Dairy products in Ukraine may become 20–25% more expensive due to rising production, processing, and logistics costs, as well as losses incurred by retail chains after losing distribution centers as a result of Russian strikes, according to a forecast by the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
“Disruptions in supply chains and rising costs of production, processing, and logistics are creating the conditions for higher prices for dairy products in Ukraine,” the statement notes.
According to the association, as of the end of August, the average price of pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% in a plastic film package was 50.55 UAH/kg, which is 3.7% higher than a month earlier and 11.2% higher than last year. The price of pasteurized milk in plastic bottles rose by 2.1% over the month, to 68.44 UAH/kg.
The average price of Ukrainian-produced butter with a fat content of 72.5–73% was 591.45 UAH/kg, down 0.1% over the month but still 2% higher than last year. At the same time, the APM does not expect butter prices to fall in early fall: there are fewer low-price offers on the domestic market, and the lower limit of the price range has effectively stabilized.
According to the APM’s assessment, demand for dairy products is weak and is even deteriorating due to low consumer purchasing power, consumers being forced to leave the country, and disrupted supply chains from processing plants to supermarkets as a result of Russian strikes on distribution centers.
“Traditionally, dairy processing plants supplied finished products to a retail chain’s distribution center, and from there, they were delivered by truck to supermarkets. Currently, this chain has been severed,” notes the APM.
According to the association’s forecast, retail chains will attempt to pass on the losses incurred due to the loss of distribution centers to consumers. In the APM’s view, this could lead to a decline in dairy consumption.
As previously reported, in early August, the APM predicted a 5–10% increase in dairy product prices by the end of summer and during the fall and winter. At that time, the association attributed the potential price hike to rising costs for diesel fuel, electricity, packaging materials, and logistics, as well as to exchange rate fluctuations.
Source: https://avm-ua.org/uk/post/cini-na-molocni-produkti-divlatsa-vgoru
Consumer prices for dairy products in Ukraine showed a significantly slower rate of growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to other food categories, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that, on an annual basis, milk prices rose by 7.3%, sour cream by 5.7%, and soft cheeses by 5.3%, while the price of butter increased by only 1.9%. At the same time, the cost of meat, eggs, and bread increased by 15% to over 20% during the same period.
“Over the past six months, dairy prices have remained relatively stable. They rose slightly or even fell slightly, as in the case of butter, which became 1.4% cheaper. In contrast, eggs, vegetable oil, and bread have risen significantly in price, while only pork and chicken have become cheaper. The situation is similar with producer prices. The dairy industry, therefore, remains one of the main factors holding back food inflation,” the statement quotes a representative of the SMPU as saying.
According to the association’s data, the annual change in producers’ selling prices for dairy products ranged from -3.2% for butter to +5% for sour cream.
By comparison, producer prices for beef, poultry, pasta, and bread rose significantly more—up to 34%.
Over the past six months, the SMPU reported, producer prices for dairy products have mostly declined, while most other food products continued to rise in price.
In March 2026, Ukraine exported 12,430 metric tons of dairy products worth $35.38 million, which is 25.1% more in volume than in February and 44% more in revenue, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
As noted by the industry association, exports by volume increased by only 1% compared to March 2025, while revenue decreased by 7%.
In total, in the first quarter of 2026, the country exported 30,560 tons of dairy products (-2%) worth $81.46 million (-9%) to foreign markets. In March, the key products were condensed milk and cream (25% of exports), cheese (17%), butter (15%), and casein (15%).
ABM analysts attribute the increase in shipments in March to the war in the Middle East and the logistical collapse in Iran, which had been a major competitor to Ukraine in the markets of Iraq, the Persian Gulf countries, and Central Asia. Due to disruptions in Iranian exports, buyers began returning to Ukrainian suppliers, whose product prices are currently nearly identical.
In March 2026, compared to February, Ukraine increased exports of condensed milk to 3,600 tons (+20%), whey to 1,710 tons (+24%), cheese to 1,320 tons (+14%), and ice cream to 1,370 tons (+96%). However, shipments of non-condensed milk fell to 2,010 tons (-10%). Revenue from condensed milk rose to $8.92 million, and from cheese to $6.15 million.
“Increased supply of raw materials and weak domestic demand are forcing processors to expand more actively into foreign markets. Despite quotas, the EU’s share of export revenue reached 36%. In particular, Germany has become a strategic market for casein and fresh cheeses under private label, while Poland, in addition to importing into Ukraine, is actively purchasing our butter and dry whey,” the association noted.
