International rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) (LTFC) at ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) pending the completion of the restructuring of obligations for which Ukraine has already suspended payments or announced that it will suspend them in the future.
“Ukraine’s LTFC IDR will remain ‘RD’ until Fitch makes a determination that the exchange has been completed and normalized with a substantial majority of external commercial creditors,” the agency said in a statement on its website.
Fitch recalled that Ukraine continues the process of restructuring its external commercial debt. Following the successful completion of the Eurobond swap in September 2024, the government ordered to temporarily suspend payments on Cargill’s $0.7bn external commercial loan from September 3, 2024, Ukrenergo’s $825m state-guaranteed Eurobonds from November 9, 2024 and GDP-guarantees from May 31, 2025.
In addition, the agency affirmed the IDR on local loans of “CCC+”. “The higher local currency IDRs reflect Ukraine’s continued servicing of local currency debt as part of the ongoing external commercial debt restructuring process, which confirms our expectation of preferential treatment for local currency debt,” Fitch explained.
It pointed out that the structure of the government bond debt – only 1.3% held by non-residents with an overwhelming share held by the NBU and domestic banks, mostly state-owned – limits Ukraine’s benefits from any restructuring, as it creates potential fiscal costs (including bank recapitalization) and risks to the stability of the financial sector, hindering the development of the domestic debt market.
Fitch expects the war to continue through 2025 within the current broad parameters. “Despite some Russian territorial gains since late 2023, Western military support and strong resolve should allow Ukraine to avoid significant additional territorial losses,” the agency says.
It suggests that the new US administration’s stated goal of ending the war could lead to an agreed ceasefire, but a peace deal is unlikely due to the difficult concessions that would be required from both sides. The parameters of an agreed ceasefire, including security guarantees for Ukraine and territory that would remain under Russian control, remain uncertain, Fitch added.
It estimates that the government budget deficit will remain high at 19.1-19.2% of GDP in 2024-2025, despite recently approved tax increases, due to high defense spending and expected reductions in foreign grants. Significant fiscal consolidation will be limited by the continuation of the war as well as reconstruction costs in the event of a prolonged ceasefire, which is likely to maintain high dependence on foreign financing.
Fitch forecasts Ukraine’s debt to rise to 90.8% of GDP in 2024 from 84.4% in 2023, with 77% of external debt highly concessional and 74% denominated in USD. The agency adds that uncertainty over near-term external financing has eased as the G7 is likely to provide around $50bn in loans backed by proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Fitch also expects the current account deficit to widen to 8.4% of GDP in 2024 and 13.6% of GDP in 2025, as capacity constraints (e.g. labor and energy) will restrain export growth. Rising consumer spending, military imports, easing currency restrictions and projected lower subsidies will outweigh the projected decline in imports of services from Ukrainians abroad, the agency added. It estimates that official financing will cover external borrowing needs, with international reserves rising to $42bn in 2024 from $40.5bn in 2023. Fitch also forecasts inflation to average 9.3% in 2025, up from 6.2% in 2024, as rapid wage growth amid labor shortages and skills mismatches could keep price pressures on domestic demand. At the same time, growth will slow to 2.9% in 2025 from 4% in 2024 due to persistent labor and energy shortages. “A durable and credible ceasefire could significantly boost the country’s growth prospects in 2025-2026,” the agency noted.
Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating to “Restricted Default” from “C” on Tuesday, citing the expiration of the 2026 Eurobond repayment grace period, Reuters reported.
Ukraine defaulted on its bonds after a law came into effect allowing it to suspend foreign debt payments until October 1. Earlier this month, Ukraine began the process of getting bondholders’ consent to restructure $20 billion worth of international bonds.
Ukraine has been pushing hard since Russia’s invasion to restructure its wartime debt as part of efforts to regain access to international capital markets.
Fitch maintained Ukraine’s local currency (LC) debt rating at ‘CCC-‘ as it expects LC debt to be excluded from a restructuring deal with external commercial creditors.
Rating agency S&P Global also downgraded Ukraine to “selective” default from August 2.
Fitch does not usually assign outlooks to countries rated CCC+ or lower.
International rating agencies S&P Global and Fitch have downgraded their outlooks for China’s residential real estate market.
real estate, despite Beijing’s announced package of measures to support it.
S&P forecasts a 15% decline in housing sales in China this year, while earlier it expected a 5% decline. According to the agency’s forecast, published on Thursday, the volume of sales of residential real estate in the country will total less than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) this year, about half the peak level recorded in 2021.
Fitch this week also worsened its forecast for home sales in the PRC: the agency now expects sales to fall by 15-20% this year, rather than the 5-10% previously estimated.
The lowered forecasts show that rating agencies are not confident in the success of a large-scale package of market support measures, the launch of which the Chinese authorities announced in May. In particular, it includes the abolition of the lower limit on mortgage rates, as well as lowering down payment requirements for real estate buyers using mortgages. In addition, Beijing urged authorities in cities with a surplus stock of ready-made houses to buy back properties at reasonable prices for later use as affordable housing.
Prices of new buildings in China’s major cities fell for the 11th straight month in May. According to a report by China’s State Statistics Office (SSO), the cost of new housing in the country’s 70 largest cities fell 3.9% year-on-year last month, the most since June 2015.
Real estate accounts for about 78% of Chinese residents’ wealth, Bloomberg notes.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts the average oil price to reach $80 per barrel in 2023, according to its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Next year, it is expected to drop to $75 per barrel, and in 2025 – to $70 per barrel.
