International rating agencies S&P Global and Fitch have downgraded their outlooks for China’s residential real estate market.
real estate, despite Beijing’s announced package of measures to support it.
S&P forecasts a 15% decline in housing sales in China this year, while earlier it expected a 5% decline. According to the agency’s forecast, published on Thursday, the volume of sales of residential real estate in the country will total less than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) this year, about half the peak level recorded in 2021.
Fitch this week also worsened its forecast for home sales in the PRC: the agency now expects sales to fall by 15-20% this year, rather than the 5-10% previously estimated.
The lowered forecasts show that rating agencies are not confident in the success of a large-scale package of market support measures, the launch of which the Chinese authorities announced in May. In particular, it includes the abolition of the lower limit on mortgage rates, as well as lowering down payment requirements for real estate buyers using mortgages. In addition, Beijing urged authorities in cities with a surplus stock of ready-made houses to buy back properties at reasonable prices for later use as affordable housing.
Prices of new buildings in China’s major cities fell for the 11th straight month in May. According to a report by China’s State Statistics Office (SSO), the cost of new housing in the country’s 70 largest cities fell 3.9% year-on-year last month, the most since June 2015.
Real estate accounts for about 78% of Chinese residents’ wealth, Bloomberg notes.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts the average oil price to reach $80 per barrel in 2023, according to its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Next year, it is expected to drop to $75 per barrel, and in 2025 – to $70 per barrel.
According to the agency’s analysts, the Japanese yen to the US dollar exchange rate will be around 145 yen/$1 at the end of this year, 135 yen at the end of 2024, and 125 yen at the end of 2025.
The single currency exchange rate in the next three years will be EUR 0.92/USD 1.
The pound sterling is expected to reach $1.25 in 2023-2024 and $1.2 in 2025.
The forecast for the Chinese currency at the end of this year is 7.2 yuan/$1, and for the next two years – 7.3 yuan/$1.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4% from 2.9% expected in June.
“The European gas crisis, high inflation and a sharp acceleration in the pace of tightening of monetary policy in the world entail serious consequences for the economic outlook,” the updated Global Economic Outlook (GEO) said.
The global GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered to 1.7% from 2.7%.
The eurozone and UK economies will fall into recession as early as this year, while the US will face a mild recession in mid-2023, Fitch predicts.
Eurozone GDP, according to the agency’s new forecast, will decrease by 0.1% in 2023 due to the consequences of the gas crisis (in June, an increase of 2.1% was expected).
The new forecast takes into account the complete or almost complete cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia to Europe. Fitch experts note that, despite the EU’s attempts to find alternative sources of supply, the supply of gas in the region will be significantly reduced in the near term, which will affect the industrial sector.
The growth forecast for the US economy for the current year has been worsened to 1.7% from 2.9%, for 2023 – to 0.5% from 1.5%.
“The recovery of the Chinese economy is constrained by quarantine restrictions and a downturn in the real estate market, and therefore we expect China’s GDP to increase by 2.8% in 2022 and grow by 4.5% next year,” Fitch said in a review. In July, the growth of the Chinese economy was predicted by 3.7% and 5.3%, respectively.
High and persistent inflation and rising inflationary expectations are forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) to become more hawkish in recent months, Fitch said. The base interest rates of the world’s leading central banks are rising at a much faster rate than one might expect.
According to Fitch’s forecast, the Fed will raise the rate to 4% by the end of this year and keep it at this level throughout 2023, while the ECB will bring the lending rate to 2% by December of this year. The base rate of the Bank of England will reach 3.25% by February 2023, agency experts believe.