Against the backdrop of rising exports, imports are intensifying pressure on the domestic market. In January–March, Ukraine imported 16,950 tons of dairy products (+10%) worth $83.18 million, with cheese accounting for 63%. Experts warned that the surplus of European cheeses being redirected from China poses a threat to domestic cheese producers and could lead to a drop in milk purchase prices in Ukraine.
The foreign trade balance in the first quarter of 2026 remained negative at -$1.72 million.
To stabilize the situation, the industry association is insisting on the introduction of state protective measures against uncontrolled imports from the EU.
Prices for dairy products in Ukraine rose in March 2026 due to increased logistics costs, higher energy prices, and a surge in exports, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% in film packaging rose in price by 0.99 UAH (+2.1%) over the month—to 48.86 UAH/kg, while the price in plastic bottles rose by 0.93 UAH (+1.4%) to 66.86 UAH/kg. The cheapest milk in the category remains the “Adalis” brand (41.99 UAH/kg), while the most expensive are ‘Yagotynske’ (57.77 UAH/kg) and “Galychyna” (72.73 UAH/kg).
Kefir with 2.5% fat content in film packaging costs an average of 58.52 UAH/kg, which is 1.62 UAH less than a month ago. Meanwhile, the price of the product in plastic bottles remained stable at 78.10 UAH/kg. Sour cream with 15% fat content in cups rose in price by 0.72 UAH to 190.59 UAH/kg, while drinking yogurt increased in price by 3.5% and costs an average of 124.35 UAH/kg. Sour milk cheese with 9% fat content rose in price by 1% to 292.31 UAH/kg.
Domestically produced butter (72.5–73%) rose in price by 2% to 585.51 UAH/kg. Analysts noted that imported President butter costs 960 UAH/kg, which is 64% more expensive than Ukrainian products.
“Ukrainian” cheese (50%) rose in price to 608.80 UAH/kg, and “Dutch” cheese (45%) to 610.05 UAH/kg (+3.3%). The most significant increase was recorded for “Maasdam” cheese, which rose in price by 6.6% to 768.37 UAH/kg. Meanwhile, imported equivalents of ‘Maasdam’ and “Gouda” from the Kroon brand cost 31% less than domestic products.
ABM analysts also attribute the rise in costs to the situation in the Persian Gulf, which caused a spike in prices for petroleum products and freight.
“Domestic sales of locally produced dairy products should be boosted by the government’s support for Draft Law No. 6068-d on countering unfair trade practices by retail chains and the implementation of protective measures against the significantly increasing imports of dairy products. We need to combat the gray import of dairy products into Ukraine. Food for humanitarian aid packages and other government purposes should be purchased exclusively from domestic producers,” the ABM emphasized.
Foreign trade in dairy products in January 2026 amounted to $40.5 million, which is 35% less than in December 2025 ($61.8 million) and 26% less than in November 2025 ($54.7 million), according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that exports in January 2026 amounted to $18.0 million, which is 27% less than in December 2025 ($24.6 million) and 24.3% less than in November 2025 ($23.8 million).
Imports in January this year amounted to $22.4 million, which is 40% less than in December 2025 ($37.2 million) and 27.5% less than in November 2025 ($30.9 million).
The export-import balance in January 2026 was negative (-$4.4 million), as it was in December 2025 (-$12.5 million) and November 2025 (-$7.0 million). The ratio of exports to imports in January was 0.80 (in December – 0.66; in November – 0.77).
The association’s analysts noted that in the value structure of exports in January 2026, 32% was accounted for by milk and condensed cream, 27% by cheese, and 21% by butter and other fats. Compared to January 2025, the share of all types of cheese increased from 22% to 27% amid a decline in the share of butter and other dairy fats from 30% to 21%.
There were no significant changes in the value structure of imports during the reporting period compared to January 2025: the share of all types of cheese decreased slightly from 79.8% to 78.4% (-1.4 percentage points), while the share of whey increased significantly, from 1.8% to 6.3%, according to the SMU.
The volume of foreign trade in dairy products in the first half of January 2026 amounted to $13.6 million, which is 59% less than in the first half of December 2025, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that dairy product exports in January 2026 decreased by 51% compared to December and by 43% compared to November 2025. At the same time, imports were 65.5% lower than in December and 49.5% lower than in November 2025. The trade balance for dairy products for the reporting period was negative $1.2 million.
According to industry analysts, there was a 56% decline in exports of milk and condensed cream, a 65% decline in exports of butter and milk fats, and a 46% decline in exports of all types of cheese. At the same time, exports of whey increased by 12%.
In the structure of imports in January of this year, there was a decrease in fermented milk products by 19% and all types of cheese by 65%. Imports of whey increased by 134%, the SMPU summarized.
