Germany’s economy shows no signs of recovery: The country’s GDP will decline again in 2024, and stagnation is expected in 2025, according to a review by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
Experts expect Germany’s GDP to decline by 0.2% this year. The decline will be marked for the second year in a row – in 2023, the German economy shrank by 0.3%. In 2025, Germany’s GDP growth will be zero, analysts predict.
The autumn forecast predicted that the country’s GDP would decline by 0.1% in 2024 and grow by 0.5% in 2025.
The main reasons for the deterioration of the forecasts are the expected introduction of US tariffs and the deepening crisis in the German industry, IfW experts say.
“The crisis is largely a crisis of the manufacturing sector,” said Stefan Koots, head of the IfW’s economic forecasting department. – “It shows symptoms typical of the periods following major macro shocks.
“The German economy is struggling with a decline in competitiveness, which is reflected in the weakness of overall economic indicators, which hardly allow us to count on any upward impulses,” the expert added.
The growth rate of consumer prices in Germany will reach the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2% only by the end of 2026, not 2025, as expected in the Institute’s previous forecast. The average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.2%, according to IfW.
Unemployment in Germany will be at 6% this year and 6.3% in 2025 and 2026, according to the IfW. This is worse than the fall forecast of 6.1% for 2025 and 5.9% for 2026.
Experts assume that Germany will be able to reduce the budget deficit from 2.6% of GDP in 2023 to 2.3% this year and 1.9% in 2025. In 2026, the budget deficit is projected at 2.1% of GDP. In the fall, IfW expected the budget deficit to be 1.7% in 2025 and 2026.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video analysis by Maksym Urakin and the Experts Cub think tank on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
FlixBus, the largest bus transportation operator in Europe, is launching three additional international routes from Ukraine to Germany ahead of the winter holidays.
According to the operator’s press service on Monday, the flights will be operated in the directions of Ivano-Frankivsk – Berlin, Chernihiv – Cologne, and Odesa – Bremen.
“FlixBus is launching new routes to Germany to help even more Ukrainians reunite with their families during the Christmas and winter holidays. It is estimated that up to 1.65 million Ukrainians live in Germany, for whom these routes create an opportunity to reach their loved ones in a convenient and comfortable way. For many, this is more than just a trip. FlixBus strives to make these meetings more accessible, especially at such an important time of the year,” the operator’s press service said.
The first flight on the route Odesa – Uman – Vinnytsia – Khmelnytskyi – Ternopil – Lviv – Berlin – Hamburg – Hamburg – Bremen is scheduled for December 10 from Odesa. Departures will take place on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday. In the opposite direction, the bus will run on Monday, Thursday and Saturday.
The flight Chernihiv – Kyiv – Zhytomyr – Rivne – Lviv – Berlin – Magdeburg – Hanover – Dortmund – Essen – Duisburg – Dusseldorf – Cologne Bonn Airport will be launched for the first time on December 16. Reportedly, it is another convenient option for traveling to Cologne, in particular to Cologne-Bonn Airport. The bus will depart on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. In the opposite direction, the bus will depart on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.
The route Ivano-Frankivsk – Lviv – Rzeszow – Kielce – Łódź – Poznan – Berlin will be operated twice a week: on Thursday and Sunday, and in the opposite direction – on Monday and Friday.
On November 1, FlixBus also launched a new route from Kyiv to Munich. The line allows passengers to easily transfer to flights to Italy, France, Croatia, and other European countries.
The company provides direct connections between 29 cities in Germany and 11 cities in Ukraine. FlixBus already has 28 direct bus routes between Ukraine and 8 EU countries. Nine flights connect Ukraine with European airports.
The German labor market faced significant challenges in 2024, reflecting the country’s overall economic difficulties. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in October, the highest since February 2021. The number of unemployed people reached 2.856 million, an increase of 27 thousand compared to the previous month.
Despite strong labor demand in a number of industries, opportunities for the unemployed to find work are recovering slowly. Industry is expected to continue to cut jobs, while demand for specialists in other sectors remains high.
In 2024, Germany introduced a new unemployment benefit, Bürgergeld, which replaced the former Arbeitslosengeld II. In 2024, the benefit amount was increased to € 563.
Thus, 2024 was a period of significant challenges in the labor market for Germany, driven by both internal economic factors and external challenges. The government and business will have to work together to find solutions to stabilize employment and support unemployed citizens.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/riven-bezrobittia-v-nimechchyni-zbilshyvsia-do-6-1-u-zhovtni/
In 2023, dairy farms in the European Union produced 160.8 million tons of raw milk, which is 0.8 million tons more than in 2022 and 15.8 million tons more than in 2013, according to a study by Eurostat.
