Ukraine exported 1.82 million metric tons of rapeseed during the 2025/2026 marketing year, compared to 3.2 million metric tons in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Germany was the main market for Ukrainian rapeseed, accounting for 876,000 metric tons. Belgium imported 453,000 metric tons, the Netherlands—247,000 metric tons, the Czech Republic—112,000 metric tons, and the United Kingdom—109,000 metric tons.
According to the UGA, the decline in rapeseed exports was due to a lower harvest and the introduction of an export duty on this crop.
In the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine exported 2.7 million metric tons of soybeans, compared to 3.8 million metric tons in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Turkey was the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, purchasing 923,000 metric tons. The top five importers also included the Netherlands (382,000 metric tons), Germany (298,000 metric tons), France (159,000 metric tons), and Egypt (151,000 metric tons).
According to the UGA, the decline in soybean exports was due to a lower harvest and the introduction of an export duty on this crop.
Turkey’s decision to open an import quota for 3 million tons of corn with a reduced tariff rate of 5% has significantly altered market conditions, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“This move is expected to stabilize domestic prices in Turkey and meet high demand. The country’s domestic balance dictates the need for active imports: domestic production amounts to about 8 million tons, while consumption exceeds 10 million tons,” analysts noted.
According to the agency, Ankara’s customs policy remains strict: a 130% tariff applies outside the quota. However, the market is adapting thanks to temporary preferential regimes. Under these conditions, Ukraine is strengthening its presence and already accounts for 85–87% of Turkish imports due to significant supply and favorable logistics.
“Currently, the key competitive factor is the speed of shipments and traders’ willingness to assemble flexible shipments. Market dynamics are driven by raw material shortages within the importing country and the efficiency of logistics chains,” emphasized UkrAgroConsult.
Among the main trends, experts highlighted the transformation of demand due to quotas and the dominance of regional suppliers amid shortages. The agency forecasts that Ukraine will maintain its status as Turkey’s key partner precisely due to the speed of deliveries, despite protective tariffs on non-quota volumes.
The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed will reduce the profitability of these crops, leading to a 30% reduction in soybean acreage in 2026, experts from the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv.
“Our forecasts indicate a possible 30% reduction in soybean acreage compared to the previous season. The export duty acts as an economic barrier, making the cultivation of this crop less attractive to producers. Farmers won’t take losses every year—if the financial result is negative, they’ll simply change their crop mix,” the experts explained.
The business association noted that under normal conditions, corn could be an alternative, but currently its investment appeal is also in question due to rising production costs.
“Prices for fuel and fertilizers have risen significantly, particularly due to the escalation of the situation surrounding Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This significantly increases farmers’ costs for growing corn, which, combined with the low profitability of oilseeds due to tariffs (on soybeans and rapeseed – IF-U), puts farmers in a difficult position ahead of the spring planting season,” the briefing participants emphasized.
Experts expressed confidence that if regulatory policy does not change, there is a risk that farmers will abandon rapeseed and soybean cultivation in the long term. This will lead to domestic processors, who lobbied for the introduction of tariffs to obtain cheap raw materials, eventually facing a physical shortage of those materials due to reduced production.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
The introduction of export duties on rapeseed and soybeans last September caused a redistribution of income from agricultural producers to processors, resulting in total losses for farmers of approximately $200 million, the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to published data, due to a 7% drop in domestic prices relative to global markets, Ukrainian farmers lost $130 million in profits. Small and medium-sized producers, who are unable to export their products independently, were hit the hardest. An additional $50 million was collected from farmers and exporters in the form of duties paid to the state budget.
“The export duty that was introduced is effectively a redistribution of income among producers in favor of processors. Instead of stimulating processing, we have ended up with a mechanism to cover the losses of the processing industry at the expense of crop production,” the ACC noted.
Representatives of the business association emphasized that in the six months since the law took effect, not a single new processing facility has been declared or built in Ukraine. At the same time, existing capacity of 23 million tons already exceeds the total oilseed production volume, which stands at about 20 million tons.
According to ACC estimates, Ukraine’s foreign exchange earnings from oilseed exports during this period decreased by $1 billion. Specifically, revenue from rapeseed exports fell by $700 million (with partial compensation from increased exports of oil and meal, the net loss amounts to $400 million – IF-U). For soybeans, the decline is estimated at $240 million, and for sunflowers, at $345 million.
Experts argue that the arguments of the bill’s initiators regarding the successful experience with sunflower seed tariffs were flawed due to the different physical nature of the crops. As a light product, sunflower seeds are more profitable to process locally, whereas rapeseed and soybeans are heavy crops that are more practical to transport by large vessels to consumption centers. The ACC also highlighted the negative legislative precedent, as protests from leading industry associations—including the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) and the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC)—were ignored during the law’s adoption. Furthermore, this decision has strained relations with European partners and contradicts the processes of European integration.
For his part, Oleg Nivievsky, a professor at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), noted that the total losses incurred by agricultural producers due to the law over a full marketing year could amount to approximately 17 billion UAH. According to his calculations, the rapeseed duty will generate 6.2 billion UAH for the budget but will result in net economic losses of 80–170 million UAH due to reduced farmer incomes. The situation is even worse for soybeans: with budget revenues of 4.1–4.7 billion UAH, farmers will lose 9.1–9.3 billion UAH, resulting in net losses for the country of 200–500 million UAH.
“This is a bad signal for the market, indicating that processing is uncompetitive without state subsidies. A similar logic of ‘utilizing capacity’ is already being applied to the export of scrap metal and timber, which sets an extremely negative precedent,” emphasized Nivievsky, adding that the state’s total economic losses from duties on both crops could reach 280–670 million UAH.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
US President Donald Trump announced an increase in previously imposed universal import duties from 10% to 15% on goods supplied to the United States from all countries of the world.
The head of state made the announcement during a speech on trade policy and the protection of national industry. According to him, the decision is aimed at reducing the trade deficit, stimulating domestic production, and bringing jobs back to the American economy.
As Trump noted, the tariff increase will be part of a broader strategy of economic protectionism, which includes revising the terms of international trade and strengthening support for American manufacturers. The administration expects that the new measures will increase the competitiveness of domestically produced goods.
Economists warn that the increase in duties could lead to higher prices for imported goods in the US, as well as retaliatory measures from trading partners. Analysts do not rule out increased tension in world trade and additional pressure on global supply chains.
The new tariff rates are expected to come into effect after the necessary administrative procedures have been completed. Business representatives have already expressed concern about the possible increase in the cost of raw materials and components used by American companies.
Earlier, the US administration introduced a base import duty rate of 10%, explaining this by the need to protect the national economy and reduce dependence on foreign supplies.
