The period of low natural gas prices at the Henry Hub in the U.S. is coming to an end, analysts at Wood Mackenzie warn.
Experts forecast prices will rise to $5 per MMBtu (1 million British thermal units) by 2035, whereas for most of the past decade they have hovered between $2 and $4 per MMBtu.
“Sustained growth in electricity demand from the artificial intelligence sector and a slowdown in U.S. natural gas supply growth point to a structural shift in the factors driving Henry Hub prices,” according to a Wood Mackenzie report.
Stable gas prices have facilitated the development of LNG export infrastructure in the U.S., as well as natural gas-fired power generation, which currently meets the growing energy needs of data centers for AI development. Experts note that the continuation of these conditions is no longer guaranteed, as demand for gas continues to grow steadily, while increasing supply is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive.
“The conditions that allowed Henry Hub prices to remain at $2–4 per MMBtu for most of the past decade are no longer fully in effect,” notes Kristi Kramer, head of LNG market strategy and development at Wood Mackenzie. “Rapid field development, virtually free associated gas, and annual productivity gains kept prices consistently low. However, the impact of these favorable factors has largely run its course.”
“The power sector alone will require an additional 17 billion cubic feet of gas per day by the mid-2030s, even though the most productive parts of gas fields are already being developed. For supply to increase further, prices will have to rise,” says Kramer.
In 2025, the number of investment decisions to build new LNG export capacity in the U.S. reached a record high, and final decisions on a number of other projects are expected to be made in 2026. LNG production capacity is expected to more than double compared to current levels. In the early 2030s, the U.S. will account for more than a third of global LNG supply, and demand will continue to grow into the 2040s, experts predict.
At the same time, as the highest-quality gas fields—including those in the Permian Basin—are developed, production will become less productive and more geologically challenging, Wood Mackenzie warns.
