). However, shipments of non-condensed milk fell to 2,010 tons (-10%). Revenue from condensed milk rose to $8.92 million, and from cheese to $6.15 million.
“Increased supply of raw materials and weak domestic demand are forcing processors to expand more actively into foreign markets. Despite quotas, the EU’s share of export revenue reached 36%. In particular, Germany has become a strategic market for casein and fresh cheeses under private label, while Poland, in addition to importing into Ukraine, is actively purchasing our butter and dry whey,” the association noted.
Against the backdrop of rising exports, imports are intensifying pressure on the domestic market. In January–March, Ukraine imported 16,950 tons of dairy products (+10%) worth $83.18 million, with cheese accounting for 63%. Experts warned that the surplus of European cheeses being redirected from China poses a threat to domestic cheese producers and could lead to a drop in milk purchase prices in Ukraine.
The foreign trade balance in the first quarter of 2026 remained negative at -$1.72 million.
To stabilize the situation, the industry association is insisting on the introduction of state protective measures against uncontrolled imports from the EU.
Prices for dairy products in Ukraine rose in March 2026 due to increased logistics costs, higher energy prices, and a surge in exports, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% in film packaging rose in price by 0.99 UAH (+2.1%) over the month—to 48.86 UAH/kg, while the price in plastic bottles rose by 0.93 UAH (+1.4%) to 66.86 UAH/kg. The cheapest milk in the category remains the “Adalis” brand (41.99 UAH/kg), while the most expensive are ‘Yagotynske’ (57.77 UAH/kg) and “Galychyna” (72.73 UAH/kg).
Kefir with 2.5% fat content in film packaging costs an average of 58.52 UAH/kg, which is 1.62 UAH less than a month ago. Meanwhile, the price of the product in plastic bottles remained stable at 78.10 UAH/kg. Sour cream with 15% fat content in cups rose in price by 0.72 UAH to 190.59 UAH/kg, while drinking yogurt increased in price by 3.5% and costs an average of 124.35 UAH/kg. Sour milk cheese with 9% fat content rose in price by 1% to 292.31 UAH/kg.
Domestically produced butter (72.5–73%) rose in price by 2% to 585.51 UAH/kg. Analysts noted that imported President butter costs 960 UAH/kg, which is 64% more expensive than Ukrainian products.
“Ukrainian” cheese (50%) rose in price to 608.80 UAH/kg, and “Dutch” cheese (45%) to 610.05 UAH/kg (+3.3%). The most significant increase was recorded for “Maasdam” cheese, which rose in price by 6.6% to 768.37 UAH/kg. Meanwhile, imported equivalents of ‘Maasdam’ and “Gouda” from the Kroon brand cost 31% less than domestic products.
ABM analysts also attribute the rise in costs to the situation in the Persian Gulf, which caused a spike in prices for petroleum products and freight.
“Domestic sales of locally produced dairy products should be boosted by the government’s support for Draft Law No. 6068-d on countering unfair trade practices by retail chains and the implementation of protective measures against the significantly increasing imports of dairy products. We need to combat the gray import of dairy products into Ukraine. Food for humanitarian aid packages and other government purposes should be purchased exclusively from domestic producers,” the ABM emphasized.
Foreign trade in dairy products in January 2026 amounted to $40.5 million, which is 35% less than in December 2025 ($61.8 million) and 26% less than in November 2025 ($54.7 million), according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that exports in January 2026 amounted to $18.0 million, which is 27% less than in December 2025 ($24.6 million) and 24.3% less than in November 2025 ($23.8 million).
Imports in January this year amounted to $22.4 million, which is 40% less than in December 2025 ($37.2 million) and 27.5% less than in November 2025 ($30.9 million).
The export-import balance in January 2026 was negative (-$4.4 million), as it was in December 2025 (-$12.5 million) and November 2025 (-$7.0 million). The ratio of exports to imports in January was 0.80 (in December – 0.66; in November – 0.77).
The association’s analysts noted that in the value structure of exports in January 2026, 32% was accounted for by milk and condensed cream, 27% by cheese, and 21% by butter and other fats. Compared to January 2025, the share of all types of cheese increased from 22% to 27% amid a decline in the share of butter and other dairy fats from 30% to 21%.
There were no significant changes in the value structure of imports during the reporting period compared to January 2025: the share of all types of cheese decreased slightly from 79.8% to 78.4% (-1.4 percentage points), while the share of whey increased significantly, from 1.8% to 6.3%, according to the SMU.