According to it, most of the milk produced in the EU is used for butter and cheese production. Thus, in 2023, 149.3 million tons of raw milk were supplied to dairy plants, which was used to produce a number of fresh and ready-made dairy products.
In turn, EU dairies produced 22.0 million tons of drinking milk and 7.8 million tons of fermented milk products in 2023. At the same time, 58.2 million tons of whole milk and 17.4 million tons of skim milk were used to produce 10.6 million tons of cheese. Another 45.4 million tons of whole milk was used to produce 2.3 million tons of butter, the study says.
Germany became the leader in the production of milk and dairy products in the European Union, accounting for 19% of the total production of drinking milk. It was also a leading producer of fermented milk products (27%), butter (20%) and cheese (22%).
Spain was the second largest producer of drinking milk (15% of the EU total), followed by France (13%). The Netherlands was the second largest producer of fermented milk products (17%), followed by Poland (10%).
France was the second largest producer of both butter and cheese (18% of the EU total for each product). Ireland was third in butter production (13%) and Italy was third in cheese production (13%).
As of September 30, 2024, 4 million 197.37 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, compared to 4 million 163.66 thousand citizens a month earlier, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of August 2024, the largest absolute increase in the number of recipients was observed in Germany (+7,005; +0.6%), Poland (+4,645; +0.5%) and Spain (+3,170; +1.5%),” the agency said.
It noted that the number of beneficiaries decreased in France (-570; -0.9%) and Italy (-10; -0.0%).
Thus, in September, the growth in the number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status slowed to 33.7 thousand from 39.8 thousand in August.
According to Eurostat, despite Germany’s deprivation of almost 237,000 people of this status in July, it still remains the country with the largest number of them in the EU and the world – 1,129,34 thousand at the end of September, or 26.9% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also includes Poland – 979.84 thousand, or 23.3%, and the Czech Republic – 378.48 thousand, or 9.0%.
Spain (218.30 thousand), Romania (172.41 thousand), and Italy (166.79 thousand) follow with a significant lag.
At the same time, Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece and Cyprus take into account some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in September 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (34.7), Lithuania (28.1) and Poland (26.8), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.3.
It is also said that as of September 30, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.3% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (45.0%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for almost a third (32.3%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (22.7%) of the total. A year earlier, the share of women was 46.5%, children 33.7% and adult men 19.9%.
At the end of September 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand people with temporary protection status in Slovakia – 126.97 thousand, the Netherlands – 119.01 thousand, and Ireland – 107.93 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Belgium – 84.54 thousand, Austria – 81.91 thousand, Lithuania – 81.07 thousand, Norway – 76.11 thousand, Finland – 67.27 thousand, Switzerland – 66.63 thousand, Bulgaria – 64.32 thousand, Portugal – 63.66 thousand and France – 60.10 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat).
This is followed by Latvia – 46.99 thousand people, Sweden – 44.63 thousand, Hungary – 37.99 thousand, Denmark – 36.93 thousand, Estonia – 34.24 thousand, Greece – 31.78 thousand, Croatia – 25.40 thousand, Cyprus – 21.68 thousand, Iceland – 3.92 thousand, Luxembourg – 3.82 thousand, Malta – 2.16 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.66 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2025 to March 4, 2026.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, and 6.752 million in the world as a whole, which is 38 thousand and 27 thousand more than as of September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, between August 1 and October 3, more than 120,000 people left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active hostilities. In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, have been evacuated.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.8 million this year.
In the new report, the National Bank confirmed its expectation that Ukrainians will start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflows in 2026 to 0.2 million from 0.4 million.
Germany increased exports of goods to Russia by 3.6% in September compared to August, according to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). At the same time, imports from Russia rose by 20.1%.
On a year-on-year basis, September exports to Russia rose 5.6%, but imports from Russia fell 34.4%. Overall, between January and September, German exports from Germany to Russia decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 53.6%.
Total seasonally adjusted German exports fell 1.7% in September to €128.2 billion, the first decline since June. By contrast, imports rose 2.1% to €111.3 billion.
Exports to the European Union in September were down 1.8% from August, while shipments to non-EU countries fell 1.6%. Exports to the US increased by 4.8%, exports to China decreased by 3.7% and exports to the UK decreased by 4.9%. Imports from the EU increased by 1.6% and imports from outside the EU increased by 2.6%. In particular, imports from China increased by 5.6%, from the US decreased by 0.3% and from the UK by 0.6%.
Germany’s foreign trade balance surplus narrowed to €17 billion in September from €21.4 billion in August.