According to the agency’s analysts, the Japanese yen to the US dollar exchange rate will be around 145 yen/$1 at the end of this year, 135 yen at the end of 2024, and 125 yen at the end of 2025.
The single currency exchange rate in the next three years will be EUR 0.92/USD 1.
The pound sterling is expected to reach $1.25 in 2023-2024 and $1.2 in 2025.
The forecast for the Chinese currency at the end of this year is 7.2 yuan/$1, and for the next two years – 7.3 yuan/$1.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded the VR of ProCredit Bank (Kyiv) from ‘cc’ to ‘ccc-‘ and affirmed its Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘CCC-‘ and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR at ‘CCC’.
“The upgrade reflects our view of ProCredit Bank’s moderately lower risk of failure, driven by stronger asset quality and profitability due to a less severe operating environment than previously expected,” the agency said in a statement on its website on Friday.
It added that the affirmation of the national long-term rating at ‘AA(ukr)’ with a ‘Stable’ outlook reflects the bank’s continued creditworthiness in the local currency relative to other Ukrainian issuers.
Fitch noted that ProCredit Bank’s IDRs are backed by the support of its parent ProCredit Holding AG & Co. KGaA (‘BBB/Stable Outlook’/bbb).
The agency added that the ‘ccc-‘ shareholder support rating reflects the view of the strategic importance of the Ukrainian bank for the holding, as well as potential limitations on the bank’s ability to use the parent company’s support, in particular, to service foreign currency liabilities.
It is noted that a default on priority foreign currency liabilities remains a real possibility due to the war, however, the bank maintains generally adequate foreign currency liquidity compared to its needs, which is facilitated by various capital and currency control measures introduced since the beginning of the war.
According to Fitch, ProCredit Bank will continue to service its external obligations: at the end of the first quarter of 2023, its external debt stood at a moderate 10% of total funding, consisting of EUR20 million of subordinated bonds and funding from international financial institutions.
The agency noted that the gradual improvement in the operating environment for Ukrainian banks has resulted in a more resilient loan portfolio quality for ProCredit Bank, as well as higher revenues and profitability than previously expected. As a result, although capital risks remain very high, Fitch believes that the bank is now less likely to face a material capital shortfall.
The agency recalled that ProCredit Bank’s asset quality indicators deteriorated sharply after the outbreak of the war, resulting in significant provisioning charges (3.4 times operating profit in 2022). “Risks to asset quality remain elevated and dependent on the outcome of the war, despite an improved operating environment in the first quarter of 2023,” Fitch stated.
It added that the bank earned UAH 211 million in net profit in the first quarter of this year after a net loss of UAH 1.8 billion in 2022, and expects an improvement in provisioning.
It is noted that the bank managed to increase its core capital ratio from 9.6% to 11.7% in the first quarter, but it remains modest.
ProCredit Bank was ranked 15th among 65 operating banks in Ukraine in terms of total assets (UAH 39.21 billion) at the beginning of June. Its net profit for the five-month period amounted to UAH 384.43 million.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) in foreign and national currencies and the senior unsecured rating of Metinvest Mining and Metallurgical Group at ‘ССС’, the recovery rating is ‘RR4’.
“Metinvest’s ratings reflect the company’s sufficient funding over the next six months, supported by cash flow generation from its international asset base, few significant short-term maturities and existing cash position. This also reflects increased operational risk for the company following the military invasion Russia to Ukraine, including the occupation or damage of some of its assets, as well as severe logistical restrictions,” Fitch explained in a press release on Tuesday.
At the same time, it is noted that about a third of the company’s EBITDA in 2022 will be generated by its international assets.
The ‘CCC’ rating reflects Metinvest’s increased operational and financial risks. Ferrexpo plc has a higher ‘CCC+’ rating due to its lack of financial debt. Metinvest’s business profile benefits from upstream assets outside of Ukraine, maintaining its rating above Interpipe Holdings plc (CCC-), whose assets are wholly concentrated in Ukraine,” the agency explains.
Analysts predict that Metinvest’s sales will be around 50% of 2022 levels, with a gradual recovery between 2023 and 2025.
In addition, experts suggest that Metinvest will be considered an operating company in the event of bankruptcy and will be reorganized, but not liquidated.
According to analysts, Metinvest has limited liquidity: the company keeps most of its cash in offshore zones. The company continues to generate significant cash flows from its coal assets in the US, as well as its steel mills in Europe, and its iron ore and steel assets in Ukraine. This has helped offset the outflow of working capital in recent months.
Metinvest has minor upcoming maturities in 2022: its next significant maturity is $176 million due in April 2023 in connection with the redemption of its bonds, according to a press release.
As Yury Ryzhenkov, general director of Metinvest, said, the company is servicing its credit obligations, including Eurobonds, and intends to continue doing so in the future.
“We have not declared force majeure on debt. Unlike many Ukrainian issuers, we continue to service our entire loan portfolio, including planned payments on Eurobonds. And I think that we should have enough strength to do this,” he said. he.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Its enterprises are located in Ukraine – in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, in European countries. In particular, in Bulgaria there is a Promet Steel plant with a capacity of 500 thousand tons of rolled metal per year, in Italy – Metinvest Trametal and Ferriera Valsider with a total capacity of 1.2 million tons per year. In the UK, the company owns the Spartan UK plant, which can produce 200 thousand tons of rolled steel per year.
The main shareholders of the holding are the SKM group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), which jointly manage it.
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest group.
