In the first half of August 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of dairy products to $14.7 million, the highest figure since the beginning of the year for similar periods. The previous record was set in the first half of March, six months ago, at $13.2 million, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (UDIA).
The industry association noted that in monetary terms, imports increased by 30% compared to the first half of July and almost one and a half times compared to the first half of June.
In addition, in real terms, growth was recorded for almost all commodity items, except for whey, imports of which fell by a third. The largest increase, 25%, was observed in the cheese group: more than 1.8 thousand tons of this product were imported into the country. This commodity item accounts for the lion’s share of the value structure of imports (almost 85%).
As a result, the balance of exports and imports of dairy products became negative for the first time since March, at $(-4.3) million.
Analysts believe that such a significant increase in imports was largely due to the rise in domestic prices for raw milk in Ukraine, which occurred in the second half of July (+5%) and continued in August. This partially reduced the competitiveness of domestic products, making imports more attractive.
“Such dynamics affect the country’s balance of payments and require a balanced approach to pricing in the domestic dairy products market,” the SMPU concluded.
In January-June 2025, Ukraine increased exports of dairy products by 51.4% to 327,000 tons compared to 216,000 tons in the same period of 2024,
while exports of milk-containing products increased by 35.8% to 410,000 tons compared to 302,000 tons, according to the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association (SMU).
The industry association noted that the share of milk that was processed and exported from the country in the form of dairy products is growing.
According to analysts, the growth was most noticeable in January-June: the ratio of exports of dairy and milk-containing products (in milk equivalent) to the volume of milk sent for processing was 22.7%, with an increase to 25.9% in the second quarter compared to 19.3% in the first quarter.
This means that while in the first quarter approximately one-fifth of milk was used for the production of dairy products for export, by the end of the first half of the year this figure had risen to almost a quarter of the milk sent for processing, experts explained.
“Milk processing plants in Ukraine are increasing milk purchases, fully meeting the needs of the domestic market, and using all available opportunities to develop export markets,” the SMPA assured.
The total volume of foreign trade in dairy products in February 2025 amounted to $45.6 million, which is 8.5% more than in January 2025 ($42.0 million) and 16.4% lower than in December 2024 ($54.5 million), according to the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP).
According to the report, dairy exports in February 2025 amounted to $24.2 million and increased by 25% compared to January 2025 ($19.3 million) and by 51% compared to December 2024 ($16.0 million).
“Such significant export volumes have not been recorded since October-2022,” the analysts emphasized.
According to them, the value structure of exports was formed as follows: 36% milk and condensed cream, 30% butter, 20% cheese.
At the same time, in February 2025, compared to February 2024, the value structure of exports changed slightly: the share of butter and milk fats increased (from 13% to 30%), while the share of cheeses of all kinds decreased (from 28% to 20%) and milk and cream not condensed (from 10% to 6%).
At the same time, imports continued to decline and became the lowest in the last six months: in February 2025, they amounted to $21.4 million, which is 6% lower than in January 2025 ($22.7 million) and 44% lower than in December 2024 ($38.5 million).
In addition, in February 2025, compared to February 2024, there were changes in the value structure of imports: the share of cheese increased (from 68.2% to 83.4%) against a significant decrease in the share of butter (from 16.5% to 2.4%). The share of cheese (83.4%) reached its highest level in recent years.
The balance of exports and imports in February 2025 was positive: $2.8 million, compared to -$3.4 million in January 2025 and -$22.6 million in December 2014.
In February 2025, exports in value terms exceeded imports by 13% (in January 2025 – 0.85 times, in December 2024 – 0.41 times).
In February 2025, Ukraine increased the total volume of foreign trade in dairy products to $45.6 million, which is 8.5% more than in January 2025 ($42.0 million), but 16.4% lower than in December 2024 ($54.5 million), the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine reported.
According to the report, dairy exports in February 2025 amounted to $24.2 million and increased by 25% compared to January 2025 ($19.3 million) and by 51% compared to December 2024 ($16.0 million). The growth occurred in all commodity items, especially in milk and condensed cream (+0.91 thousand tons) and butter and milk fats (+0.25 thousand tons).
At the same time, 36% of the export structure was accounted for by milk and condensed cream, 30% by butter, and 20% by cheese.
Experts emphasized that such significant export volumes have not been recorded since October 2022.
Instead, import volumes continued to decline and became the lowest in the last six months: in February 2025, they amounted to $21.4 million and decreased by 6% compared to January 2025 ($22.7 million) and by 44% compared to December 2024 ($38.5 million). Moreover, the volume of cheese imports was standard, while the volume of fermented dairy products imports decreased by 14.5% compared to January.
The export-import balance in February 2025 was positive: ($2.8 million) – against $(-3.4) million in January 2025 and $(-22.6) million in December 2024.
Exports in value terms exceeded imports by 13% in February 2025 (0.85 times in January 2025, 0.41 times in December 2024).
In January, Ukraine increased imports of dairy products by 55% compared to the same period last year, Infagro news agency reported.
“The market of fresh dairy products began to revive in February. Sales growth is rather slow, there is no positive dynamics that was observed in the same period of previous years. In February, prices began to stabilize, but unfortunately, by this time they had already reached a very high level,” analysts said.
Experts suggested that in order to stimulate sales, it would be right to reduce prices, especially for sour cream and cottage cheese. Therefore, the major players will try to resort to promotional sales with significant price reductions more often in the near future. In any case, there should definitely be no further price increases, they believe.
“Domestic producers should already be concerned about a significant increase in imports of fresh dairy products. In January, they were imported by 55% more than in the same period last year. And if earlier Ukraine mainly imported yogurt and various cheese products, in January several hundred tons of cheap Polish milk were imported. Polish imports of fresh dairy products accounted for 60% of the total volume,” the industry publication emphasized.
Exports of fresh dairy products are also growing, but not at the same rate as imports. The main export market for Ukrainian fresh dairy products remains Moldova, 88%, Infagro summarized.
In January 2025, Ukraine exported 8.1 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 12% more than in December 2024, and 23% more than in January 2024, the Association of Milk Producers (AMP) reported, citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that the main export categories were milk and cream, condensed – 29%, milk and cream, not condensed – 21%, whey – 18% and cheeses – 12%.
In January 2025, compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased natural exports of butter to 749 tons (+71%), ice cream to 490 tons (+37%), condensed milk and cream to 2.33 thousand tons (+16%), whey to 1.44 thousand tons (+12%), butter to 422 tons (+10%) and cheese to 935 tons (+9%). However, over the past month, Ukrainian exporters have reduced shipments of milk and cream, not condensed to 1.72 thousand tons (-9%) and did not supply casein to foreign markets.
The AMP noted that January exports in 2025 increased compared to January 2024 for the following products: butter (+198%), ice cream (+77%), whey (+55%), cheeses (+52%), butter (+42%), and condensed milk and cream (+38%). Ukrainian exporters shipped milk and cream, not condensed, by 32% less than last year.
AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleshvili suggested that Ukrainian companies stepped up export activity in January 2025, taking advantage of high prices for commodities in the world. In particular, the European market was in demand for large wholesale quantities of butter. Consequently, demand for butter, cheese, and milk powder increased in January on export markets, likely due to preparations for the Chinese New Year and Ramadan.
At the same time, in January 2025, Ukraine imported 5.02 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 34% less than in December and 6% less than in January 2024. Compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased imports of whey to 628 tons (+17%), butter to 615 tons (+165%) and ice cream to 51 tons (+53%), the AMP summarized.
