Polish dairy processors are concerned about the closure of their market for the export of Ukrainian dairy products and expect the use of the reciprocity principle, which will lead to a drop in imports of Polish dairy products by Ukraine, the analytical agency Infagro reported.
“Today I am most afraid of the use of the principle of reciprocity of Ukraine in trade relations with Poland. If Ukraine closes its market for us, we will find ourselves in a very difficult situation. Today 6% of all our cheese exports go to Ukraine. The volume of imports of dairy products to Poland from Ukraine was small compared with Polish exports to Ukraine. Therefore, the income and loss account is obvious,” Agnieszka Maliszewska, vice president of COGECA and director of Izba Mleka (Poland) was quoted by the agency.
Her concerns are shared by Marcin Gidzik, president of Polish Milk Processors Association. According to the principle of reciprocity, we can expect Polish exports to slow down unless other agreements are reached between the Ministers of Agriculture,” he said in an interview with portalspozywczy.pl.
According to his information, in January-March 2023 Ukraine exported to Poland 1 ton of products marked with code CN 0401 – non concentrated milk and cream without added sugar, 60 tons of butter or other milk fats and 710 tons of milk powder.
In the same period Poland exported 2,213 tons of cheese, 1,080 tons of whey and 1,312 tons of fermented products to Ukraine.
Revenue from the export of dairy products from Ukraine in September reached a record since the beginning of the year – $35.9 million, which is 9.2% more than in August 2022, and 2.45 times more than in September 2021.
According to the website of the Association of Milk Producers, such growth was facilitated by high export prices for dairy products and the preferential regime introduced by the EU for the export and transit of Ukrainian goods.
It is specified that in September Ukraine exported 4,900 tonnes of milk powder (more by 51% compared to August 2022) in the amount of $15.8 million (more by 39.8%), 1,100 tonnes of cheese (up 8.9%) worth $5.08 million (up 3.7%), as well as 327 tonnes of fermented milk products (up 19.6%).
At the same time, foreign supplies of butter in September decreased to 1,960 tonnes (down 8.25% compared to August) for a total of $11.3 million (down 5.7%), milk and whole cream – to 2,650 tonnes (down 25.7%) for $1.37 million (down 28.1%).
According to the union, whey exports fell to 1,960 tonnes in September due to problems with its delivery to the largest buyers in China and Malaysia, caused by Russian aggression.
The association clarified that the total import of dairy products to Ukraine in September decreased by 19% compared to August due to the cheap hryvnia. In general, dairy products worth $16.3 million were imported to Ukraine during the month.
It also underlined that a seasonal reduction in dairy exports should be expected in October, but its figures will still be high compared to last year.
Ukraine, in the context of a full-scale Russian military invasion in January-August 2022, exported 59.4 thousand tons of dairy products, which is comparable to last year.
As reported on the Facebook page of the association “Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club” (UCAB) on Monday, the supply of dairy products to foreign markets grew especially rapidly in August – up to 12.7 thousand tons, which is twice as high as in August 2021.
According to the UCAB, in August 2022, Ukraine exported 3.58 thousand tons of non-condensed milk and cream (a threefold increase compared to June), 3.26 thousand tons of condensed milk and cream (twice as much), 273 tons of butter dish (50% less), 2.53 thousand tons of whey (72% more), 2.14 thousand tons of butter (3.5 times more), 1 thousand tons of cheeses of all types (62% more more).
In addition, in the summer of 2022 (June-August), Ukraine exported 31.5 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 52% of actual exports for the eight months of this year, as well as 40% more than in the same period of 2021.
The largest importers of Ukrainian products for eight months of 2022 were Moldova – 4.4 thousand tons, Poland – 2.4 thousand tons, China – 900 tons.
As noted by UCAB, imports of dairy products to Ukraine are gradually declining. Thus, according to its data, 42.3 thousand tons were imported in eight months, which is 37% less than last year. In August, 5 thousand tons of dairy products were imported, of which the majority were cheeses of all kinds (3.1 thousand tons).
“In January-August, the foreign trade balance is passive and amounts to $2.3 million. If in September the export rates remain the same as in August, then the foreign trade balance may already be active and overall trade will be more positive for the industry,” – the association quotes the expert Maxim Gopka.
As reported, in May 2022, the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine association predicted that this year milk production would decrease by 13-16% – to 7.33-7.56 million tons from 8.73 million in 2021, the depth crisis in the industry will be determined by the development of hostilities.
It is expected that the average milk consumption in Ukraine per capita in 2022 will increase by 8% – from 212 kg in 2021 to 229 kg this year due to internal and external migration of the population.
The production of fresh dairy products in Ukraine in May will be 17-20% lower compared to May last year, which corresponds to a reduction in the country’s population due to mass migration abroad during the war, and also correlates with the demand and solvency of Ukrainians.
“The current situation on the Ukrainian market of fresh dairy products can be called relatively stable. Most of the leading producers have increased output to the level of real demand, which stops growing due to a decrease in the population’s solvency in war conditions,” the website of the industry analytical agency Infagro reported on Wednesday.
According to him, the increase in the production of dairy products is now inexpedient, since in the event of a further increase in its production, dairy processors will have to stimulate sales through mass promotions in retail chains.
“Not all operators can now afford such marketing steps, and networks also pay less attention to such tools, there is not enough human resources. Moreover, in the face of a further rise in the cost of logistics, some companies intend to further increase prices, even if this leads to a decrease sales,” the agency said.
It noted that in May in the market of fresh dairy products, as in April, the leading positions will be held by national companies. At the same time, their production is unlikely to continue to grow in the summer months.
As reported, the profile association “Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine” predicted a decline in milk production in Ukraine in 2022 by 13.3-15.9%, to 7.33-7.56 million tons from 8.73 million in 2021 due to for the Russian military invasion.
The competent authorities of Ukraine and Jordan have agreed on the form of a certificate for the export of milk and dairy products from Ukraine, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said.
“This week we opened another market, namely, the export of Ukrainian milk to Jordan. The competent authorities of the two states agreed on the form of a certificate for the export of milk and dairy products from Ukraine. The concrete result of the joint work of diplomats and specialists of the State Service on Food Safety and Consumer Protection,” Kuleba said at an online briefing on Thursday.
He said that Ukrainian dairy products are of very high quality and therefore are in great demand abroad. According to Kuleba, this is the third certificate agreed between Ukraine and Jordan in 2021.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs continues to systematically open new foreign markets for Ukrainian exporters together with the State Service on Food Safety and Consumer Protection. Each new open market provides additional opportunities for Ukrainian companies, the strengthening of our national currency, the arrival of foreign currency to Ukraine, new jobs, taxes to the budget, the best salaries for our citizens,” he said.
The Foreign Minister said that not only exporting companies will benefit from the expansion of Ukrainian goods abroad, but every citizen of Ukraine involved in economic activity.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection have agreed with the competent authority of the State of Kuwait on the form of an export veterinary certificate for the supply of milk and dairy products to this country, the state food service said in a press release on Tuesday.
“The Gulf region, in particular Kuwait, is of interest to many Ukrainian food producers. I am pleased to announce that today we have created additional opportunities for them to earn money in this market thanks to the joint work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Food Service. In the long term, this will also strengthen Ukraine’s position as a supplier of agricultural and food products to Kuwait,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.
The form of this certificate is posted on the website of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection.
“The work on opening new export markets is extremely important, since an increase in Ukrainian exports is a guarantee of the economic growth of our state,” Head of the service Vladyslava Mahaletska said.
