In January, Ukraine increased imports of dairy products by 55% compared to the same period last year, Infagro news agency reported.
“The market of fresh dairy products began to revive in February. Sales growth is rather slow, there is no positive dynamics that was observed in the same period of previous years. In February, prices began to stabilize, but unfortunately, by this time they had already reached a very high level,” analysts said.
Experts suggested that in order to stimulate sales, it would be right to reduce prices, especially for sour cream and cottage cheese. Therefore, the major players will try to resort to promotional sales with significant price reductions more often in the near future. In any case, there should definitely be no further price increases, they believe.
“Domestic producers should already be concerned about a significant increase in imports of fresh dairy products. In January, they were imported by 55% more than in the same period last year. And if earlier Ukraine mainly imported yogurt and various cheese products, in January several hundred tons of cheap Polish milk were imported. Polish imports of fresh dairy products accounted for 60% of the total volume,” the industry publication emphasized.
Exports of fresh dairy products are also growing, but not at the same rate as imports. The main export market for Ukrainian fresh dairy products remains Moldova, 88%, Infagro summarized.
In January 2025, Ukraine exported 8.1 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 12% more than in December 2024, and 23% more than in January 2024, the Association of Milk Producers (AMP) reported, citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that the main export categories were milk and cream, condensed – 29%, milk and cream, not condensed – 21%, whey – 18% and cheeses – 12%.
In January 2025, compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased natural exports of butter to 749 tons (+71%), ice cream to 490 tons (+37%), condensed milk and cream to 2.33 thousand tons (+16%), whey to 1.44 thousand tons (+12%), butter to 422 tons (+10%) and cheese to 935 tons (+9%). However, over the past month, Ukrainian exporters have reduced shipments of milk and cream, not condensed to 1.72 thousand tons (-9%) and did not supply casein to foreign markets.
The AMP noted that January exports in 2025 increased compared to January 2024 for the following products: butter (+198%), ice cream (+77%), whey (+55%), cheeses (+52%), butter (+42%), and condensed milk and cream (+38%). Ukrainian exporters shipped milk and cream, not condensed, by 32% less than last year.
AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleshvili suggested that Ukrainian companies stepped up export activity in January 2025, taking advantage of high prices for commodities in the world. In particular, the European market was in demand for large wholesale quantities of butter. Consequently, demand for butter, cheese, and milk powder increased in January on export markets, likely due to preparations for the Chinese New Year and Ramadan.
At the same time, in January 2025, Ukraine imported 5.02 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 34% less than in December and 6% less than in January 2024. Compared to December 2024, Ukraine increased imports of whey to 628 tons (+17%), butter to 615 tons (+165%) and ice cream to 51 tons (+53%), the AMP summarized.
In the first half of January 2025, Ukraine reduced the volume of foreign trade in dairy products by 42.7% compared to the first half of December 2024 – to $15.8 million, the press service of the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP) reported.
According to the report, exports decreased by 14%, imports – by 54%.
The industry association noted an increase in exports of butter and milk fats by 57%, while exports of milk and condensed cream decreased by 31%, and whey by 28%.
At the same time, imports of milk and cream not condensed increased by 75%, while imports of butter/milk fats decreased by 74% and cheeses of all kinds by 53%.
As reported, the industry media noted an increase in imports of rennet cheeses (hard, semi-hard, white) by 50% compared to December 2023 to 4.6 thousand tons. The supply of European processed cheeses increased by 28% to more than 500 tons in the same period.
The volume of foreign trade in dairy products in the first half of October amounted to $20.4 million and increased by 7.8% compared to the first half of September, according to the expert and analytical service of the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP).
According to the report, the volume of exports increased by 5.3% to $9.8 million, and imports by 10.2% to $10.6 million. In particular, the share of cheese exports increased by 67%, and fermented milk products by 4%.
Exports of whey decreased by 58%, butter and milk fats by 19%, and milk and cream by 6%.
At the same time, imports of butter and milk fats increased by 76%, whey by 14%, fermented milk products by 11%, and cheese by 5%. A 3% decline in imports was observed only for milk and cream, the UUL stated.
In Ukraine, raw milk prices rose by 10% in September, and over the past three months they have risen by almost a quarter, while the cost of processed products has risen by 15%, according to Infagro, an industry information and analytical agency.
“The weather has become quite comfortable, there are fewer power outages, cow productivity is recovering, and milk is available. With the relative stability of energy supply, there are fewer problems with the collection of raw materials and logistics. All this is good for milk producers, but processors suffer from the growth rate of prices for raw milk,” the analysts said.
Experts noted that the current purchase price of milk at 18 UAH/kg is no longer surprising. Moreover, there are cases of its purchase even at 19 UAH/kg. Processors are also trying to raise prices for their products. However, while milk prices have risen by a quarter, few have managed to increase prices for most dairy products by more than 15%, except for some butter producers. As a result, most factories are already operating on the brink of loss, and some are making a loss.
“The price increase will not stop in October. Fresh dairy products and cheeses may rise by another 12-15% by the end of the year. That is, dairy inflation in 2024 could be three times higher than the overall inflation in Ukraine. Of course, this will lead to a decrease in the consumption of dairy products in favor of other products with a lower degree of price increase,” experts predict.
Analysts believe that the main reason for the rapid rise in raw material prices is the high butter prices, which have already reached their peak.
“It is very likely that in October European traders may significantly reduce their demand prices for Ukrainian products. In this case, the chase for raw materials in Ukraine will definitely stop, and starting in November, milk purchase prices will stop rising. And if the rise in prices causes a significant drop in sales of dairy products, it is even possible that, despite the period of the lowest supply in the season, there will be a certain decrease in the cost of raw materials,” Infagro summarized.
In January-August 2024, Ukraine increased its foreign trade in dairy products by 7.9% to $307 compared to the same period last year, the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP) reported on its Facebook page.
According to the report, the negative balance of exports and imports of dairy products slightly increased compared to the same period last year and amounted to -$32.6 million against -$31.2 million. At the same time, imports were 1.24 times higher than exports; in January-August 2023, this excess was 1.25 times.
According to analysts, exports in January-August 2024 increased to $137.3 million, which is 8.3% higher than in the same period last year.
The growth in exports compared to the previous year was recorded for fermented milk products (+27% in physical terms and +32% in value), whey (+43% and +38%, respectively), and cheeses of all kinds (+40% and +31%, respectively).
At the same time, exports of butter and milk fats decreased significantly (-25%), while the drop in value amounted to 9%, which is explained by a significant increase in prices for these products this year.
Experts noted that import volumes in January-August 2024 increased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year – up to $170 million. At the same time, growth is observed in the categories of butter and milk fats – 2.3 times in volume terms, twice in value terms, as well as cheeses (+8% in volume terms).
Ukraine also reduced imports (in physical terms) of milk and cream not condensed (drinking) by 3.3 times, whey by 28% and fermented milk products by 16%, the UGCC summarized.
