This article provides a comprehensive overview of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the period from January to August 2024. The analytics are based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN. Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank and Director of Business Development and Marketing, analyzed the main economic trends. The article focuses on GDP, inflation, foreign trade, Ukraine’s public debt, and global economic processes.
Ukraine’s economy: growth dynamics
In the first eight months of 2024, the Ukrainian economy showed a steady recovery. Real GDP grew by 3.7% in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2023, and in July the growth rate accelerated to 4.4%. According to Maxim Urakin, these results are largely due to the early harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic recovery is an encouraging signal. At the same time, the growing negative foreign trade balance is a challenge that requires strengthening domestic production and increasing exports,” emphasizes Maksym Urakin.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit increased by 6.5% to $17.613 billion due to a decline in exports amid an increase in imports. At the same time, international reserves reached a record $42.33 billion, which indicates confidence on the part of international partners.
Inflation and debt
Inflation in Ukraine rose to 7.5% in August, higher than in July (5.4%) and June (4.8%). Month-on-month, prices in August increased by 0.6% compared to July.
Ukraine’s public debt increased by $1.1 billion in dollar terms in the second quarter of 2024. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased to 5.6% per annum, which is a positive signal for financial stability.
“Efficient debt management, including lower interest rates, opens up new opportunities for strategic investments,” said Maksym Urakin.
Global economy: challenges and opportunities
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024. The main drivers remain China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7%, respectively. At the same time, the European economy is showing more modest results: GDP growth in the eurozone is expected to reach 0.9%.
“It is important for Ukraine to seize the opportunity and consolidate its position in the EU markets, ensuring the competitiveness of its goods,” emphasizes Maksym Urakin.
Interestingly, the forecast for oil prices foresees an increase in 2024 but a decline in 2025, which is important for the economies of developing countries.
Conclusions.
Ukraine’s economic performance shows growth, but is accompanied by challenges, such as inflation and a foreign trade deficit. At the same time, the global economy faces risks, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.
“Ukraine needs to create a favorable investment climate and strengthen its export capabilities to ensure long-term stability,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
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